Beyond inflation targeting: Assessing the impacts and policy alternatives

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The normative underpinnings of population-level alcohol use: An individual-level simulation model

Background. By defining what is “normal,” appropriate, expected, and unacceptable, social norms shape human behavior. However, the individual-level mechanisms through which social norms impact population-level trends in health-relevant behaviors are not well understood. Aims. To test the ability of social norms mechanisms to predict changes in population-level drinking patterns. Method. An individual-level model was developed to simulate dynamic normative mechanisms and behavioral rules underlying drinking behavior over time. The model encompassed descriptive and injunctive drinking norms and their impact on frequency and quantity of alcohol use. A microsynthesis initialized in 1979 was used as a demographically representative synthetic U.S. population. Three experiments were performed in order to test the modelled normative mechanisms. Results. Overall, the experiments showed limited influence of normative interventions on population-level alcohol use. An increase in the desire to drink led to the most meaningful changes in the population’s drinking behavior. The findings of the experiments underline the importance of autonomy, that is, the degree to which an individual is susceptible to normative influence. Conclusion. The model was able to predict theoretically plausible changes in drinking patterns at the population level through the impact of social mechanisms. Future applications of the model could be used to plan norms interventions pertaining to alcohol use as well as other health behaviors

The Quantum Interest Conjecture

Although quantum field theory allows local negative energy densities and fluxes, it also places severe restrictions upon the magnitude and extent of the negative energy. The restrictions take the form of quantum inequalities. These inequalities imply that a pulse of negative energy must not only be followed by a compensating pulse of positive energy, but that the temporal separation between the pulses is inversely proportional to their amplitude. In an earlier paper we conjectured that there is a further constraint upon a negative and positive energy delta-function pulse pair. This conjecture (the quantum interest conjecture) states that a positive energy pulse must overcompensate the negative energy pulse by an amount which is a monotonically increasing function of the pulse separation. In the present paper we prove the conjecture for massless quantized scalar fields in two and four-dimensional flat spacetime, and show that it is implied by the quantum inequalities.Comment: 17 pages, Latex, 3 figures, uses eps

Gravitational Lensing by Black Holes

We review the theoretical aspects of gravitational lensing by black holes, and discuss the perspectives for realistic observations. We will first treat lensing by spherically symmetric black holes, in which the formation of infinite sequences of higher order images emerges in the clearest way. We will then consider the effects of the spin of the black hole, with the formation of giant higher order caustics and multiple images. Finally, we will consider the perspectives for observations of black hole lensing, from the detection of secondary images of stellar sources and spots on the accretion disk to the interpretation of iron K-lines and direct imaging of the shadow of the black hole.Comment: Invited article for the GRG special issue on lensing (P. Jetzer, Y. Mellier and V. Perlick Eds.). 31 pages, 12 figure

Do master narratives change among High School Students?: a characterization of how national history is represented

Master narratives frame students’ historical knowledge, possibly hindering access to more historical representations. A detailed analysis of students’ historical narratives about the origins of their own nation is presented in terms of four master narrative characteristics related to the historical subject, national identification, the main theme and the nation concept. The narratives of Argentine 8th and 11th graders were analyzed to establish whether a change toward a more complex historical account occurred. The results show that the past is mostly understood in master narrative terms but in the 11th grade narratives demonstrate a more historical understanding. Only identification appears to be fairly constant across years of history learning. The results suggest that in history education first aiming at a constructivist concept of nation and then using the concept to reflect on the national historical subject and events in the narrative might help produce historical understanding of a national past.This article was written with the support of projects EDU-2010-17725 (DGICYT, Spain) and PICT-2008-1217 (ANPCYT, Argentina), coordinated by the first author. We are grateful for that support

A national approach to pediatric sepsis surveillance

Pediatric sepsis is a major public health concern, and robust surveillance tools are needed to characterize its incidence, outcomes, and trends. The increasing use of electronic health records (EHRs) in the United States creates an opportunity to conduct reliable, pragmatic, and generalizable population-level surveillance using routinely collected clinical data rather than administrative claims or resource-intensive chart review. In 2015, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recruited sepsis investigators and representatives of key professional societies to develop an approach to adult sepsis surveillance using clinical data recorded in EHRs. This led to the creation of the adult sepsis event definition, which was used to estimate the national burden of sepsis in adults and has been adapted into a tool kit to facilitate widespread implementation by hospitals. In July 2018, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a new multidisciplinary pediatric working group to tailor an EHR-based national sepsis surveillance approach to infants and children. Here, we describe the challenges specific to pediatric sepsis surveillance, including evolving clinical definitions of sepsis, accommodation of agedependent physiologic differences, identifying appropriate EHR markers of infection and organ dysfunction among infants and children, and the need to account for children with medical complexity and the growing regionalization of pediatric care. We propose a preliminary pediatric sepsis event surveillance definition and outline next steps for refining and validating these criteria so that they may be used to estimate the national burden of pediatric sepsis and support site-specific surveillance to complement ongoing initiatives to improve sepsis prevention, recognition, and treatment

On the Construction of Quantum Field Theories with Factorizing S-Matrices

The subject of this thesis is a novel construction method for interacting relativistic quantum field theories on two-dimensional Minkowski space. The input in this construction is not a classical Lagrangian, but rather a prescribed factorizing S-matrix, i.e. the inverse scattering problem for such quantum field theories is studied. For a large class of factorizing S-matrices, certain associated quantum fields, which are localized in wedge-shaped regions of Minkowski space, are constructed explicitely. With the help of these fields, the local observable content of the corresponding model is defined and analyzed by employing methods from the algebraic framework of quantum field theory. The abstract problem in this analysis amounts to the question under which conditions an algebra of wedge-localized observables can be used to generate a net of local observable algebras with the right physical properties. The answer given here uses the so-called modular nuclearity condition, which is shown to imply the existence of local observables and the Reeh-Schlieder property. In the analysis of the concrete models, this condition is proven for a large family of S-matrices, including the scattering operators of the Sinh-Gordon model and the scaling Ising model as special examples. The so constructed models are then investigated with respect to their scattering properties. They are shown to solve the inverse scattering problem for the considered S-matrices, and a proof of asymptotic completeness is given.Comment: PhD thesis, Goettingen university, 2006 (advisor: D. Buchholz) 153 pages, 10 figure