Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web

The large-scale organization of the world economies is exhibiting increasingly levels of local heterogeneity and global interdependency. Understanding the relation between local and global features calls for analytical tools able to uncover the global emerging organization of the international trade network. Here we analyze the world network of bilateral trade imbalances and characterize its overall flux organization, unraveling local and global high-flux pathways that define the backbone of the trade system. We develop a general procedure capable to progressively filter out in a consistent and quantitative way the dominant trade channels. This procedure is completely general and can be applied to any weighted network to detect the underlying structure of transport flows. The trade fluxes properties of the world trade web determines a ranking of trade partnerships that highlights global interdependencies, providing information not accessible by simple local analysis. The present work provides new quantitative tools for a dynamical approach to the propagation of economic crises

Pharmacokinetic modelling of the anti-malarial drug artesunate and its active metabolite dihydroartemisinin

A four compartment mechanistic mathematical model is developed for the pharmacokinetics of the commonly used anti-malarial drug artesunate and its principle metabolite dihydroartemisinin following oral administration of artesunate. The model is structurally unidentifiable unless additional constraints are imposed. Combinations of mechanistically derived constraints are considered to assess their effects on structural identifiability and on model fits. Certain combinations of the constraints give rise to locally or globally identifiable model structures. Initial validation of the model under various combinations of the constraints leading to identifiable model structures was performed against a dataset of artesunate and dihydroartemisinin concentration–time profiles of 19 malaria patients. When all the discussed constraints were imposed on the model, the resulting globally identifiable model structure was found to fit reasonably well to those patients with normal drug absorption profiles. However, there is wide variability in the fitted parameters and further investigation is warranted

The International-Trade Network: Gravity Equations and Topological Properties

This paper begins to explore the determinants of the topological properties of the international - trade network (ITN). We fit bilateral-trade flows using a standard gravity equation to build a "residual" ITN where trade-link weights are depurated from geographical distance, size, border effects, trade agreements, and so on. We then compare the topological properties of the original and residual ITNs. We find that the residual ITN displays, unlike the original one, marked signatures of a complex system, and is characterized by a very different topological architecture. Whereas the original ITN is geographically clustered and organized around a few large-sized hubs, the residual ITN displays many small-sized but trade-oriented countries that, independently of their geographical position, either play the role of local hubs or attract large and rich countries in relatively complex trade-interaction patterns

Modelling production-consumption flows of goods in Europe: the trade model within Transtools3

The paper presents a new model for trade flows in Europe that is integrated with a logistics model for transport chain choice through Logsum variables. Logsums measures accessibility across an entire multi-modal logistical chain, and are calculated from a logistics model that has been estimated on disaggregated micro data and then used as an input variable in the trade model. Using Logsums in a trade model is new in applied large-scale freight models, where previous models have simply relied on the distance (e.g. crow-fly) between zones. This linkage of accessibility to the trade model makes it possible to evaluate how changes in policies on transport costs and changes in multi-modal networks will influence trade patterns. As an example the paper presents outcomes for a European-wide truck tolling scenario, which showcases to which extent trade is influenced by such a policy. The paper discusses how such a complex model can be estimated and considers the choice of mathematical formulation and the link between the trade model and logistics model. In the outcomes for the tolling scenario we decompose the total effects into effects from the trade model and effects from the logistics model

Measurement of gauge blocks by interferometry

The key comparison EURAMET.L-K1.2011 on gauge blocks was carried out in the framework of a EURAMET project starting in 2012 and ending in 2015. It involved the participation of 24 National Metrology Institutes from Europe and Egypt, respectively. 38 gauge blocks of steel and ceramic with nominal central lengths between 0.5 mm and 500 mm were circulated. The comparison was conducted in two loops with two sets of artifacts. A statistical technique for linking the reference values was applied. As a consequence the reference value of one loop is influenced by the measurements of the other loop although they did not even see the artifacts of the others. This influence comes solely from three "linking laboratories" which measure both sets of artifacts. In total there were 44 results were not fully consistent with the reference values. This represents 10% of the full set of 420 results which is a considerable high number. At least 12 of them are clearly outliers where the participants have been informed by the pilot as soon as possible. The comparison results help to support the calibration and measurement capabilities (CMCs) of the laboratories involved in the CIPM MRA

Measuring the Effect of Revealed Cultural Preferences on Tourism Exports

The aim of this article is to propose a novel method for measuring the effect of cultural preference on bilateral tourism receipts. The method applied is inspired from Disdier et al. (2010). Using the UNESCO classification and data on bilateral trade in cultural product, a proxy for cultural preferences is constructed. The variable is used in a gravity model for tourism export, which is estimated using a two-step procedure to avoid issues related to endogeneity. The data set used is a panel of 12 OECD countries for a period of 11 years. The variable for cultural preferences eliminates the problems with traditional methods, which by using dummy variables to account for cultural preferences, assume that the latter are time-invariant and symmetrical. The cultural variable constructed is found to be significant in explaining bilateral tourism exports with an elasticity of 0.39. © The Author(s) 2018