282 research outputs found

    How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework

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    The demand for energy in buildings varies strongly across countries and climatic zones. These differences result from manifold factors, whose future evolution is uncertain. In order to assess buildings' energy demand across the 21st century, we develop an energy demand model—EDGE— and apply it in an analytical scenario framework—the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) — to take socio-economic uncertainty into consideration. EDGE projects energy demand for five energy services, four fuel categories, and eleven regions covering the world. The analysis shows that, without further climate policies, global final energy demand from buildings could increase from 116 EJ/yr in 2010 to a range of 120–378 EJ/yr in 2100. Our results show a paradigm shift in buildings' energy demand: appliances, lighting and space cooling dominate demand, while the weight of space heating and cooking declines. The importance of developing countries increases and electricity becomes the main energy carrier. Our results are of high relevance for climate mitigation studies as they create detailed baselines that define the mitigation challenge: the stress on the energy supply system stemming from buildings will grow, though mainly in the form of electricity for which a number of options to decrease GHG emissions exist

    A family case of fertile human 45,X,psu dic(15;Y) males

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    We report on a familial case including four male probands from three generations with a 45,X,psu dic(15;Y)(p11.2;q12) karyotype. 45,X is usually associated with a female phenotype and only rarely with maleness, due to translocation of small Y chromosomal fragments to autosomes. These male patients are commonly infertile because of missing azoospermia factor regions from the Y long arm. In our familial case we found a pseudodicentric translocation chromosome, that contains almost the entire chromosomes 15 and Y. The translocation took place in an unknown male ancestor of our probands and has no apparent effect on fertility and phenotype of the carrier. FISH analysis demonstrated the deletion of the pseudoautosomal region 2 (PAR2) from the Y chromosome and the loss of the nucleolus organizing region (NOR) from chromosome 15. The formation of the psu dic(15;Y) chromosome is a reciprocal event to the formation of the satellited Y chromosome (Yqs). Statistically, the formation of 45,X,psu dic(15;Y) (p11.2;q12) is as likely as the formation of Yqs. Nevertheless, it has not been described yet. This can be explained by the dicentricity of this translocation chromosome that usually leads to mitotic instability and meiotic imbalances. A second event, a stable inactivation of one of the two centromeres is obligatory to enable the transmission of the translocation chromosome and thus a stably reduced chromosome number from father to every son in this family

    Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts

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    Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 ∘C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 ∘C limit only

    Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment

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    The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effectiveness of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in meeting high probability 1.5 and 2 °C stabilization goals. We estimate that the implementation of conditional INDCs in 2030 leaves an emissions gap from least cost 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways for year 2030 equal to 15.6 (9.0–20.3) and 24.6 (18.5–29.0) GtCO2eq respectively. The immediate transition to a more efficient and low-carbon energy system is key to achieving the Paris goals. The decarbonization of the power supply sector delivers half of total CO2 emission reductions in all scenarios, primarily through high penetration of renewables and energy efficiency improvements. In combination with an increased electrification of final energy demand, low-carbon power supply is the main short-term abatement option. We find that the global macroeconomic cost of mitigation efforts does not reduce the 2020–2030 annual GDP growth rates in any model more than 0.1 percentage points in the INDC or 0.3 and 0.5 in the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios respectively even without accounting for potential co-benefits and avoided climate damages. Accordingly, the median GDP reductions across all models in 2030 are 0.4%, 1.2% and 3.3% of reference GDP for each respective scenario. Costs go up with increasing mitigation efforts but a fragmented action, as implied by the INDCs, results in higher costs per unit of abated emissions. On a regional level, the cost distribution is different across scenarios while fossil fuel exporters see the highest GDP reductions in all INDC, 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios

    Multi-Modality Therapeutics with Potent Anti-Tumor Effects: Photochemical Internalization Enhances Delivery of the Fusion Toxin scFvMEL/rGel

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    BACKGROUND: There is a need for drug delivery systems (DDS) that can enhance cytosolic delivery of anti-cancer drugs trapped in the endo-lysosomal compartments. Exposure of cells to specific photosensitizers followed by light exposure (photochemical internalization, PCI) results in transfer of agents from the endocytic compartment into the cytosol. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The recombinant single-chain fusion construct scFvMEL/rGel is composed of an antibody targeting the progenitor marker HMW-MAA/NG2/MGP/gp240 and the highly effective toxin gelonin (rGel). Here we demonstrate enhanced tumor cell selectivity, cytosolic delivery and anti-tumor activity by applying PCI of scFvMEL/rGel. PCI performed by light activation of cells co-incubated with scFvMEL/rGel and the endo-lysosomal targeting photosensitizers AlPcS(2a) or TPPS(2a) resulted in enhanced cytotoxic effects against antigen-positive cell lines, while no differences in cytotoxicity between the scFvMEL/rGel and rGel were observed in antigen-negative cells. Mice bearing well-developed melanoma (A-375) xenografts (50-100 mm(3)) were treated with PCI of scFvMEL/rGel. By 30 days after injection, approximately 100% of mice in the control groups had tumors>800 mm(3). In contrast, by day 40, 50% of mice in the PCI of scFvMEL/rGel combination group had tumors<800 mm(3) with no increase in tumor size up to 110 days. PCI of scFvMEL/rGel resulted in a synergistic effect (p<0.05) and complete regression (CR) in 33% of tumor-bearing mice (n = 12). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This is a unique demonstration that a non-invasive multi-modality approach combining a recombinant, targeted therapeutic such as scFvMEL/rGel and PCI act in concert to provide potent in vivo efficacy without sacrificing selectivity or enhancing toxicity. The present DDS warrants further evaluation of its clinical potential

    The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

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    This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and a middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 500-1100 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: 1) the policy assumptions, 2) the socio-economic narrative, and 3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectorial extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6)
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