XY model in small-world networks

The phase transition in the XY model on one-dimensional small-world networks is investigated by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. It is found that long-range order is present at finite temperatures, even for very small values of the rewiring probability, suggesting a finite-temperature transition for any nonzero rewiring probability. Nature of the phase transition is discussed in comparison with the globally-coupled XY model.Comment: 5 pages, accepted in PR

The effect of changes to GOLD severity stage on long term morbidity and mortality in COPD

Abstract Background The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) severity stage classifies Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) into groups based on symptoms, exacerbations and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). This allows patients to change to less severe COPD stages, a novel aspect of assessment not previously evaluated. We aimed to investigate the association between temporal changes in GOLD severity stage and outcomes in COPD patients. Methods This was a record-linkage study using patients registered with a Scottish regional COPD network 2000–2015. Annual spirometry & symptoms were recorded and linked to healthcare records to identify exacerbations, hospitalisations and mortality. Spirometry, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnoea scale and acute exacerbations over the previous year were used to assign GOLD severity at each visit. A time-dependent Cox model was used to model time to death. Secondary outcomes were respiratory specific mortality and hospitalisations. Effect sizes are expressed as Hazard Ratios HR (95%CI). Results Four thousand, eight hundred and eighty-five patients (mean age 67.3 years; 51.3% female) with 21,348 visits were included. During a median 6.6 years follow-up there were 1530 deaths. For the secondary outcomes there were 712 respiratory deaths and 1629 first hospitalisations. Across 16,463 visit-pairs, improvement in COPD severity was seen in 2308 (14%), no change in 11,010 (66.9%) and worsening in 3145 (19.1). Compared to patients staying in GOLD stage A, those worsening had a stepwise increased mortality and hospitalisations. Conclusions Improving COPD severity classification was associated with reduced mortality and worsening COPD severity was associated with increased mortality and hospitalisations. Change in GOLD group has potential as monitoring tool and outcome measure in clinical trials

Levels, timing, and etiology of stillbirths in Sylhet district of Bangladesh

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lack of data is a critical barrier to addressing the problem of stillbirth in countries with the highest stillbirth burden. Our study objective was to estimate the levels, types, and causes of stillbirth in rural Sylhet district of Bangladesh.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A complete pregnancy history was taken from all women (n = 39 998) who had pregnancy outcomes during 2003-2005 in the study area. Verbal autopsy data were obtained for all identified stillbirths during the period. We used pre-defined case definitions and computer programs to assign causes of stillbirth for selected causes containing specific signs and symptoms. Both non-hierarchical and hierarchical approaches were used to assign causes of stillbirths.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1748 stillbirths were recorded during 2003-2005 from 48,192 births (stillbirth rate: 36.3 per 1000 total births). About 60% and 40% of stillbirths were categorized as antepartum and intrapartum, respectively. Maternal conditions, including infections, hypertensive disorders, and anemia, contributed to about 29% of total antepartum stillbirths. About 50% of intrapartum stillbirths were attributed to obstetric complications. Maternal infections and hypertensive disorders contributed to another 11% of stillbirths. A cause could not be assigned in nearly half (49%) of stillbirths.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The stillbirth rate is high in rural Bangladesh. Based on algorithmic approaches using verbal autopsy data, a substantial portion of stillbirths is attributable to maternal conditions and obstetric complications. Programs need to deliver community-level interventions to prevent and manage maternal complications, and to develop strategies to improve access to emergency obstetric care. Improvements in care to avert stillbirth can be accomplished in the context of existing maternal and child health programs. Methodological improvements in the measurement of stillbirths, especially causes of stillbirths, are also needed to better define the burden of stillbirths in low-resource settings.</p

Self-reported tobacco smoking practices among medical students and their perceptions towards training about tobacco smoking in medical curricula: A cross-sectional, questionnaire survey in Malaysia, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tobacco smoking issues in developing countries are usually taught non-systematically as and when the topic arose. The World Health Organisation and Global Health Professional Student Survey (GHPSS) have suggested introducing a separate integrated tobacco module into medical school curricula. Our aim was to assess medical students' tobacco smoking habits, their practices towards patients' smoking habits and attitude towards teaching about smoking in medical schools.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was carried out among final year undergraduate medical students in Malaysia, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. An anonymous, self-administered questionnaire included items on demographic information, students' current practices about patients' tobacco smoking habits, their perception towards tobacco education in medical schools on a five point Likert scale. Questions about tobacco smoking habits were adapted from GHPSS questionnaire. An <it>'ever smoker' </it>was defined as one who had smoked during lifetime, even if had tried a few puffs once or twice. 'Current smoker' was defined as those who had smoked tobacco product on one or more days in the preceding month of the survey. Descriptive statistics were calculated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall response rate was 81.6% (922/1130). Median age was 22 years while 50.7% were males and 48.2% were females. The overall prevalence of 'ever smokers' and 'current smokers' was 31.7% and 13.1% respectively. A majority (> 80%) of students asked the patients about their smoking habits during clinical postings/clerkships. Only a third of them did counselling, and assessed the patients' willingness to quit. Majority of the students agreed about doctors' role in tobacco control as being role models, competence in smoking cessation methods, counseling, and the need for training about tobacco cessation in medical schools. About 50% agreed that current curriculum teaches about tobacco smoking but not systematically and should be included as a separate module. Majority of the students indicated that topics about health effects, nicotine addiction and its treatment, counselling, prevention of relapse were important or very important in training about tobacco smoking.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Medical educators should consider revising medical curricula to improve training about tobacco smoking cessation in medical schools. Our results should be supported by surveys from other medical schools in developing countries of Asia.</p

Epidemiology of tobacco use and dependence in adults in a poor peri-urban community in Lima, Peru

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tobacco smoking is an important public health concern worldwide leading to both chronic disease and early death. In Latin America, smoking prevalence is estimated at approximately 30% and prior studies suggest that the prevalence in Peru is 22% to 38%. We sought to determine the prevalence of daily smoking in a poor peri-urban community in Lima, Peru.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a cross-sectional survey in a random sample of adults ≥40 years of age living in Pampas de San Juan de Miraflores, Lima, Peru. We asked participants to respond to a survey that included questions on sociodemographics, tobacco use and dependence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We enrolled 316 participants. Average monthly household income was ≤ 400 USD and nearly all homes had running water, sewage, and electricity. Most individuals had not completed high school. Smoking prevalence was 16% overall, yet daily smoking prevalence was 1.9%. Former daily smokers comprised 3.8% of current nonsmokers and 9.1% current occasional smokers. Average scores for the Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence for daily smokers and occasional smokers were 1.5 and 0, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Daily use of tobacco is uncommon among adults in peri-urban communities of Lima, Peru, unlike their counterparts in Lima and other Latin American capital cities. Tobacco dependence is also low. Hence, efforts aimed at primary prevention are of utmost importance in these communities. This study provides an accurate baseline using an internationally recognized assessment tool (Global Adult Tobacco Survey), allowing for accurate assessment of tobacco control interventions over time.</p

Nutrition, mental health and violence: from pregnancy to postpartum Cohort of women attending primary care units in Southern Brazil - ECCAGE study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Woman's nutritional status, before and during pregnancy, is a strong determinant of health outcomes in the mother and newborn. Gestational weight gain and postpartum weight retention increases risk of overweight or obesity in the future and they depend on the pregestational nutritional status and on food consumption and eating behavior during pregnancy. Eating behavior during pregnancy may be the cause or consequence of mood changes during pregnancy, especially depression, which increases likelihood of postpartum depression. In Brazil, a study carried out in the immediate postpartum period found that one in three women experienced some type of violence during pregnancy. Violence and depression are strongly associated and both exposures during pregnancy are associated with increased maternal stress and subsequent harm to the infant. The main objectives of this study are: to identify food intake and eating behaviors patterns; to estimate the prevalence of common mental disorders and the experience of violence during and after pregnancy; and to estimate the association between these exposures and infant's health and development.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This is a cohort study of 780 pregnant women receiving care in 18 primary care units in two cities in Southern Brazil. Pregnant women were first evaluated between the 16^thand 36^thweek of pregnancy at a prenatal visit. Follow-up included immediate postpartum assessment and around the fifth month postpartum. Information was obtained on sociodemographic characteristics, living circumstances, food intake, eating behaviors, mental health and exposure to violence, and on infant's development and anthropometrics measurements.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This project will bring relevant information for a better understanding of the relationship between exposures during pregnancy and how they might affect child development, which can be useful for a better planning of health actions aiming to enhance available resources in primary health care.</p

Systematic review with meta-analysis of the epidemiological evidence relating smoking to COPD, chronic bronchitis and emphysema

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Smoking is a known cause of the outcomes COPD, chronic bronchitis (CB) and emphysema, but no previous systematic review exists. We summarize evidence for various smoking indices.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Based on MEDLINE searches and other sources we obtained papers published to 2006 describing epidemiological studies relating incidence or prevalence of these outcomes to smoking. Studies in children or adolescents, or in populations at high respiratory disease risk or with co-existing diseases were excluded. Study-specific data were extracted on design, exposures and outcomes considered, and confounder adjustment. For each outcome RRs/ORs and 95% CIs were extracted for ever, current and ex smoking and various dose response indices, and meta-analyses and meta-regressions conducted to determine how relationships were modified by various study and RR characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 218 studies identified, 133 provide data for COPD, 101 for CB and 28 for emphysema. RR estimates are markedly heterogeneous. Based on random-effects meta-analyses of most-adjusted RR/ORs, estimates are elevated for ever smoking (COPD 2.89, CI 2.63-3.17, n = 129 RRs; CB 2.69, 2.50-2.90, n = 114; emphysema 4.51, 3.38-6.02, n = 28), current smoking (COPD 3.51, 3.08-3.99; CB 3.41, 3.13-3.72; emphysema 4.87, 2.83-8.41) and ex smoking (COPD 2.35, 2.11-2.63; CB 1.63, 1.50-1.78; emphysema 3.52, 2.51-4.94). For COPD, RRs are higher for males, for studies conducted in North America, for cigarette smoking rather than any product smoking, and where the unexposed base is never smoking any product, and are markedly lower when asthma is included in the COPD definition. Variations by sex, continent, smoking product and unexposed group are in the same direction for CB, but less clearly demonstrated. For all outcomes RRs are higher when based on mortality, and for COPD are markedly lower when based on lung function. For all outcomes, risk increases with amount smoked and pack-years. Limited data show risk decreases with increasing starting age for COPD and CB and with increasing quitting duration for COPD. No clear relationship is seen with duration of smoking.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results confirm and quantify the causal relationships with smoking.</p

Individual recovery expectations and prognosis of outcomes in non‐specific low back pain:prognostic factor review

BACKGROUND: Low back pain is costly and disabling. Prognostic factor evidence can help healthcare providers and patients understand likely prognosis, inform the development of prediction models to identify subgroups, and may inform new treatment strategies. Recent studies have suggested that people who have poor expectations for recovery experience more back pain disability, but study results have differed. OBJECTIVES: To synthesise evidence on the association between recovery expectations and disability outcomes in adults with low back pain, and explore sources of heterogeneity. SEARCH METHODS: The search strategy included broad and focused electronic searches of MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and PsycINFO to 12 March 2019, reference list searches of relevant reviews and included studies, and citation searches of relevant expectation measurement tools. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included low back pain prognosis studies from any setting assessing general, self-efficacy, and treatment expectations (measured dichotomously and continuously on a 0 - 10 scale), and their association with work participation, clinically important recovery, functional limitations, or pain intensity outcomes at short (3 months), medium (6 months), long (12 months), and very long (> 16 months) follow-up. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted study characteristics and all reported estimates of unadjusted and adjusted associations between expectations and related outcomes. Two review authors independently assessed risks of bias using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. We conducted narrative syntheses and meta-analyses when appropriate unadjusted or adjusted estimates were available. Two review authors independently graded and reported the overall quality of evidence. MAIN RESULTS: We screened 4635 unique citations to include 60 studies (30,530 participants). Thirty-five studies were conducted in Europe, 21 in North America, and four in Australia. Study populations were mostly chronic (37%), from healthcare (62%) or occupational settings (26%). General expectation was the most common type of recovery expectation measured (70%); 16 studies measured more than one type of expectation. Usable data for syntheses were available for 52 studies (87% of studies; 28,885 participants). We found moderate-quality evidence that positive recovery expectations are strongly associated with better work participation (narrative synthesis: 21 studies; meta-analysis: 12 studies, 4777 participants: odds ratio (OR) 2.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64 to 3.62), and low-quality evidence for clinically important recovery outcomes (narrative synthesis: 12 studies; meta-analysis: 5 studies, 1820 participants: OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.49 to 2.41), both at follow-up times closest to 12 months, using adjusted data. The association of recovery expectations with other outcomes of interest, including functional limitations (narrative synthesis: 10 studies; meta-analysis: 3 studies, 1435 participants: OR 1.40, 95% CI 0.85 to 2.31) and pain intensity (narrative synthesis: 9 studies; meta-analysis: 3 studies, 1555 participants: OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.23) outcomes at follow-up times closest to 12 months using adjusted data, is less certain, achieving very low- and low-quality evidence, respectively. No studies reported statistically significant or clinically important negative associations between recovery expectations and any low back pain outcome. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found that individual recovery expectations are probably strongly associated with future work participation (moderate-quality evidence) and may be associated with clinically important recovery outcomes (low-quality evidence). The association of recovery expectations with other outcomes of interest is less certain. Our findings suggest that recovery expectations should be considered in future studies, to improve prognosis and management of low back pain