Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate

Observations and models have shown that continuously degassing volcanoes have a potentially large effect on the natural background aerosol loading and the radiative state of the atmosphere. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to quantify the impact of these volcanic emissions on the cloud albedo radiative forcing under pre-industrial (PI) and present-day (PD) conditions. We find that volcanic degassing increases global annual mean cloud droplet number concentrations by 40% under PI conditions, but by only 10% under PD conditions. Consequently, volcanic degassing causes a global annual mean cloud albedo effect of −1.06 W m−2 in the PI era but only −0.56 W m−2 in the PD era. This non-equal effect is explained partly by the lower background aerosol concentrations in the PI era, but also because more aerosol particles are produced per unit of volcanic sulphur emission in the PI atmosphere. The higher sensitivity of the PI atmosphere to volcanic emissions has an important consequence for the anthropogenic cloud radiative forcing because the large uncertainty in volcanic emissions translates into an uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state. Assuming a −50/+100% uncertainty range in the volcanic sulphur flux, we estimate the annual mean anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing to lie between −1.16 W m−2 and −0.86 W m−2. Therefore, the volcanically induced uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state substantially adds to the already large uncertainty in the magnitude of the indirect radiative forcing of climate

Influence of enhanced Asian NOx emissions on ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in chemistry–climate model simulations

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone is the most pronounced circulation pattern in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during northern hemispheric summer. ASM convection plays an important role in efficient vertical transport from the surface to the upper-level anticyclone. In this paper we investigate the potential impact of enhanced anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions on the distribution of ozone in the UTLS using the fully coupled aerosol–chemistry–climate model, ECHAM5-HAMMOZ. Ozone in the UTLS is influenced both by the convective uplift of ozone precursors and by the uplift of enhanced-NOx-induced tropospheric ozone anomalies. We performed anthropogenic NOx emission sensitivity experiments over India and China. In these simulations, covering the years 2000–2010, anthropogenic NOx emissions have been increased by 38 % over India and by 73 % over China with respect to the emission base year 2000. These emission increases are comparable to the observed linear trends of 3.8 % per year over India and 7.3 % per year over China during the period 2000 to 2010. Enhanced NOx emissions over India by 38 % and China by 73 % increase the ozone radiative forcing in the ASM anticyclone (15–40° N, 60–120° E) by 16.3 and 78.5 mW m−2 respectively. These elevated NOx emissions produce significant warming over the Tibetan Plateau and increase precipitation over India due to a strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation. However, increase in NOx emissions over India by 73 % (similar to the observed increase over China) results in large ozone production over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Tibetan Plateau. The higher ozone concentrations, in turn, induce a reversed monsoon Hadley circulation and negative precipitation anomalies over India. The associated subsidence suppresses vertical transport of NOx and ozone into the ASM anticyclone

Sensitivity of mid-19th century tropospheric ozone to atmospheric chemistry-vegetation interactions

We use an Earth-System model (HadGEM2-ES) to investigate the sensitivity of mid-19th century tropospheric ozone to vegetation distribution and atmospheric chemistry-vegetation interaction processes. We conduct model experiments to isolate the response of mid-19th century tropospheric ozone to vegetation cover changes between the 1860s and present-day and to CO2 induced changes in isoprene emissions and dry deposition over the same period. Changes in vegetation distribution and CO2 suppression of isoprene emissions between mid-19th century and present-day, lead to decreases in global isoprene emissions of 19% and 21% respectively. This results in increases in surface ozone over the continents of up to 2 ppbv and of 2-6 ppbv in the tropical upper troposphere. The effects of CO2 increases on suppression of isoprene emissions and suppression of dry deposition to vegetation are small compared with the effects of vegetation cover change. Assuming present-day climate in addition to present-day vegetation cover and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, leads to increases in surface ozone concentrations of up to 5 ppbv over the entire northern hemisphere (NH), and of up to 8 ppbv in the NH free troposphere, compared with a mid-19th century simulation. Ozone changes are dominated by: 1) the role of isoprene as an ozone sink in the low NOx mid-19th century at30 mosphere, and 2) the redistribution of NOx to remote regions and the free troposphere via PAN (peroxyacetyl nitrate) formed from isoprene oxidation. We estimate a tropospheric ozone radiative forcing of 0.264W m−2 and a sensitivity in ozone radiative forcing to mid-19th century to present-day vegetation cover change of -0.012W m−2

Aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing response to anthropogenically driven historical changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have changed in the past millennium due to changes in land use, temperature, and CO2 concentrations. Recent reconstructions of BVOC emissions have predicted that global isoprene emissions have decreased, while monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions have increased; however, all three show regional variability due to competition between the various influencing factors. In this work, we use two modeled estimates of BVOC emissions from the years 1000 to 2000 to test the effect of anthropogenic changes to BVOC emissions on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, global aerosol size distributions, and radiative effects using the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS (Goddard Earth Observing System; TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional) global aerosol microphysics model. With anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO2, NOx, primary aerosols) turned off and BVOC emissions changed from year 1000 to year 2000 values, decreases in the number concentration of particles of size Dp > 80 nm (N80) of > 25% in year 2000 relative to year 1000 were predicted in regions with extensive land-use changes since year 1000 which led to regional increases in the combined aerosol radiative effect (direct and indirect) of > 0.5 W m−2 in these regions. We test the sensitivity of our results to BVOC emissions inventory, SOA yields, and the presence of anthropogenic emissions; however, the qualitative response of the model to historic BVOC changes remains the same in all cases. Accounting for these uncertainties, we estimate millennial changes in BVOC emissions cause a global mean direct effect of between +0.022 and +0.163 W m−2 and the global mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect of between −0.008 and −0.056 W m−2. This change in aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, could be a largely overlooked and important anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional climates

Health research improves healthcare: now we have the evidence and the chance to help the WHO spread such benefits globally

There has been a dramatic increase in the body of evidence demonstrating the benefits that come from health research. In 2014, the funding bodies for higher education in the UK conducted an assessment of research using an approach termed the Research Excellence Framework (REF). As one element of the REF, universities and medical schools in the UK submitted 1,621 case studies claiming to show the impact of their health and other life sciences research conducted over the last 20 years. The recently published results show many case studies were judged positively as providing examples of the wide range and extensive nature of the benefits from such research, including the development of new treatments and screening programmes that resulted in considerable reductions in mortality and morbidity. Analysis of specific case studies yet again illustrates the international dimension of progress in health research; however, as has also long been argued, not all populations fully share the benefits. In recognition of this, in May 2013 the World Health Assembly requested the World Health Organization (WHO) to establish a Global Observatory on Health Research and Development (R&D) as part of a strategic work-plan to promote innovation, build capacity, improve access, and mobilise resources to address diseases that disproportionately affect the world’s poorest countries. As editors of Health Research Policy and Systems (HARPS), we are delighted that our journal has been invited to help inform the establishment of the WHO Global Observatory through a Call for Papers covering a range of topics relevant to the Observatory, including topics on which HARPS has published articles over the last few months, such as approaches to assessing research results, measuring expenditure data with a focus on R&D, and landscape analyses of platforms for implementing R&D. Topics related to research capacity building may also be considered. The task of establishing a Global Observatory on Health R&D to achieve the specified objectives will not be easy; nevertheless, this Call for Papers is well timed – it comes just at the point where the evidence of the benefits from health research has been considerably strengthened

Large methane releases lead to strong aerosol forcing and reduced cloudiness

The release of vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere as a result of clathrate destabilization is a potential mechanism for rapid amplification of global warming. Previous studies have calculated the enhanced warming based mainly on the radiative effect of the methane itself, with smaller contributions from the associated carbon dioxide or ozone increases. Here, we study the effect of strongly elevated methane (CH4) levels on oxidant and aerosol particle concentrations using a combination of chemistry-transport and general circulation models. A 10-fold increase in methane concentrations is predicted to significantly decrease hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations, while moderately increasing ozone (O3). These changes lead to a 70 % increase in the atmospheric lifetime of methane, and an 18 % decrease in global mean cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC). The CDNC change causes a radiative forcing that is comparable in magnitude to the longwave radiative forcing ("enhanced greenhouse effect") of the added methane. Together, the indirect CH4-O3 and CH4-OH-aerosol forcings could more than double the warming effect of large methane increases. Our findings may help explain the anomalously large temperature changes associated with historic methane releases

Satellite constraint on the tropospheric ozone radiative effect

Tropospheric ozone directly affects the radiative balance of the Earth through interaction with shortwave and longwave radiation. Here we use measurements of tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer satellite instrument, together with chemical transport and radiative transfer models, to produce a first estimate of the stratospherically adjusted annual radiative effect (RE) of tropospheric ozone. We show that differences between modeled and observed ozone concentrations have little impact on the RE, indicating that our present-day tropospheric ozone RE estimate of 1.17 ± 0.03 W m−2 is robust. The RE normalized by column ozone decreased between the preindustrial and the present-day. Using a simulation with historical biomass burning and no anthropogenic emissions, we calculate a radiative forcing of 0.32 W m−2 for tropospheric ozone, within the current best estimate range. We propose a radiative kernel approach as an efficient and accurate tool for calculating ozone REs in simulations with similar ozone abundances