The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility

Rising global temperatures are threatening biodiversity. Studies on the impact of temperature on natural populations usually use lethal or viability thresholds, termed the ‘critical thermal limit’ (CTL). However, this overlooks important sublethal impacts of temperature that could affect species’ persistence. Here we discuss a critical but overlooked trait: fertility, which can deteriorate at temperatures less severe than an organism’s lethal limit. We argue that studies examining the ecological and evolutionary impacts of climate change should consider the ‘thermal fertility limit’ (TFL) of species; we propose that a framework for the design of TFL studies across taxa be developed. Given the importance of fertility for population persistence, understanding how climate change affects TFLs is vital for the assessment of future biodiversity impacts

Numerical groundwater flow modeling under future climate change in the Central Rift Valley Lakes Basin; Ethiopia

\ua9 2024 The AuthorsStudy area: Katar and Meki subbasins, Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia.Study focus: This research was carried out to characterized the recharge mechanism and quantify the steady-state groundwater balance and its sensitivity to future climate change. A groundwater simulation model was constructed and calibrated using a hydro-geo spatial dataset. Three regional climate models were used to assess the potential impact of changes in future precipitation on the recharge rate and groundwater balance components.New Hydrogeological Insight: Groundwater potential assessment depends on accurate estimation of the recharge rate. Precipitation contributed 11.95% and 11.96% to groundwater recharge in the Katar and Meki subbasins, respectively. The steady-state numerical groundwater model was calibrated and the model performed in the ranges of R2: 0.95–0.99; RMSE: 16.17–25.18; and MAE: 12.69–24.55, demonstrating \u27excellent\u27 model performance. In particular, the model exhibited high sensitivity to changes in the recharge rate and horizontal hydraulic conductivity. Future change in precipitation caused a reduction in groundwater potential in the range of 6.24–40.32% by the 2040 s and 2070 s, respectively, in the Katar subbasin. Likewise, the Meki Subbasin will experience a reduction in groundwater potential in the range of 0.29–37.17% by the 2040 s and 2070 s, respectively. These results emphasize how crucial it is for future water resource development initiatives to take into account climate variability for sustainable groundwater development

Impact of proctoring on success rates for percutaneous revascularisation of coronary chronic total occlusions.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of proctoring for chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in six UK centres. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 587 CTO procedures from six UK centres and compared success rates of operators who had received proctorship with success rates of the same operators before proctorship (pre-proctored) and operators in the same institutions who had not been proctored (non-proctored). There were 232 patients in the pre-proctored/non-proctored group and 355 patients in the post-proctored group. Complexity was assessed by calculating the Japanese CTO (JCTO) score for each case. RESULTS: CTO PCI success was greater in the post-proctored compared with the pre-proctored/non-proctored group (77.5% vs 62.1%, p<0.0001). In more complex cases where JCTO≥2, the difference in success was greater (70.7% vs 49.5%, p=0.0003). After proctoring, there was an increase in CTO PCI activity in centres from 2.5% to 3.5%, p<0.0001 (as a proportion of total PCI), and the proportion of very difficult cases with JCTO score ≥3 increased from 15.3% (35/229) to 29.7% (105/354), p<0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: Proctoring resulted in an increase in procedural success for CTO PCI, an increase in complex CTO PCI and an increase in total CTO PCI activity. Proctoring may be a valuable way to improve access to CTO PCI and the likelihood of procedural success

A Unifying Theory of Biological Function

A new theory that naturalizes biological function is explained and compared with earlier etiological and causal role theories. Etiological theories explain functions from how they are caused over their evolutionary history. Causal role theories analyze how functional mechanisms serve the current capacities of their containing system. The new proposal unifies the key notions of both kinds of theories, but goes beyond them by explaining how functions in an organism can exist as factors with autonomous causal efficacy. The goal-directedness and normativity of functions exist in this strict sense as well. The theory depends on an internal physiological or neural process that mimics an organism’s fitness, and modulates the organism’s variability accordingly. The structure of the internal process can be subdivided into subprocesses that monitor specific functions in an organism. The theory matches well with each intuition on a previously published list of intuited ideas about biological functions, including intuitions that have posed difficulties for other theories

Vitamin D and subsequent all-age and premature mortality: a systematic review

&lt;br&gt;Background: All-cause mortality in the population &#60; 65 years is 30% higher in Glasgow than in equally deprived Liverpool and Manchester. We investigated a hypothesis that low vitamin D in this population may be associated with premature mortality via a systematic review and meta-analysis.&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Methods: Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library and grey literature sources were searched until February 2012 for relevant studies. Summary statistics were combined in an age-stratified meta-analysis.&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Results: Nine studies were included in the meta-analysis, representing 24,297 participants, 5,324 of whom died during follow-up. The pooled hazard ratio for low compared to high vitamin D demonstrated a significant inverse association (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.12-1.27) between vitamin D levels and all-cause mortality after adjustment for available confounders. In an age-stratified meta-analysis, the hazard ratio for older participants was 1.25 (95% CI 1.14-1.36) and for younger participants 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.24).&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Conclusions: Low vitamin D status is inversely associated with all-cause mortality but the risk is higher amongst older individuals and the relationship is prone to residual confounding. Further studies investigating the association between vitamin D deficiency and all-cause mortality in younger adults with adjustment for all important confounders (or using randomised trials of supplementation) are required to clarify this relationship.&lt;/br&gt

Hierarchical Neural Network Architecture In Keyword Spotting

Keyword Spotting (KWS) provides the start signal of ASR problem, and thus it is essential to ensure a high recall rate. However, its real-time property requires low computation complexity. This contradiction inspires people to find a suitable model which is small enough to perform well in multi environments. To deal with this contradiction, we implement the Hierarchical Neural Network(HNN), which is proved to be effective in many speech recognition problems. HNN outperforms traditional DNN and CNN even though its model size and computation complexity are slightly less. Also, its simple topology structure makes easy to deploy on any device.Comment: To be submitted in part to IEEE ICASSP 201

Mycolactone Diffuses into the Peripheral Blood of Buruli Ulcer Patients - Implications for Diagnosis and Disease Monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium ulcerans, the causative agent of Buruli ulcer (BU), is unique among human pathogens in its capacity to produce a polyketide-derived macrolide called mycolactone, making this molecule an attractive candidate target for diagnosis and disease monitoring. Whether mycolactone diffuses from ulcerated lesions in clinically accessible samples and is modulated by antibiotic therapy remained to be established. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: Peripheral blood and ulcer exudates were sampled from patients at various stages of antibiotic therapy in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Total lipids were extracted from serum, white cell pellets and ulcer exudates with organic solvents. The presence of mycolactone in these extracts was then analyzed by a recently published, field-friendly method using thin layer chromatography and fluorescence detection. This approach did not allow us to detect mycolactone accurately, because of a high background due to co-extracted human lipids. We thus used a previously established approach based on high performance liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. By this means, we could identify structurally intact mycolactone in ulcer exudates and serum of patients, and evaluate the impact of antibiotic treatment on the concentration of mycolactone. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study provides the proof of concept that assays based on mycolactone detection in serum and ulcer exudates can form the basis of BU diagnostic tests. However, the identification of mycolactone required a technology that is not compatible with field conditions and point-of-care assays for mycolactone detection remain to be worked out. Notably, we found mycolactone in ulcer exudates harvested at the end of antibiotic therapy, suggesting that the toxin is eliminated by BU patients at a slow rate. Our results also indicated that mycolactone titres in the serum may reflect a positive response to antibiotics, a possibility that it will be interesting to examine further through longitudinal studies

A systematic review on health resilience to economic crises

Background The health effects of recent economic crises differ markedly by population group. The objective of this systematic review is to examine evidence from longitudinal studies on factors influencing resilience for any health outcome or health behaviour among the general population living in countries exposed to financial crises. Methods We systematically reviewed studies from six electronic databases (EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science) which used quantitative longitudinal study designs and included: (i) exposure to an economic crisis; (ii) changes in health outcomes/behaviours over time; (iii) statistical tests of associations of health risk and/or protective factors with health outcomes/behaviours. The quality of the selected studies was appraised using the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. PRISMA reporting guidelines were followed. Results From 14,584 retrieved records, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies were conducted across 10 countries in Asia, Europe and North America over the past two decades. Ten socio-demographic factors that increased or protected against health risk were identified: gender, age, education, marital status, household size, employment/occupation, income/ financial constraints, personal beliefs, health status, area of residence, and social relations. These studies addressed physical health, mortality, suicide and suicide attempts, mental health, and health behaviours. Women’s mental health appeared more susceptible to crises than men’s. Lower income levels were associated with greater increases in cardiovascular disease, mortality and worse mental health. Employment status was associated with changes in mental health. Associations with age, marital status, and education were less consistent, although higher education was associated with healthier behaviours. Conclusions Despite widespread rhetoric about the importance of resilience, there was a dearth of studies which operationalised resilience factors. Future conceptual and empirical research is needed to develop the epidemiology of resilience

Presenting patient data in the electronic care record: the role of timelines

OBJECTIVE: To establish the current level of awareness and investigate the use of timelines within clinical computing systems as an organized display of the electronic patient record (EPR). DESIGN: Multicentre survey conducted using questionnaires and interview. SETTING: Seven UK hospitals and several general practice surgeries. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 120 healthcare professionals completed a questionnaire which directed structured interviews. Participants fell into two cohorts according to whether or not they had used clinical timelines, which gave 60 timeline users and 60 prospective timeline users. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: To investigate the awareness of timelines, and the potential benefits of timelines within clinical computing systems. RESULTS: Fifty-eight percent of participants had not heard of the specific term timelines despite 75% of users utilizing a form of timeline on a daily basis. The potential benefits of future timelines were clinical audit (95%CI 77.6-91.6), increased time efficiency (95%CI 77.7-91.6%), reduced clinical error (95%CI 71.0-86.7) and improved patient safety (95%CI 70.0-85.9). One continuous timeline view between primary and secondary care was considered to be of great potential benefit in allowing communication via a unified patient record. CONCLUSIONS: The concept of timelines has enjoyed proven success in healthcare in the USA and in other sectors worldwide. Clinicians are supportive of timelines in healthcare. Formal input from clinicians should be sought when designing and implementing computer systems in healthcare. Timelines in healthcare support clinicians cognitive processes by improving the amount of data available and improving the way in which data are presented