Prediction of depression in European general practice attendees: the PREDICT study

Background Prevention of depression must address multiple risk factors. Estimating overall risk across a range of putative risk factors is fundamental to prevention of depression. However, we lack reliable and valid methods of risk estimation. This protocol paper introduces PREDICT, an international research study to address this risk estimation. Methods/design This is a prospective study in which consecutive general practice attendees in six European countries are recruited and followed up after six and 12 months. Prevalence of depression is assessed at baseline and each follow-up point. Consecutive attendees between April 2003 and September 2004 who were aged 18 to 75 were asked to take part. The possibility of a depressive episode was assessed using the Depression Section of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. A selection of presumed risk factors was based on our previous work and a systematic review of the literature. It was necessary to evaluate the test-retest reliability of a number of risk factor questions that were developed specifically, or adapted, for the PREDICT study. In a separate reliability study conducted between January and November 2003, consecutive general practice attendees in the six participating European countries completed the risk factor items on two occasions, two weeks apart. The overall response rate at entry to the study was 69%. We exceeded our expected recruitment rate, achieving a total of 10,048 people in all. Reliability coefficients were generally good to excellent. Discussion Response rate to follow-up in all countries was uniformly high, which suggests that prediction will be based on almost a full cohort. The results of our reliability analysis are encouraging and suggest that data collected during the course of PREDICT will have a satisfactory level of stability. The development of a multi-factor risk score for depression will lay the foundation for future research on risk reduction in primary care. Our data will also provide the necessary evidence base on which to develop and evaluate interventions to reduce the prevalence of depression

Family medicine in post-communist Europe needs a boost. Exploring the position of family medicine in healthcare systems of Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The countries of Central and Eastern Europe have experienced a lot of changes at the end of the 20th century, including changes in the health care systems and especially in primary care. The aim of this paper is to systematically assess the position of family medicine in these countries, using the same methodology within all the countries.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A key informants survey in 11 Central and Eastern European countries and Russia using a questionnaire developed on the basis of systematic literature review.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Formally, family medicine is accepted as a specialty in all the countries, although the levels of its implementation vary across the countries and the differences are important. In most countries, solo practice is the most predominant organisational form of family medicine. Family medicine is just one of many medical specialties (e.g. paediatrics and gynaecology) in primary health care. Full introduction of family medicine was successful only in Estonia.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Some of the unification of the systems may have been the result of the EU request for adequate training that has pushed the policies towards higher standards of training for family medicine. The initial enthusiasm of implementing family medicine has decreased because there was no initiative that would support this movement. Internal and external stimuli might be needed to continue transition process.</p

Building consensus about eHealth in Slovene primary health care: Delphi study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Slovenia's national eHealth strategy aims to develop an efficient, flexible and modern health care informatics framework that would be comparable to the most successful EU countries. To achieve this goal, the gap between availability and usage of information and communication technology by primary care physicians needs to be reduced.</p> <p>As recent efforts show, consensus on information and communication technology purpose and usage in primary care needs to be established before any national information and communication technology solutions are developed.</p> <p>The aim of this study was to identify the most appropriate measures in implementation of Slovene national eHealth strategy and to suggest an appropriate model for success by using the three round Delphi study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An e-mail based, three-round Delphi study was undertaken to achieve consensus from a selected sample of nationally recognized experts from the fields of primary health care and medical informatics. The aim of this study was to identify the most appropriate measures and key obstacles in implementation of eHealth in Slovene primary health care by using the Delphi study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>High levels of consensus on the majority of suggested measures were achieved among all study participants, as well as between the subgroups of experts from primary health care and medical informatics. All aims of the three-round Delphi study on eHealth implementation in Slovenian primary health care were achieved.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The three round decision Delphi process has proven to be effective for developing outcomes, ranking key priorities in primary care eHealth development, and achieving consensus among the most influential experts in that field. This consensus is an important contribution to future national eHealth strategies in the field of primary health care.</p

Suicidality in primary care patients who present with sadness and anhedonia: a prospective European study

Background: Sadness and anhedonia (loss of interest in activities) are central symptoms of major depression. However, not all people with these symptoms meet diagnostic criteria for major depression. We aimed to assess the importance of suicidality in the outcomes for primary care patients who present with sadness and anhedonia. Method: Cohort study of 2,599 unselected primary care attenders in six European countries followed up at 6 and 12 months. Results: 1) In patients with sadness and/or anhedonia who were not depressed at entry to the study, suicide plans (OR = 3.05; 95 % CI = 1.50–6.24; p = 0.0022) and suicide attempts (OR = 9.08; 95 % CI = 2.57–32.03; p = 0.0006) were significant predictors of developing new onset depression at 6 or 12 months. 2) In patients with sadness and/or anhedonia who met CIDI criteria for major depression at entry, suicidal ideation (OR = 2.93; 95 % CI = 1.70–5.07; p = 0.0001), suicide plans (OR = 3.70; 95 % CI = 2.08–6.57; p < 0.0001), and suicide attempts (OR = 3.33; 95 % CI = 1.47–7.54; p = 0.0040) were significant predictors of persistent depression at 6 or 12 months. Conclusions: Three questions on suicidality could help primary care professionals to assess such patients more closely without necessarily establishing whether they meet criteria for major depression.This research was funded by a grant from The European Commission, referencePREDICT-QL4-CT2002-00683. We are also grateful for part support in Europe from: the Estonian Scientific Foundation (grant number 5696); the Slovenian Ministry for Research (grant No.4369-1027); the Spanish Ministry of Health (grant FIS references: PI041980, PI041771, PI042450) and the Spanish Network of Primary Care Research, redIAPP (ISCIII-RETICS RD06/0018) and SAMSERAP group; and the UK NHS Research and Development office for providing service support costs in the UK. We are also grateful for the support from the University of Malaga (Spain) and to Carlos García from Loyola Andalucía University (Spain)

Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Prediction of Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in General Practice Attendees: The PredictAL Study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women.Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78).Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse

Predicting onset of major depression in general practice attendees in Europe: extending the application of the predictD risk algorithm from 12 to 24 months.

BACKGROUND: PredictD is a risk algorithm that was developed to predict risk of onset of major depression over 12 months in general practice attendees in Europe and validated in a similar population in Chile. It was the first risk algorithm to be developed in the field of mental disorders. Our objective was to extend predictD as an algorithm to detect people at risk of major depression over 24 months. Method Participants were 4190 adult attendees to general practices in the UK, Spain, Slovenia and Portugal, who were not depressed at baseline and were followed up for 24 months. The original predictD risk algorithm for onset of DSM-IV major depression had already been developed in data arising from the first 12 months of follow-up. In this analysis we fitted predictD to the longer period of follow-up, first by examining only the second year (12-24 months) and then the whole period of follow-up (0-24 months). RESULTS: The instrument performed well for prediction of major depression from 12 to 24 months [c-index 0.728, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.675-0.781], or over the whole 24 months (c-index 0.783, 95% CI 0.757-0.809). CONCLUSIONS: The predictD risk algorithm for major depression is accurate over 24 months, extending it current use of prediction over 12 months. This strengthens its use in prevention efforts in general medical settings