Opinion: A critical evaluation of the evidence for aerosol invigoration of deep convection

Deep convective updraft invigoration via indirect effects of increased aerosol number concentration on cloud microphysics is frequently cited as a driver of correlations between aerosol and deep convection properties. Here, we critically evaluate the theoretical, modeling, and observational evidence for warm- and cold-phase invigoration pathways. Though warm-phase invigoration is plausible and theoretically supported via lowering of the supersaturation with increased cloud droplet concentration in polluted conditions, the significance of this effect depends on substantial supersaturation changes in real-world convective clouds that have not been observed. Much of the theoretical support for cold-phase invigoration depends on unrealistic assumptions of instantaneous freezing and unloading of condensate in growing, isolated updrafts. When applying more realistic assumptions, impacts on buoyancy from enhanced latent heating via fusion in polluted conditions are largely canceled by greater condensate loading. Many foundational observational studies supporting invigoration have several fundamental methodological flaws that render their findings incorrect or highly questionable. Thus, much of the evidence for invigoration has come from numerical modeling, but different models and setups have produced a vast range of results. Furthermore, modeled aerosol impacts on deep convection are rarely tested for robustness, and microphysical biases relative to observations persist, rendering many results unreliable for application to the real world. Without clear theoretical, modeling, or observational support, and given that enervation rather than invigoration may occur for some deep convective regimes and environments, it is entirely possible that the overall impact of cold-phase invigoration is negligible. Substantial mesoscale variability of dominant thermodynamic controls on convective updraft strength coupled with substantial updraft and aerosol variability in any given event are poorly quantified by observations and present further challenges to isolating aerosol effects. Observational isolation and quantification of convective invigoration by aerosols is also complicated by limitations of available cloud condensation nuclei and updraft speed proxies, aerosol correlations with meteorological conditions, and cloud impacts on aerosols. Furthermore, many cloud processes, such as entrainment and condensate fallout, modulate updraft strength and aerosol–cloud interactions, varying with cloud life cycle and organization, but these processes remain poorly characterized. Considering these challenges, recommendations for future observational and modeling research related to aerosol invigoration of deep convection are provided.</p

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms

Replication in Cells of Hematopoietic Origin Is Necessary for Dengue Virus Dissemination

Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen for which no vaccine or specific therapeutic is available. Although it is well established that dendritic cells and macrophages are primary sites of DENV replication, it remains unclear whether non-hematopoietic cellular compartments serve as virus reservoirs. Here, we exploited hematopoietic-specific microRNA-142 (miR-142) to control virus tropism by inserting tandem target sites into the virus to restrict replication exclusively in this cell population. In vivo use of this virus restricted infection of CD11b+, CD11c+, and CD45+ cells, resulting in a loss of virus spread, regardless of the route of administration. Furthermore, sequencing of the targeted virus population that persisted at low levels, demonstrated total excision of the inserted miR-142 target sites. The complete conversion of the virus population under these selective conditions suggests that these immune cells are the predominant sources of virus amplification. Taken together, this work highlights the importance of hematopoietic cells for DENV replication and showcases an invaluable tool for the study of virus pathogenesis

Regulation of microRNA biogenesis and turnover by animals and their viruses

Item does not contain fulltextMicroRNAs (miRNAs) are a ubiquitous component of gene regulatory networks that modulate the precise amounts of proteins expressed in a cell. Despite their small size, miRNA genes contain various recognition elements that enable specificity in when, where and to what extent they are expressed. The importance of precise control of miRNA expression is underscored by functional studies in model organisms and by the association between miRNA mis-expression and disease. In the last decade, identification of the pathways by which miRNAs are produced, matured and turned-over has revealed many aspects of their biogenesis that are subject to regulation. Studies in viral systems have revealed a range of mechanisms by which viruses target these pathways through viral proteins or non-coding RNAs in order to regulate cellular gene expression. In parallel, a field of study has evolved around the activation and suppression of antiviral RNA interference (RNAi) by viruses. Virus encoded suppressors of RNAi can impact miRNA biogenesis in cases where miRNA and small interfering RNA pathways converge. Here we review the literature on the mechanisms by which miRNA biogenesis and turnover are regulated in animals and the diverse strategies that viruses use to subvert or inhibit these processes

Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Short- duration (1-3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth's climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short- duration and long- duration (\textgreater1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K-1), while in some regions, increases in short- duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large- scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short- duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks

Tracking Aerosol Convective Interactions Experiment (TRACER) Science Plan

Convective clouds play an important role in the Earth's climate system as a driver of large-scale circulations and a primary mechanism for the transport of heat, moisture, aerosols, and momentum throughout the troposphere. Despite their climatic importance, multi-scale models continue to have persistent biases produced by insufficient representation of convective clouds. This is the result of an incomplete understanding of key processes such as convective initiation, updraft and downdraft dynamics, cloud and precipitation microphysics, and aerosol-convection interactions.The Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation-Climate Initiative, an international research group dedicated to advancing understanding of aerosol impacts on clouds relevant to climate, has identified the Houston, Texas region as an optimal location for targeted studies of aerosol-convection interactions within frequently developing isolated deep convection. Houston lies within a humid subtropical climate regime, where onshore flow and sea-breeze convection interact with a range of aerosol conditions associated with Houston's urban and industrial emissions. Pilot studies have suggested that convective clouds in this region are potentially significantly impacted by the varying aerosol conditions

A comparison of TWP-ICE observational data with cloud-resolving model results

International audienceObservations made during the TWP-ICE campaign are used to drive and evaluate thirteen cloud-resolving model simulations with periodic lateral boundary conditions. The simulations employ 2D and 3D dynamics, one- and two-moment microphysics, several variations on large-scale forcing, and the use of observationally derived aerosol properties to prognose droplet numbers. When domain means are averaged over a 6-day active monsoon period, all simulations reproduce observed surface precipitation rate but not its structural distribution. Simulated fractional areas covered by convective and stratiform rain are uncorrelated with one another, and are both variably overpredicted by up to a factor of ∼2. Stratiform area fractions are strongly anticorrelated with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) but are negligibly correlated with ice water path (IWP), indicating that ice spatial distribution controls OLR more than mean IWP. Overpredictions of OLR tend to be accompanied by underpredictions of reflected shortwave radiation (RSR). When there are two simulations differing only in microphysics scheme or large-scale forcing, the one with smaller stratiform area tends to exhibit greater OLR and lesser RSR by similar amounts. After ∼10 days, simulations reach a suppressed monsoon period with a wide range of mean precipitable water vapor, attributable in part to varying overprediction of cloud-modulated radiative flux divergence compared with observationally derived values. Differences across the simulation ensemble arise from multiple sources, including dynamics, microphysics, and radiation treatments. Close agreement of spatial and temporal averages with observations may not be expected, but the wide spreads of predicted stratiform fraction and anticorrelated OLR indicate a need for more rigorous observation-based evaluation of the underlying micro- and macrophysical properties of convective and stratiform structures

The VSV matrix protein inhibits NF-κB and the interferon response independently in mouse L929 cells

The matrix (M) protein of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) plays a key role in immune evasion. While VSV has been thought to suppress the interferon (IFN) response primarily by inhibiting host cell transcription and translation, our recent findings indicate that the M protein also targets NF-κB activation. Therefore, the M protein may utilize two distinct mechanisms to limit expression of antiviral genes, inhibiting both host gene expression and NF-κB activation. Here we characterize a recently reported mutation in the M protein [M(D52G)] of VSV isolate 22-20, which suppressed IFN mRNA and protein production despite activating NF-κB. 22-20 inhibited reporter gene expression from multiple promoters, suggesting that 22-20 suppressed the IFN response via M-mediated inhibition of host cell transcription. We propose that suppression of the IFN response and regulation of NF-κB are independent, genetically separable functions of the VSV M protein