A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK

A new modelling strategy is introduced which provides a practical approach to incorporating long- run structural relationships, suggested by economic theory, in an otherwise unrestricted VAR model. The strategy is applied in the construction of a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK, estimated over the period 1965q1-1995q4 in eight core variables: domestic and foreign outputs, domestic and foreign prices (both measured relative to oil prices), the nominal effective exchange rate, nominal domestic and foreign interest rates and real money balances. The aim is to develop a core model with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation. Tests of restrictions on the long-run relations of the model are presented and the dynamic properties of the model are discussed.Long-Run Structural VAR, A Core UK Model, Macroeconomic Modelling, Persistence Profiles

Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomics Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround marco-economic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macro-econometric model, are presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that recession will be avoided, both as separate single events and jointly. The probability forecasts are also used to provide insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons.Probability Forecasting, Long Run Structural VARs, Macroeconometric Modelling, Forecast Evaluation, Probability Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth

Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables to their foreign counterparts and then consistently combined to form a Global VAR (GVAR). It is shown that VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where over-identifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. Similarly, short-run over-identifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where foreign variables can be interpreted as proxies for global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated

Dangerous liaisons: youth sport, citizenship and intergenerational mistrust

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics on 24/3/2014, available online: DOI 10.1080/19406940.2014.896390This paper reflects on and offers a critical analysis of the relationship between youth sport and citizenship development, in practice and in the UK policy context of sports coaching and physical education. While deploying data and insights from a recently completed research project in England, which identified substantial tensions in intergenerational relationships in sport and coaching, the argument and analysis also invokes wider international concerns and more generally applicable implications for policy and practice. Drawing heuristically upon the philosophy of Dewey (2007 [1916]), it is recognised that the concept of citizenship as a form of social practice should seek to encourage the development of complementary traits and dispositions in young people. To develop socially and educationally thus entails engagement in meaningful social and cultural activity, of which one potentially significant component is participation in youth sport, both within and outside formal education. However, it is argued that any confident assumption that sporting and coaching contexts will necessarily foster positive traits and dispositions in young people should be considered dubious and misplaced. Deploying a Lacanian (1981) perspective to interpret our data, we contend that ‘liaisons’ and interactions between coaches and young people are often treated suspiciously, and regarded as potentially ‘dangerous’

A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling

In this paper we discuss the 'structural cointegrating VAR' approach to macroeconometric modelling and compare it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The structural cointegrating VAR approach has the attractive features that the estimated long-run relationships embedded in the model are theory consistent, and have a clear economic interpretation, and yet the short-run dynamics are flexibly estimated within a VAR framework. The approach is illustrated using a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK. The uses of the model in impulse response analysis and probability forecasting is also discussed.Structural Cointegrating VAR, Macroeconomic Modelling, Generalised Impulse Responses, Persistence Profiles, Probability Forecasts.

How should we turn data into decisions in AgriFood?

The AgriFood supply chain is under significant pressures related to food security, climate change, and consumer demands for affordable and higher quality food. Various technologies are already deployed producing a large amount of data, which can be utilised to guide decision-making to improve productivity, reduce wastage, and increase traceability across the AgriFood supply chain. Several examples of the use of data are given, including improving efficiency in livestock production, supporting automation and use of robotics in crop production, increasing food safety and evidencing its provenance. The opportunities and ways forward were discussed at a workshop in November 2017, run by the Society of Chemical Industry and the Knowledge Transfer Network in the UK. This paper presents a summary of the key messages from the presentations and focus-group discussions during this event, as interpreted by the authors. A number of challenges in digitalisation of the AgriFood supply chain are discussed, such as low inter-operability of different data sets, silo mentality, low willingness to share data and a significant skills gap. Various approaches are presented that could help to unlock the benefits of using data, from practical support to producers and addressing skills gaps, to industrial leadership and the role of government departments and regulatory bodies in leading by example. Looking forward, data are already revolutionising the AgriFood supply chain, however, the benefits will remain piecemeal until the leaders of today are able to bring together the disparate groups into a cohesive whole

Effects of Exercise Training on Neuromuscular Junction Morphology and Pre- to Post-Synaptic Coupling in Young and Aged Rats

The objective of this study was to determine whether pre- to post-synaptic coupling of the neuromuscular junction (NMJ) could be maintained in the face of significant morphological remodeling brought about by exercise training, and whether aging altered this capacity. Eighteen young adult (8 mo) and eighteen aged (24 mo) Fischer 344 rats were randomly assigned to either endurance trained (treadmill running) or untrained control conditions resulting in four groups (N = 9 / group). After the 10-week intervention rats were euthanized and hindlimb muscles were surgically removed, quickly frozen at approximate resting length and stored at - 85 degrees C. The plantaris and EDL muscles were selected for study as they have different functions (ankle extensor and ankle flexor, respectively) but both are similarly and overwhelmingly comprised of fast-twitch myofibers. NMJs were stained with immunofluorescent procedures and images were collected with confocal microscopy. Each variable of interest was analyzed with a 2-way ANOVA with main effects of age and endurance training; in all cases significance was set at P \u3c = 0.05. Results showed that no main effects of aging were detected in NMJs of either the plantaris or the EDL. Similarly, endurance training failed to alter any synaptic parameters of EDL muscles. The same exercise stimulus in the plantaris however, resulted in significant pre- and post-synaptic remodeling, but without altering pre- to post-synaptic coupling of the NMJs. Myofiber profiles of the same plantaris and EDL muscles were also analyzed. Unlike NMJs, myofibers displayed significant age-related atrophy in both the plantaris and EDL muscles. Overall, these results confirm that despite significant training-induced reconfiguration of NMJs, pre- to post-synaptic coupling remains intact underscoring the importance of maintaining proper apposition of neurotransmitter release and binding sites so that effective nerve to muscle communication is assured. (C) 2015 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

The Generic Short Patient Experiences Questionnaire (GS-PEQ): identification of core items from a survey in Norway

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Questionnaires are commonly used to collect patient, or user, experiences with health care encounters; however, their adaption to specific target groups limits comparison between groups. We present the construction of a generic questionnaire (maximum of ten questions) for user evaluation across a range of health care services.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Based on previous testing of six group-specific questionnaires, we first constructed a generic questionnaire with 23 items related to user experiences. All questions included a "not applicable" response option, as well as a follow-up question about the item's importance. Nine user groups from one health trust were surveyed. Seven groups received questionnaires by mail and two by personal distribution. Selection of core questions was based on three criteria: applicability (proportion "not applicable"), importance (mean scores on follow-up questions), and comprehensiveness (content coverage, maximum two items per dimension).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>1324 questionnaires were returned providing subsample sizes ranging from 52 to 323. Ten questions were excluded because the proportion of "not applicable" responses exceeded 20% in at least one user group. The number of remaining items was reduced to ten by applying the two other criteria. The final short questionnaire included items on outcome (2), clinician services (2), user involvement (2), incorrect treatment (1), information (1), organisation (1), and accessibility (1).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The Generic Short Patient Experiences Questionnaire (GS-PEQ) is a short, generic set of questions on user experiences with specialist health care that covers important topics for a range of groups. It can be used alone or with other instruments in quality assessment or in research. The psychometric properties and the relevance of the GS-PEQ in other health care settings and countries need further evaluation.</p

A trait‐based approach to plant species selection to increase functionality of farmland vegetative strips

Farmland vegetative strips are a proven source of support for ecosystem services and are globally used to mitigate effects of agricultural intensification. However, increasing pressures on agricultural land require increases in their functionality, such as supporting multiple ecosystem services concurrently. The plant species sown in a vegetative strip seed mix determine the establishment, plant community, and ecosystem services that are supported. Currently, there is no clearly defined or structured method to select plant species for multifunctional vegetative strips. Plant traits determine how plants support ecosystem services. Also, the establishment and persistence of plant communities is influenced by key internal and external factors. We propose a novel, evidence‐informed method of multifunctional vegetative strip design based on these essential traits and factors. This study had three distinct stages. The first identified plant traits that support water quality protection, pollinators and/or crop pest natural enemies, using existing research evidence. We then identified key factors affecting plant community establishment and persistence. Finally, we applied these standardized methods to design a multifunctional vegetative strip for a specific case study (UK lowland farmland). Key plant traits identified, included floral display size, flower color, nectar content, leaf surface area, leaf trichome density, percentage fine roots, root length, rooting depth, and root density. Key internal and external establishment factors included life history, native status, distribution, established competitive strategy, associated floristic diversity, flowering time and duration, and preferred soil type and pH. In the United Kingdom case study, we used five different plant traits and all of the identified factors to design a seed mix for a multifunctional vegetative strip. We present a transferable method of vegetative strip design that can be adapted for other ecosystem services and climates. It provides landowners and advisors with an evidence‐informed approach to increase field margin functionality while supporting farmland biodiversity