11 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
Posttransplant Outcomes in Older Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Are Driven by Non–Hepatocellular Carcinoma Factors
- Author
- Adeniji Nia
- Agopian Vatche
- Ahmed Aijaz
- Arjunan Vinodhini
- Aucejo Federico
- Berumen Jennifer
- Busuttil Ronald W
- Carney Carol A
- Chapman William C
- Dhanasekaran Renumathy
- Fishbein Thomas M
- Florman Sander S
- Ghaziani Tara
- Ghobrial Mark
- Halazun Karim J
- Haydel Brandy
- Hong Johnny C
- Hoteit Maarouf A
- Humar Abhinav
- Jones Christopher M
- Klintmalm Goran B
- Kwo Paul
- Langnas Alan N
- Lee David D
- Mannalithara Ajitha
- Markmann James F
- Melcher Marc L
- Mobley Constance
- Nguyen Mindie
- Nydam Trevor L
- Prabhakar Vijay
- Rana Abbas
- Ruiz Richard M
- Schnickel Gabriel T
- Sudan Debra L
- Taner C Burcin
- Tevar Amit D
- Vachharajani Neeta
- Verna Elizabeth C
- Publication venue
- eScholarship, University of California
- Publication date
- 01/05/2021
- Field of study
The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is growing in the United States, especially among the elderly. Older patients are increasingly receiving transplants as a result of HCC, but the impact of advancing age on long-term posttransplant outcomes is not clear. To study this, we used data from the US Multicenter HCC Transplant Consortium of 4980 patients. We divided the patients into 4 groups by age at transplantation: 18 to 64 years (n = 4001), 65 to 69 years (n = 683), 70 to 74 years (n = 252), and ≥75 years (n = 44). There were no differences in HCC tumor stage, type of bridging locoregional therapy, or explant residual tumor between the groups. Older age was confirmed to be an independent and significant predictor of overall survival even after adjusting for demographic, etiologic, and cancer-related factors on multivariable analysis. A dose-response effect of age on survival was observed, with every 5-year increase in age older than 50 years resulting in an absolute increase of 8.3% in the mortality rate. Competing risk analysis revealed that older patients experienced higher rates of non-HCC-related mortality (P = 0.004), and not HCC-related death (P = 0.24). To delineate the precise cause of death, we further analyzed a single-center cohort of patients who received a transplant as a result of HCC (n = 302). Patients older than 65 years had a higher incidence of de novo cancer (18.1% versus 7.6%; P = 0.006) after transplantation and higher overall cancer-related mortality (14.3% versus 6.6%; P = 0.03). Even carefully selected elderly patients with HCC have significantly worse posttransplant survival rates, which are mostly driven by non-HCC-related causes. Minimizing immunosuppression and closer surveillance for de novo cancers can potentially improve the outcomes in elderly patients who received a transplant as a result of HCC
Recommended from our members
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Ababneh H. S.
- Abate Y. H.
- Abbafati C.
- Abbasgholizadeh R.
- Abbasian M.
- Abbastabar H.
- Abd Al Magied A. H. A.
- Abd ElHafeez S.
- Abd-Elsalam S.
- Abdelkader A.
- Abdelmasseh M.
- Abdi P.
- Abdollahi M.
- Abdoun M.
- Abdullahi A.
- Abebe M.
- Abiodun O.
- Aboagye R. G.
- Abolhassani H.
- Abouzid M.
- Aboye G. B.
- Abreu L. G.
- Absalan A.
- Abualruz H.
- Abubakar B.
- Abukhadijah H. J. J.
- Addolorato G.
- Adekanmbi V.
- Adetunji C. O.
- Adetunji J. B.
- Adeyeoluwa T. E.
- Adha R.
- Adhikary R. K.
- Adnani Q. E. S.
- Adzigbli L. A.
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- Afzal M. S.
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- Zyoud S. H.
- Zyoud S. H.
- Çakmak Barsbay M.
- Publication venue
- Elsevier BV
- Publication date
- 18/05/2024
- Field of study
Background
Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.
Methods
Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.
Findings
In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).
Interpretation
Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions
Balanitis and balanoposthitis: a review.
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- Publication venue
- 'BMJ'
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Cardiac Troponin T as a Marker of Myocardial Injury
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- A Burlina
- A Lindner
- AC Rao
- AH Wu
- AHB Wu
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- AJ Bakker
- AJ Bakker
- AJ Bakker
- AS Jaffe
- B Jurlander
- B Lauer
- B Lindahl
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- Baxter Diagnostics Inc.
- BE Sobel
- BH Walpoth
- BH Walpoth
- BJ Maron
- BP Latner
- C Haller
- C Velez
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- CA Trahern
- CR Conti
- CW Hamm
- D Kruger
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- E Antman
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- EH Herman
- EM Antman
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- H Baum
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- H Katus
- H Machler
- H-J Rupprecht
- HA Katus
- HA Katus
- HA Katus
- HA Katus
- HA Katus
- I Wagner
- J Hsai
- J Mair
- J Mair
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- J Mair
- J Ravkilde
- J Ravkilde
- J-C Gris
- JD Harnett
- JI Adams
- JP Keoman
- JR Anderson
- K Setsuta
- K Yasuda
- KM Chan
- KP Rentrop
- L Eikvar
- L Goldman
- L Hughes-Davies
- L Lavigne
- LF Tami
- LJ Kricka
- LJ Medeiros
- M Carrier
- M Hossein-Nia
- M Ishigami
- M Lofberg
- M Lorgeril de
- M Mueller-Bardoff
- M Mueller-Bardorff
- M Panteghini
- MA Karim
- MD McLaurin
- ME Ottlinger
- MI Schwarz
- N Genser
- NR Grubb
- P Bialk
- P Collinson
- P Cummins
- P Klootwijk
- PO Collinson
- PO Collinson
- PO Collinson
- PS Parfrey
- RE Fromm
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- RL Fitzgerald
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- S Abe
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- S Trinquier
- S Yamamoto
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- SC Curry
- SE Lipshultz
- SY Chan
- T Jensen
- T Omura
- T Uchino
- TH Lee
- The TIMI IIIB Investigators
- TJ Ryan
- TM Guest
- U Hake
- V Bhayana
- V Bhayana
- V Wizemann
- W Gerhardt
- W Gerhardt
- W Gerhardt
- W Hannes
- W Lechner
- WB Burns
- WH Horl
- WL Biffl
- WL Frankel
- WM Franz
- World Health Organization Copenhagen, Regional Office for Europe. Ischemic heart disease registers report of the fifth working group
- Y Seino
- YJ Feng
- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- 01/01/1998
- Field of study
Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks, 1990-2022
- Author
- Abate Yohannes Habtegiorgis
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abd-Allah Foad
- Abdollahi Ashkan
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdulah Deldar Morad
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abebe Ayele Mamo
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Armita
- Abiodun Olugbenga Olusola
- Abkenar Yasaman Taheri
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen M.E.
- Abu-Zaid Ahmed
- Aburuz Salahdein
- Abushouk Abdelrahman I.
- Adane Tigist Demssew
- Adderley Nicola J.
- Adebayo Oladimeji M.
- Aden Bashir
- Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther
- Adeyomoye Olorunsola Israel
- Afrashteh Fatemeh
- Afyouni Shadi
- Afzal Saira
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Agodi Antonella
- Aguilera Arriagada Constanza Elizabeth
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Danish
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M.
- Ahmed Malik Muhammad Sajeel
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Ajami Marjan
- Akinosoglou Karolina
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Marwani Sabah
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M.
- Ala Moein
- Alalalmeh Samer O.
- Alam Nazmul
- Alashi Alaa
- Albashtawy Mohammed
- AlBataineh Mohammad T.
- Alema Haileselasie Berhane
- Alemi Sharifullah
- Alemu Yihun Mulugeta
- Alhabib Khalid F.
- Ali AL-Ahdal Tareq Mohammed
- Ali Hiwa Abubaker
- Ali Mohammed Usman
- Ali Rafat
- Alicandro Gianfranco
- Alikhani Reyhaneh
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alla François
- Almahmeed Wael
- Alonso Jordi
- Alvi Farrukh Jawad
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Alvis-Zakzuk Nelson J.
- Alwafi Hassan
- Aly Hany
- Amegbor Prince M.
- Amin Tarek Tawfik
- Amindarolzarbi Alireza
- Amini-Rarani Mostafa
- Amiri Sohrab
- Ammirati Enrico
- Anand Tanu
- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderlini Deanna
- Anil Abhishek
- Ansari Golnoosh
- Ansari Noureddin Nakhostin
- Anyanwu Philip Emeka
- Anyasodor Anayochukwu Edward
- Arabloo Jalal
- Arafat Mosab
- Aravkin Aleksandr Y.
- Aremu Olatunde
- Armocida Benedetta
- Arowosegbe Oluwaseyi Olalekan
- Artamonov Anton A.
- Artanti Kurnia Dwi
- Arulappan Judie
- Aruleba Idowu Thomas
- Arumugam Ashokan
- Aryan Zahra
- Asghari-Jafarabadi Mohammad
- Asl Farshad Bahrami
- Asrat Derese Awoke Masrie
- Astell-Burt Thomas
- Ataei Mahshid
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- Atreya Alok
- Aujayeb Avinash
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- Baltatu Ovidiu Constantin
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- Baradaran Hamid Reza
- Barbic Franca
- Barchitta Martina
- Bardhan Mainak
- Barker-Collo Suzanne Lyn
- Barone-Adesi Francesco
- Barteit Sandra
- Barua Lingkan
- Bashiri Azadeh
- Bayati Mohsen
- Bayileyegn Nebiyou Simegnew
- Behboudi Emad
- Behnoush Amir Hossein
- Belay Sefealem Assefa
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- Borhany Hamed
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- Bärnighausen Till Winfried
- Béjot Yannick
- Calina Daniela
- Cao Fan
- Carabeo Medina John Robert
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- Carvalho Márcia
- Castaldelli-Maia Joao Mauricio
- Castañeda-Orjuela Carlos A.
- Cattaruzza Luca Cegolon Maria Sofia
- Cerin Ester
- Chahine Yaacoub
- Chan Mei Yen
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- Chandra Banik Palash
- Charalampous Periklis
- Charan Jaykaran
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
- Chellaiyan Devanbu Vinoth Gnana
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- Chi Gerald
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- Cindi Zinhle
- Cioffi Iolanda
- Coberly Kaleb
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- Columbus Alyssa
- Conde Joao
- Conti Sara
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- Cortés Sandra
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- Dai Zhaoli
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- Damavandi Payam Tabaee
- Damiani Giovanni
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- Delgado-Enciso Ivan
- Delgado-Saborit Juana Maria
- Demessa Berecha Hundessa
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- Dsouza Ashel Chelsea
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- Dsouza Viola
- Du Mi
- Duraes Andre Rodrigues
- Durojaiye Oyewole Christopher
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- Efendi Ferry
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- Feng Xiaoqi
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- Fleszar Laura
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- Gaidhane Shilpa
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- Goyal Kashish
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- Guarducci Giovanni
- Gudeta Mesay Dechasa
- Guha Avirup
- Guicciardi Stefano
- Gulisashvili David
- Gunawardane Damitha Asanga
- Guo Cui
- Gupta Anish Kumar
- Gupta Bhawna
- Gupta Indarchand Ratanlal
- Gupta Kartik
- Gupta Mohak
- Gupta Rajat Das
- Gupta Rajeev
- Gupta Renu
- Gupta Sapna
- Gupta Veer Bala
- Gupta Vijai Kumar
- Gupta Vivek Kumar
- Gurmessa Lami
- Gutiérrez Reyna Alma
- Habibzadeh Farrokh
- Hadei Mostafa
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- Halimi Aram
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- Haro Josep Maria
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- Herrera-Serna Brenda Yuliana
- Herteliu Claudiu
- Hesami Hamed
- Hessami Kamran
- Heydari Keyvan
- Hezam Kamal
- Hiraike Yuta
- Hoan Nguyen Quoc
- Holla Ramesh
- Hossain Md Mahbub
- Hossain Md. Belal
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- Hosseinzadeh Mehdi
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- Kar Sitanshu Sekhar
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- Kaydi Neda
- Kazemi Foad
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- Khadembashiri Mohammad Amin
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- Khalid Nauman
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- Koyanagi Ai
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- Krishnamoorthy Yuvaraj
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- Kumsa Netsanet Bogale
- Kunle Kunle Rotimi
- Kusuma Dian
- Kyriopoulos Ilias
- La Vecchia Carlo
- Lacey Ben
- Ladan Muhammad Awwal
- Laflamme Lucie
- Lahariya Chandrakant
- Lahiri Arista
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- Lan Qing
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- Lanfranchi Francesco
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- Lasrado Savita
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- Mohammadi Soheil
- Mohammed Hussen
- Mohammed Mustapha
- Mohammed Salahuddin
- Mohammed Shafiu
- Moka Nagabhishek
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- Momtazmanesh Sara
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- Nejjari Chakib
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- Nepal Samata
- Ng Nawi
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- Okeke Sylvester Reuben
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- Oluwafemi Yinka Doris
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- Pan Feng
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- Pandi-Perumal Seithikurippu R.
- Papadopoulou Paraskevi
- Park Seoyeon
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- Philip Anil K.
- Phuong Do Thao Huynh
- Pigott David M.
- Pilgrim Thomas
- Piradov Michael A.
- Plotnikov Evgenii
- Poddighe Dimitri
- Polibin Roman V.
- Poluru Ramesh
- Pourali Ghazaleh
- Pourshams Akram
- Prasad D. R. Mahadeshwara
- Prasad Manya
- Purohit Bharathi M.
- pursuing PhD.
- Puvvula Jagadeesh
- Qattea Ibrahim
- Qian Gangzhen
- Qureshi Maryam Faiz
- Rabiee rad Mehrdad
- Rad Elaheh Malakan
- Radfar Amir
- Rafiei Alavi Seyedeh Niloufar
- Rafique Ibrar
- Raggi Alberto
- Rahim Fakher
- Rahim Md Jillur
- Rahimi Mehran
- Rahman Dewan Syed Masudur
- Rahman Mosiur
- Rahman Muhammad Aziz
- Rahmani Amir Masoud
- Rahmani Bita
- Rahmani Shayan
- Rahmanian Vahid
- Rai Pramila
- Rajaa Sathish
- Rajabpour-Sanati Ali
- Rajput Prashant
- Ram Pradhum
- Ram Prasanna
- Rama Krishna Reddy Murali Mohan
- Ramalingam Sudha
- Ramasamy Shakthi Kumaran
- Ramazanu Sheena
- Ramesh Pushkal Sinduvadi
- Rana Juwel
- Rana Kritika
- Ranabhat Chhabi Lal
- Rancic Nemanja
- Rane Amey
- Ranjan Shubham
- Ranta Annemarei
- Rao Indu Ramachandra
- Rao Mithun
- Rao Sowmya J.
- Rashedi Sina
- Rashedi Vahid
- Rashid Ahmed Mustafa
- Rasul Azad
- Ratan Zubair Ahmed
- Ravikumar Nakul
- Rawaf Salman
- Razeghian-Jahromi Iman
- Razo Christian
- Remuzzi Giuseppe
- Reyes Luis Felipe
- Rezaei Nazila
- Rezaeian Mohsen
- Ribeiro Antonio Luiz P.
- Ribeiro Daniela
- Rikhtegar Reza
- Roever Leonardo
- Romadlon Debby Syahru
- Ronfani Luca
- Roth Gregory A.
- Roth Gregory A.
- Roy Nitai
- Roy Priyanka
- Rynkiewicz Andrzej
- Saad Aly M.A.
- Saadatian Zahra
- Sabour Siamak
- Sacco Simona
- Sachdeva Rajesh
- Saddik Basema
- Sadeghi Erfan
- Sady Prates Elton Junio
- Saeed Al-Gheethi Adel Ali
- Saeed Umar
- Safaeinejad Fahimeh
- Sahebkar Amirhossein
- Sahoo Soumya Swaroop
- Sajedi Seyed Aidin
- Sajid Mirza Rizwan
- Sakilah Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas
- Sakshaug Joseph W.
- Salam Nasir
- Salami Afeez Abolarinwa
- Saleh Mohamed A.
- Salehi Sana
- Salem Marwa Rashad
- Salem Mohammed Z.Y.
- Samadzadeh Sara
- Samargandy Saad
- Samuel Vijaya Paul
- Samy Abdallah M.
- Sanabria Juan
- Sanjeev Rama Krishna
- Santric-Milicevic Milena M.
- Sarasmita Made Ary
- Saravanan Aswini
- Sarikhani Yaser
- Sarkar Tanmay
- Sarmiento-Suárez Rodrigo
- Sarode Gargi Sachin
- Sarode Sachin C.
- Sathish Thirunavukkarasu
- Sathyanarayan Anudeep
- Sawhney Monika
- Sayyah Mehdi
- Scarmeas Nikolaos
- Schaarschmidt Benedikt Michael
- Schuermans Art
- Schumacher Austin E.
- Schutte Aletta Elisabeth
- Schwebel David C.
- Sci (Med) Cand of
- Sedighi Mansour
- Seidu Abdul-Aziz
- Sekhar Rout Himanshu Sehar
- Semnani Farbod
- Senapati Sabyasachi
- Sengupta Pallav
- Senthilkumaran Subramanian
- Sepanlou Sadaf G.
- Sethi Yashendra
- Seyedi Seyed Arsalan
- Seylani Allen
- Shabany Maryam
- Shafeghat Melika
- Shafie Mahan
- Shah Pritik A.
- Shahbandi Ataollah
- Shahid Izza
- Shahid Samiah
- Shahid Wajeehah
- Shahrokh Abadi Reza Nejad
- Shahwan Moyad Jamal
- Shaikh Masood Ali
- Sham Sunder
- Shamim Muhammad Aaqib
- Shanawaz Mohd
- Sharfaei Sadaf
- Sharif-Askari Fatemeh Saheb
- Sharif-Askari Narjes Saheb
- Sharifan Amin
- Sharifi-Rad Javad
- Shariful Islam Sheikh Mohammed
- Sharma Purva
- Sharma Saurab
- Sharma Ujjawal
- Sharma Vishal
- Sheikh Aziz
- Shiferaw Desalegn Shiferaw
- Shigematsu Mika
- Shin Min-Jeong
- Shiri Rahman
- Shishani Kawkab
- Shittu Aminu
- Shiue Ivy
- Shivakumar K.M.
- Shrestha Sunil
- Shujait Ali Syed Shujait
- Shuval Kerem
- Sibhat Migbar Mekonnen
- Sigfusdottir Inga Dora
- Simpson Colin R.
- Singh Pradhan Pranil Man
- Singh Abhinav
- Singh Aditya
- Singh Ambrish
- Singh Jasvinder A.
- Singh Paramdeep
- Singh Rajat
- Singh Surjit
- Siraj Md Shahjahan
- Skryabin Valentin Yurievich
- Skryabina Anna Aleksandrovna
- Sleet David A.
- Sofia e Sá Farinha Carla
- Soleimani Hamidreza
- Solikhah Solikhah
- Soliman Sameh S.M.
- Son Juyeon
- Song Suhang
- Song Yi
- Soriano Joan B.
- Spartalis Michael
- Sreeramareddy Chandrashekhar T.
- Srikanth Bhagavathula Akshaya Srikanth
- Stafford Lauryn K.
- Stark Benjamin A.
- Steiropoulos Paschalis
- Stortecky Stefan
- Sultana Abida
- Sundström Johan
- Swain Chandan Kumar
- Swamy Sreenivas Narasimha
- Tabatabaei Seyyed Mohammad
- Tabatabaeizadeh Seyed-Amir
- Tabatabai Shima
- Tabb Karen M.
- Tabish Mohammad
- Tabuchi Takahiro
- Tadese Fentaw
- Taiba Jabeen
- Tajrishi Farbod Zahedi
- Talaat Iman M.
- Tampa Mircea
- Tan Ker-Kan
- Tang Haosu
- Tarkang Elvis Enowbeyang
- Tat Nathan Y.
- Tavangar Seyed Mohammad
- Tehrani Hadi
- Teimoori Mojtaba
- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
- Teramoto Masayuki
- Thangaraju Pugazhenthan
- Thanh Le Trang Diep
- Thankappan Kavumpurathu Raman
- Thapa Rajshree
- Thapar Rekha
- Thavamani Aravind
- Thayakaran Rasiah
- Thomas Nikhil Kenny
- Thu Le Thao Thi
- Tian Jing
- Tichopad Ales
- Tillawi Tala
- Tonelli Marcello
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Touvier Mathilde
- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Tran Jasmine T.
- Tran Nghia Minh
- Tri Tai Truyen Thien Tan
- Trihandini Indang
- Tripathi Avnish
- Tromans Samuel Joseph
- Truong Vien T.
- Tsatsakis Aristidis
- Tsegay Guesh Mebrahtom
- Tsermpini Evangelia Eirini
- Tumurkhuu Munkhtuya
- Tung Kang
- Ubah Chukwudi S.
- Udoakang Aniefiok John
- Udoh Arit
- Ullah Atta
- Ullah Sana
- Umair Muhammad
- Umar Tungki Pratama
- Unim Brigid
- Unnikrishnan Bhaskaran
- Upadhyay Era
- Usman Jibrin Sammani
- Vahabi Seyed Mohammad
- Vaithinathan Asokan Govindaraj
- Valizadeh Rohollah
- Van den Eynde Jef
- Van Tran Phu
- Vardanjani Hossein Molavi
- Varga Orsolya
- Varma Siddhartha Alluri
- Varnosfaderani Mahsa Pahlavikhah
- Vart Priya
- Varthya Shoban Babu
- Vasankari Tommi Juhani
- Vellingiri Balachandar
- Vervoort Dominique
- Villafañe Jorge Hugo
- Violante Francesco S.
- Viskadourou Maria
- Volovat Simona Ruxandra
- Vos Theo
- Vujcic Isidora S.
- Wafa Hatem A.
- Wahab Feras
- Wang Cong
- Wang Fang
- Wang Nelson
- Wang Shu
- Wang Yanzhong
- Wang Yuan-Pang
- Wei Melissa Y.
- Werdecker Andrea
- Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana
- Wijeratne Tissa
- Wilandika Angga
- Wilson Shadrach
- Wolfe Charles D.A.
- Wongsin Utoomporn
- Wu Zenghong
- Xiao Hong
- Xu Suowen
- Xu Xiaoyue
- Yadav Lalit
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yaribeygi Habib
- Yasufuku Yuichi
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yezli Saber
- Yilma Mekdes Tigistu
- Yiğit Arzu
- Yiğit Vahit
- Yon Dong Keon
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yousefi Zabihollah
- Yperzeele Laetitia
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yunusa Ismaeel
- Zafari Nima
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zeineddine Mohammad A.
- Zemedikun Dawit T.
- Zeng Youjie
- Zhai Chunxia
- Zhang Chen
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Hongwei
- Zhang Liqun
- Zhang Ning
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhao Hanqing
- Zheng Peng
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Shuduo
- Zhu Bin
- Zhu Lei
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zikarg Yossef Teshome
- Zmaili Mohammad
- Zoeckler Leo Zucker
- Zou Zhiyong
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zweck Elric
- Zyoud Samer H.
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Publication venue
- Elsevier Inc.
- Publication date
- 01/01/2023
- Field of study
纳米结构导电聚合物及其复合材料的研究进展: 制备, 应用和展望
- Author
- A Bahuguna
- A Benchirouf
- A De
- A Eftekhari
- A Eftekhari
- A Hagfeldt
- A J Jr MacDiarmid
- A Mirabedini
- A Moyseowicz
- A Nautiyal
- A Nie
- A Sajedi-Moghaddam
- A Singh
- A Sultana
- A Tsurumaki
- A Zheng
- AA Hermas
- AG MacDiarmid
- AHP Oliveira de
- AJ Heeger
- AK Himanshu
- AL Wang
- AM Bryan
- APF Turner
- AT Mane
- B Anothumakkool
- B Mu
- B Timmer
- B Wessling
- BG Kim
- C Acikgoz
- C Chen
- C Cho
- C Hu
- C Huang
- C Huang
- C Liu
- C Meng
- C Mijangos
- C Putson
- C Qi
- C Qiu
- C Sha
- C V Martin
- C Xia
- C Xiang
- C Yang
- C Zhan
- C Zhou
- CA Ferreira
- CC Wang
- CK Chiang
- CO Baker
- CR Martin
- CR Martin
- CX Guo
- D Chao
- D Jaaoh
- D Jaaoh
- D Kim
- D Kumar
- D Nguyen
- D Pech
- D Qin
- D Zhai
- DC Trivedi
- DH Nam
- DK Bandgar
- DM Lenz
- DW DeBerry
- DW Hatchett
- E Bayram
- E Muhammad
- E Ngaboyamahina
- E Park
- E Sapountzi
- EM Genies
- F Arabloo
- F Fang
- F Jiang
- F Shahzad
- F Sun
- F Wu
- F Zhang
- FR Fan
- G Cai
- G Inzelt
- G Kaur
- G Li
- G Liu
- G Mengoli
- G Qiu
- G Qu
- G Wang
- G Zhu
- GA Snook
- GD Fu
- GL Xu
- H Bai
- H Bhandari
- H Chen
- H Choi
- H Gülce
- H Ju
- H Li
- H Li
- H Mao
- H Nguyen Thi Le
- H Shirakawa
- H Ullah
- H Wang
- H Wang
- H Wang
- H Wu
- H Yang
- H Yoon
- H Zhao
- H Zhao
- H Zhou
- HD Tran
- HD Tran
- HP Cong
- HR Jiang
- HS Dehsari
- HU Lee
- HW Siao
- I Fratoddi
- IH Ko
- IM Taylor
- J Chmiola
- J Deng
- J Deng
- J Han
- J Han
- J Huang
- J Huang
- J Janata
- J Jang
- J Jang
- J Jang
- J Jun
- J Kim
- J Lei
- J Li
- J Luo
- J Lyu
- J Pan
- J Sarfraz
- J Sarfraz
- J Wang
- J Wang
- J Wang
- J Wang
- J Wang
- J Wang
- J Wu
- J Xiang
- J Xu
- J Xu
- J Xu
- J Yang
- J Zhang
- J Zhang
- J Zhao
- J Zhu
- JB Goodenough
- JF Pagotto
- JK Yuan
- JL Camalet
- JL Duvail
- JN Gavgani
- JR Cárdenas
- K Cai
- K Ghanbari
- K Gopalakrishnan
- K Jackowska
- K Shehzad
- K Su
- K Wang
- KC See
- KE Hnida
- L Fang
- L Hong
- L Jiang
- L Jin
- L Jin
- L Kumar
- L Liang
- L Pan
- L Wang
- L Wang
- L Wang
- L Wang
- L Wang
- L Wang
- L Wen
- L Yang
- L Yang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- L Zhang
- LL Liu
- M Ates
- M Ates
- M Ates
- M Behl
- M Bhaumik
- M Chi
- M Eising
- M Geissler
- M Gerard
- M Granström
- M Hasan
- M Kaempgen
- M Marimuthu
- M Mastragostino
- M Molberg
- M Shahadat
- M Xu
- M Zhang
- M Zhang
- M Zheng
- M Zhybak
- MA Bavio
- MA Salam
- MA Soto-Oviedo
- MD Shirsat
- ME Abdelhamid
- MF El-Kady
- MG Hosseini
- MH Yang
- MR Gao
- MR Karim
- MR Mahmoudian
- N Agnihotri
- N Ahmad
- N Amariei
- N Aydemir
- N J Jr Pinto
- N Joseph
- N Kizildag
- N Kurra
- N Nuraje
- N Parveen
- NE Coates
- NK Guimard
- NK Sidhu
- O Zubillaga
- P Gahlout
- P He
- P Li
- P Saini
- P Sengodu
- P Tan
- P Wu
- PE Williams
- PG Su
- PM Nia
- PP Deshpande
- Prateek
- PS Bass
- PS Thapa
- PY Tang
- Q Chen
- Q Rong
- Q Wang
- Q Yao
- Q Zhang
- Q Zhang
- R Samsur
- R Saravanan
- R v Bandeira
- Rajesh
- RC Zhang
- RR Mohan
- RR Salunkhe
- S Abdulla
- S Bai
- S Bai
- S Biswas
- S Cho
- S Cui
- S Dhibar
- S Dutt
- S Ghosh
- S Khilari
- S Lawes
- S Moon
- S Mousavi
- S Poyraz
- S Poyraz
- S Poyraz
- S Radhakrishnan
- S S Geetha
- S Shrivastava
- S Virji
- S Virji
- S Wang
- S Yu
- SC Luo
- SI Cho
- SI Razak Abd
- SK Pillalamarri
- SK Simotwo
- SR Nalage
- SW Woo
- T Chen
- T Cheng
- T Ji
- T Kuang
- T Marimuthu
- T Schaftinghen Van
- T Tian
- T Wen
- TH Hu
- TK Das
- TS Kang
- U Bogdanovic
- U Bogdanovic
- UV Patil
- V Babayan
- V Mini
- V Miškovic-Stankovic
- VH Nguyen
- VP Singh
- W He
- W Jiang
- W Lei
- W Liu
- W Song
- W Tang
- W Wang
- W Xu
- W Zheng
- X Bai
- X Feng
- X Gong
- X He
- X Huang
- X Liao
- X Lin
- X Lu
- X Shan
- X Shi
- X Wang
- X Wei
- X Yang
- X Yu
- X Zhang
- X Zhang
- X Zhang
- X Zhang
- X Zhang
- X Zhang
- X Zhang
- X Zhang
- X Zhang
- X Zhang
- X Zhao
- X Zhao
- X Zhuang
- XB Zhong
- Y Bhattacharjee
- Y Du
- Y Guo
- Y Harima
- Y Jafari
- Y Jiang
- Y Lattach
- Y Lattach
- Y Lee
- Y Li
- Y Li
- Y Liu
- Y Liu
- Y Tan
- Y Wang
- Y Wang
- Y Wang
- Y Wu
- Y Xia
- Y Xie
- Y Yang
- Y Yu
- Y Yu
- Y Zeng
- Y Zhang
- Y Zhang
- Y Zhang
- Y Zhang
- Y Zhao
- Y Zheng
- YJ Huang
- YY Zhang
- YZ Long
- Z Cai
- Z Cai
- Z Chen
- Z Cheng
- Z Hu
- Z Liu
- Z Liu
- Z Liu
- Z Liu
- Z Liu
- Z Liu
- Z Miao
- Z Nie
- Z Qi
- Z Wang
- Z Wu
- Z Yang
- Z Yin
- Z Yin
- Z Yu
- Z Zeng
- Z Zhang
- Z Zhang
- ZG Chen
- ZM Dang
- ZW Seh
- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- Field of study
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin (18346572)
- Aanuoluwa James Salemcity (18803035)
- Aaron J Cohen (8673585)
- Abbas Mosapour (9154247)
- Abdallah HA Abd Al Magied (18802573)
- Abdallah M Samy (8383428)
- Abdallah Y Naser (18347016)
- Abdelghani Tbakhi (12229742)
- Abdoljalal Marjani (18346929)
- Abdorrahim Absalan (18578551)
- Abdul Hafiz (89029)
- Abdul Wadood Wadood (18803098)
- Abdul Waris (712246)
- Abdulaal Chitheer (8673570)
- Abdulahi Opejin Opejin (18802957)
- Abdulaziz T Bako (18346515)
- Abdulfatai Aremu (9536881)
- Abdulqadir J Nashwan (17991280)
- Abera M Mersha (12150669)
- Abhinav Singh (358909)
- Abhishek Anil (17937800)
- Abhishek Shankar (18207631)
- Abid Ali (3123210)
- Abida Sultana (8147670)
- Abiola Ogunkoya (17255770)
- Abu Sayeed (195793)
- Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau (7623503)
- Abzal Zhumagaliuly (17612982)
- Adalia I Ikiroma (18802801)
- Adam Saddler (386039)
- Adarsh Raja (17612754)
- Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe (18802633)
- Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi (18267274)
- Adel B Elmoselhi (18802711)
- Adel Hajj Ali (18802777)
- Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe (4344979)
- Adesola Adenike Ogunfowokan (18802948)
- Adnan Kisa (6419198)
- Adquate Mhlanga (18346968)
- Adrian Otoiu (9714965)
- Adriana Dima (18346644)
- Afeez Abolarinwa Salami (18059419)
- Afisu Basiru (18346530)
- Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan (9154253)
- Ahmad Alrawashdeh (8672271)
- Ahmad Azam Malik (6166283)
- Ahmad Ozair (11358042)
- Ahmad Pour-Rashidi (17030889)
- Ahmed I Hasaballah (9154109)
- Ahmed Ismail Mohamed (18346986)
- Ahmed Mustafa Rashid (12159296)
- Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi (11438932)
- Akhilanand Chaurasia (12229490)
- Akila Prashant (433606)
- Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle (7492583)
- Akram Al-Ibraheem (17257081)
- Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula (7405757)
- Ala'a B Al-Tammemi (18802612)
- Alanna Gomes da Silva (18802693)
- Alberto Freitas (4784418)
- Alberto Ortiz (108398)
- Alberto Raggi (765515)
- Alejandro Botero Carvajal (16510287)
- Aleksandr Y Aravkin (9714434)
- Alem Girmay (8173929)
- Alessandra C Goulart (8673807)
- Aletta Elisabeth Schutte (8674434)
- Alexander G Mathioudakis (18301831)
- Alexios-Fotios A Mentis (12229619)
- Ali Ardekani (11010866)
- Ali Fatehizadeh (11978754)
- Ali Gholamrezanezhad (11082020)
- Ali H Mokdad (8383332)
- Ali Hajj Ali (18802780)
- Ali Kabir (9154145)
- Ali Mansour (3278976)
- Ali Nikoobar (12340897)
- Ali S Shalash (9154358)
- Ali Shamekh (12910367)
- Ali-Asghar Kolahi (11168677)
- Alicia Padron-Monedero (11875439)
- Alimuddin Zumla (65389)
- Alireza Amindarolzarbi (18346476)
- Alireza Ebrahimi (9729951)
- Alireza Khalilian (18297268)
- Alireza Mirahmadi (18802882)
- Alireza Saghafi (18803029)
- Aliza J Hunt (18802795)
- Allen Seylani (10195494)
- Almaza Albakri (18346443)
- Aly MA Saad (17255791)
- Alyssa Columbus (18346608)
- Amanda E Smith (18347400)
- Amartya Kundu (12003234)
- Ameen Mosa Mohammad (18802891)
- Amel Ouyahia (12997081)
- Amey Rane (18347151)
- Amin Reza Nikpoor (3745657)
- Amin Sharifan (16416675)
- Aminu Shittu (9544250)
- Amir Anoushiravani (18278710)
- Amir Hossein Behnoush (14501081)
- Amir Masoud Rahmani (11553799)
- Amir Shiani (15441481)
- Amir Yarahmadi (18803119)
- AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf (18802897)
- Amirhossein Sahebkar (1452028)
- Amirmohammad Khalaji (14501090)
- Amjad Ali (51075)
- Amjad S Al Mosa (18802582)
- Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun (9930709)
- Amol S Dhane (18802702)
- Amr Hassan (9715952)
- Amy E Peden (9714992)
- An Thien Tran (18803080)
- An-Tian Chen (18346590)
- Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá (18802879)
- Ana-Maria Musina (12258489)
- Anamika Pandey (2575252)
- Anar Dushpanova (487211)
- Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor (12229430)
- Anca Mihaela Pantea Stoian (18347094)
- Anders O Larsson (9714878)
- Andre Faro (8383188)
- Andre Rodrigues Duraes (9714668)
- Andrea Carugno (18346584)
- Andrea Maugeri (638416)
- Andrew T Olagunju (6568496)
- Angelo Capodici (12095986)
- Anh Hoang Nguyen (18802924)
- Anil K Philip (18347112)
- Anis Ahmad Chaudhary (11493109)
- Anish Kumar Gupta (18346761)
- Anisuddin Ahmed (8822351)
- Anmol Goyal (13870651)
- Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen (8673996)
- Anna Laura W McKowen (18802867)
- Annie Haakenstad (673009)
- Annie J Browne (18802666)
- Anton A Artamonov (13268538)
- Antonella Agodi (638417)
- Antonina V Starodubova (18347280)
- Antonio Mazzotti (10157512)
- Antonio Mirijello (4818981)
- Anupam Sharma (4433434)
- Anurag Agrawal (129354)
- Apostolos Beloukas (776128)
- Aqeel Ahmad (2267113)
- Ariane Laplante-Lévesque (836101)
- Arianna Maever Loreche (18802840)
- Arief Hargono (11553715)
- Aristidis Tsatsakis (6373811)
- Arit Udoh (5045699)
- Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic (18346674)
- Arokiasamy Perianayagam (396372)
- Art Schuermans (18347220)
- Arthur Caye (6540401)
- Artyom Urievich Gil (18346746)
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- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 16/05/2024
- Field of study
BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p
The surgical safety checklist and patient outcomes after surgery: a prospective observational cohort study, systematic review and meta-analysis
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- Ab Majid Mohd Azuan
- Ab Rahman Ahmad Sufian
- Ab Rahman Rusnah
- Abayasinghe Chamika
- Abbas Muntadhar
- Abbott T. E. F.
- Abbott Tom
- Abd Ghafar Fara Nur Idayu
- Abd Hadi Husni Zaeem
- Abdel Goad Ehab Helmy
- Abdullah Noor Hairiza
- Abdur-Rahman Lukman
- Abeloos Jacques
- Abernethy Caroline
- Abidin Ucu Nurhadiat
- Abrunhosa Alexandra
- Absar Mohammed
- Adam Suwayba
- Adams David
- Adams George
- Adamson Michael
- Adekola Oyebola
- Adelaja Yemi
- Ademola Adeyinka
- Adenekan Anthony
- Adenike Odewabi
- Adeolu Augustine A.
- Adetoye Adedapo
- Adewale Badru
- Adigun Tinuola
- Adolfsson Anne
- Africander Cucu
- Afshari Arash
- Agarwal Vandana
- Agodirin Olayide
- Aguzzoli Crisitiano
- Ahamed khader null
- Ahmad Azam Ummi Azmira
- Ahmad Abdurrahman
- Ahmad Norfaizan
- Ahmad T.
- Ahmad Tahania
- Ahmad Yousra
- Ahmed Ahmed
- Ahmed Jamil
- Ahmed Tahania
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- Aimoniotou-Georgiou Eleni
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- Zbitnew Geoff
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- Zerman Luiza
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- Zhang Ye
- Zhang Yuan
- Zhao Bing
- Zhao Bo
- Zhao Chong
- Zhao Jiashi
- Zhao Jinning
- Zhao Lei
- Zhao Lili
- Zhao Shuna
- Zhao Ting
- Zhao Weihong
- Zhao Weilu
- Zhao Xiaoying
- Zhen Jungang
- Zheng Kang
- Zheng Lina
- Zheng Tianzhao
- Zhong Yi
- Zhou Ce
- Zhou Dachun
- Zhou Haidong
- Zhou Haiyan
- Zhou Jiali
- Zhou Jialong
- Zhou Jing
- Zhou Xian-jin
- Zhu Xiaomao
- Zhu Xiaoping
- Zhu Yi
- Zhu Zhipeng
- Zhuang Xiuxiu
- Zilis Georgios
- Zingerle Nicolette
- Zingg Urs
- Zoerner Frank
- Zonneveldt Harry
- Zou Xiaohua
- Zoulamoglou Menelaos
- Zsisku Lajos
- Åkring Irene
- Ögren Katrin
- Publication venue
- Health Sciences Research Commons
- Publication date
- 30/10/2017
- Field of study
© 2017 British Journal of Anaesthesia Background: The surgical safety checklist is widely used to improve the quality of perioperative care. However, clinicians continue to debate the clinical effectiveness of this tool. Methods: Prospective analysis of data from the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), an international observational study of elective in-patient surgery, accompanied by a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature. The exposure was surgical safety checklist use. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and the secondary outcome was postoperative complications. In the ISOS cohort, a multivariable multi-level generalized linear model was used to test associations. To further contextualise these findings, we included the results from the ISOS cohort in a meta-analysis. Results are reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. Results: We included 44 814 patients from 497 hospitals in 27 countries in the ISOS analysis. There were 40 245 (89.8%) patients exposed to the checklist, whilst 7508 (16.8%) sustained ≥1 postoperative complications and 207 (0.5%) died before hospital discharge. Checklist exposure was associated with reduced mortality [odds ratio (OR) 0.49 (0.32–0.77); P\u3c0.01], but no difference in complication rates [OR 1.02 (0.88–1.19); P=0.75]. In a systematic review, we screened 3732 records and identified 11 eligible studies of 453 292 patients including the ISOS cohort. Checklist exposure was associated with both reduced postoperative mortality [OR 0.75 (0.62–0.92); P\u3c0.01; I2=87%] and reduced complication rates [OR 0.73 (0.61–0.88); P\u3c0.01; I2=89%). Conclusions: Patients exposed to a surgical safety checklist experience better postoperative outcomes, but this could simply reflect wider quality of care in hospitals where checklist use is routine
Prospective observational cohort study on grading the severity of postoperative complications in global surgery research
- Author
- Abayasinghe Chamika
- Abbas Muntadhar
- Abbott T. E. F.
- Abbott Tom
- Abdullah Noor Hairiza
- Abdur-Rahman Lukman
- Abeloos Jacques
- Abernethy Caroline
- Abidin Ucu Nurhadiat
- Abrunhosa Alexandra
- Absar Mohammed
- Adam Suwayba
- Adams George
- Adamson Michael
- Adekola Oyebola
- Adelaja Yemi
- Ademola Adeyinka
- Adenekan Anthony
- Adenike Odewabi
- Adeolu Augustine A
- Adetoye Adedapo
- Adewale Badru
- Adigun Tinuola
- Adolfsson Anne
- Aflori Laura
- Africander Cucu
- Afshari Arash
- Agarwal Vandana
- Agodirin Olayide
- Aguzzoli Crisitiano
- Ahmad Abdurrahman
- Ahmad Norfaizan
- Ahmad T.
- Ahmad Tahania
- Ahmad Yousra
- Ahmed Ahmed
- Ahmed Jamil
- Ahmed Tahania
- Ai Yanqiu
- Aignatoaie Mariana
- Aimoniotou-Georgiou Eleni
- Akanmu Olanrewaju
- Akerman Nik
- Akinwale Mukaila
- Al Amri Khalid
- Al Hussaini Sabah
- Al-Soudaine Yassr
- Aladin Hafiz
- Alagbe-Briggs Olubusola
- Albaj Safauldeensalem
- Alcock David
- Alcock Liam
- Aldecoa Cesar
- Aldecoa Cesar
- Aleixo Fábia Berganton
- Alexander Hazel
- Alexander Maini
- Alexander-Sefre Farhad
- Alherz Fadhel
- Ali Hani
- Ali Marlynn
- Ali Sarah
- Alias Abdul Hafiz
- Alias Anita
- Alias Raja Liza Raja
- Allen Samantha
- Allen Sara Jane
- Allison Joanna
- Alloj Chiara
- Allorto Nikki Leigh
- Allsop Joanne
- Almeida William
- Alonso Eduardo
- Alonso José Ignacio
- Alphonsus Christella
- Alvares Danielle
- Alves Maria Joao
- Amador Juan Carlos Bravo
- Ameer Yusuf
- Amendola Cristina Prata
- Ami Noam
- Amstrup-Hansen Louise
- Anagnou Athina
- Andersen Cheme
- Anderson Charlotte
- Anderson Colette
- Anderson Frank
- Anderson Philip
- Andreadaki Evangelia
- Andreou Alexandros
- Andreou Prematie
- Andrew Alyson
- Andrews Emma
- Angel Miguel Paludi
- Angermair Stefan
- Angus Kirsty
- Anillo Victor
- Anizi Mashel Al
- Antal Oana
- Antill Philip
- Antoniadou Eleni
- Apagaki Eymorfia
- Apostolou Konstantinos
- Applewhaite Christopher
- Applewhaite Christopher
- Aquino Laura Patricia González
- Ar Praburaj
- Araujo Daniela Marques
- Arawwawala Dilshan
- Ardern Diane
- Argue Ruth
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- Arkalaki Eleni
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- Asimakos Andreas
- Aslam M
- Asudo Felicia
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- Atiku Mamuda
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- Biais M.
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- Biccard Bruce
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- Cherrett Veronica
- Chetty Rubendraj R
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- Chew Michelle
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- Chilinciuc Ion
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- Choi Hyun-min David
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- Daya Bhavika
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- De Baerdemaeker Luc
- De Bruyne Ann
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- De Kegel Dirk
- De Meyer Jenine N
- De Oliveira Mirella Cristine
- Deacon Matthew
- Deblaere Isabel
- Dedemadi Georgia
- Deen Tariq
- Deepak Shantal
- Deighton Kerry
- Deja Maria
- Del Valle Santiago Garcia
- Delgado García David R
- Demartines Nicolas
- Dempsey Ged
- Dempster Angie
- Denham Samuel
- Dent Kathy
- Dermitzaki Despina
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- Dragoescu Nicoleta Alice
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- Du Fang
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- Duca Alejandro
- Dudgeon Lucy
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- Dunay Artem
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- Efthymiadi Andromachi
- Egan Thomas
- Eggleston Christopher
- Eichwalder Andreas
- Eikman Johan
- Ekelund Kim
- El-Sayed Ahmed
- Elabib Ali
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- Ellis Jessica
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- Fatungase Oluwabunmi Motunrayo
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- Filipescu Daniela
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- Finch Amanda
- Fiorentza Klara
- Fischbach Norbert
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- Fleischer Andreas
- Fleisher Lee
- Fleisher Lee
- Fleisher Lee A.
- Flores Armando Adolfo Alvarez
- Flores Kathrina
- Flossos Andreas
- Foers William
- Foglia Julena
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- Foley Julia
- Fonck Kristine
- Foord Denise
- Foot Helen
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- Foubert Luc
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- Fowler Alexander
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- Fulton Graham
- Funk Bonita
- Funk Duane
- Furrer Markus
- Futier E.
- Futier Emmanuel
- Futier Emmanuel
- Gaitanakis Stylianos
- Gall Lewis
- Gallacher Pete
- Gallard Sian
- Gallego Laura
- Gama N Sibusiso
- Gambhir Rajiv
- Ganter Donna Louise
- Ganter Michael T
- Gao Hong
- Garcia Carolina Soledad Romero
- Garcia Juliana
- Garcia-Saiz Irene
- García-Pérez Maria Luisa
- Gardikou Varvara Vanessa
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- Garg Atul
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- Gasperi Julia
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- Geddoa Burair
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- Geddoa Emad
- Geisen Martin
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- George Ronald
- George Ronald
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- Ghushe Neil
- Giancarlo Luigi
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- Gibson-Lapsley Hannah
- Giles Julian
- Gill James
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- Gille Jochen
- Gillespie David
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- Gkini Konstantia-Paraskevi
- Gkiokas Georgios
- Gkioni Panagiota
- Gkonezou Elena
- Glasbey James
- Glasgow Emma
- Glister Georgina
- Glover Lyn
- Goad Ehab Helmy Abdel
- Goebel Ulrich
- Goga Ismail E
- Goga Riaz
- Goldberg Olivia
- Golder Kim
- Gondo Prisca
- Gonzalez Alba Perez
- Gordon Paul
- Goss Harry
- Gouws Hanni
- Govender Komalan
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- Grace Anuforo
- Gracia Estefania
- Granum Simon Nørgaard
- Graterol Juan
- Gratrix Karen
- Graves Lynne
- Gray Carol
- Gray Catherine
- Gray Sophie
- Greaves K. E.
- Greaves Rosanna
- Green Garyth M
- Green-Thompson Randolph
- Greene Michael
- Gregory Peter
- Grey Ben
- Griffiths Ewen
- Grigoras Ioana
- Grigoryev Evgeny
- Grintescu Ioana
- Grishkowez Elena
- Grocott Mike
- Grosu Ramona-Mihaela
- Grubmueller Karl Gernot
- Gudaca Mariethel
- Guimarães Mario
- Guizeline Jaqueline
- Gunn Jacqueline
- Guo Baolei
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- Guok Eng Ching
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- Guttenthaler Vera
- Guy Kramer
- Gätke Mona Ring
- Habicher Marit
- Hack Yvonne
- Haddow J.
- Haddow James
- Hadebe Bernard
- Hadfield Daniel
- Hadi Husni Zaeem Abd
- Hagau Natalia
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- Hall Roger
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- Halliwell Richard
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- Hamilton Caroline
- Hamzah Zulkarnain
- Han Kunyuan
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- Handayani Dini
- Harden Catherine
- Hare Gregory
- Hariharan Vimal
- Harrichandparsad R
- Harries Rhiannon
- Harris Benjamin
- Harris Clair
- Harris James
- Harris Meredyth
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- Harrison Jonathan
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- Hartmann Cristina
- Haselberger Simone
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- Haunch Kirsty
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- Hedin Annika
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- Hellstrom Johanna
- Helmy Naeder
- Hennings Charles
- Hering Jens Peter
- Hernandez Carlos B
- Hernandez Miguel
- Hert Stefan
- Hesketh Sue
- Hewson Russ
- Hewson Russell
- Heyse Bjorn
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- Hidayatullah Rahmat
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- Higgie Kushlin
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- Hinther Ashley
- Hinther Ashley
- Hinxman Honor
- Hitchcock Rachael
- Hoare Siobhan
- Hobrok Maria
- Hodgkiss Tracey
- Hodgson Richard E
- Hodzovic Emil
- Hoedt Marielle
- Hoeft Andreas
- Hoeft Andreas
- Hofer Christoph
- Hofer Christoph
- Hoffer Franz
- Hoffmann João
- Holaubek Caroline
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- Hopkins Thomas
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- Hosdurga Gurunath
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- Hutchins David
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- Huynh Wilson Binh Quan
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- Härtl Christine
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- Hüppe Michael
- Iasonidou Christina
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- Ijuo Eke
- Iloabachie Ikechukwu
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- Indra Imai
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- Ionita Victor
- Iosep Gabriel Florin
- Ip Peter
- Irshad Mariam
- Ischaki Eleni
- Ishimaru Alexander
- Iurin Aleksandr
- Jacobs Tom
- Jaffray David
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- Jammer Ib
- Jansen Tracy-Lee
- Janssen Bruno
- Januszewska Marta
- Januszewska Marta
- Jaquet Yves
- Jardim Jaquelline
- Jawad Monir
- Jee Chiun Chen
- Jeeraz Mohammud A
- Jeffery Holly
- Jeffs Carol
- Jehosua Brillyan
- Jelschen Florian
- Jemmett Kim
- Jemna Ramona
- Jenkins Nia
- Jenkins Nicole
- Jensen-Gadegaard Peter
- Jesus Joana Sofia Teixeira
- Jeyanthan Somasundaram
- Ji Binbin
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- Jin Lin
- Jin Shenhui
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- Johnson Robert
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- Jones Dawn
- Jones Eleanor
- Jones Philip
- Jones Stephanie
- Jones Timothy
- Joory Kavita
- Jordaan J
- Joseph James
- Jowitt Tom
- Juj Joanne
- Julian Howes
- Jumbe Sandra
- Junge Marina
- Júnior La Hore Correa Rodrigues
- Kabagenyi Fiona
- Kafkalaki Kalliopi
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- Kakembo Nasser
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- Karthikeyan Arvind
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- Katime Antonio
- Katralis Petros
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- Katsika Eleni
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- Kaunang Jonathan
- Kaur Satwant
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- Kaushik Shuchi
- Keen Abigail
- Keenan Samantha
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- Khalaf Abdel Razzaq
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- Kirk-Bayley Justin
- Kirov Mikhail
- Kirov Mikhail
- Kirya Fred
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- Kituuka Olivia
- Klarin Bengt
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- Koompirochana Vilavan
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- Kottam Lucksy
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- Koutsikou Anastasia
- Kowalski Stephen
- Kozompoli Dimitra
- Krepil Adriana
- Kretov Vladimir
- Krishnachetty Bobby
- Kruse Carl-Heinz
- Krystopchuk Andriy
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- Zhao Weilu
- Zhao Xiaoying
- Zhen Jungang
- Zheng Kang
- Zheng Lina
- Zheng Tianzhao
- Zhong Yi
- Zhou Ce
- Zhou Dachun
- Zhou Haidong
- Zhou Haiyan
- Zhou Jiali
- Zhou Jialong
- Zhou Jing
- Zhou Xian-jin
- Zhu Xiaomao
- Zhu Yi
- Zhu Zhipeng
- Zhuang Xiuxiu
- Zilis Georgios
- Zin Nor Hafizah Mohd
- Zingerle Nicolette
- Zingg Urs
- Zoerner Frank
- Zonneveldt Harry
- Zou Xiaohua
- Zoulamoglou Menelaos
- Zsisku Lajos
- Zundert Tom
- Zyl Rebekka
- åkring Irene
- Ögren Katrin
- Publication venue
- 'Wiley'
- Publication date
- 22/10/2018
- Field of study
Background
The Clavien–Dindo classification is perhaps the most widely used approach for reporting postoperative complications in clinical trials. This system classifies complication severity by the treatment provided. However, it is unclear whether the Clavien–Dindo system can be used internationally in studies across differing healthcare systems in high- (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
Methods
This was a secondary analysis of the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), a prospective observational cohort study of elective surgery in adults. Data collection occurred over a 7-day period. Severity of complications was graded using Clavien–Dindo and the simpler ISOS grading (mild, moderate or severe, based on guided investigator judgement). Severity grading was compared using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Data are presented as frequencies and ICC values (with 95 per cent c.i.). The analysis was stratified by income status of the country, comparing HICs with LMICs.
Results
A total of 44 814 patients were recruited from 474 hospitals in 27 countries (19 HICs and 8 LMICs). Some 7508 patients (16·8 per cent) experienced at least one postoperative complication, equivalent to 11 664 complications in total. Using the ISOS classification, 5504 of 11 664 complications (47·2 per cent) were graded as mild, 4244 (36·4 per cent) as moderate and 1916 (16·4 per cent) as severe. Using Clavien–Dindo, 6781 of 11 664 complications (58·1 per cent) were graded as I or II, 1740 (14·9 per cent) as III, 2408 (20·6 per cent) as IV and 735 (6·3 per cent) as V. Agreement between classification systems was poor overall (ICC 0·41, 95 per cent c.i. 0·20 to 0·55), and in LMICs (ICC 0·23, 0·05 to 0·38) and HICs (ICC 0·46, 0·25 to 0·59).
Conclusion
Caution is recommended when using a treatment approach to grade complications in global surgery studies, as this may introduce bias unintentionally