Social Dynamics of Digg

Online social media provide multiple ways to find interesting content. One important method is highlighting content recommended by user's friends. We examine this process on one such site, the news aggregator Digg. With a stochastic model of user behavior, we distinguish the effects of the content visibility and interestingness to users. We find a wide range of interest and distinguish stories primarily of interest to a users' friends from those of interest to the entire user community. We show how this model predicts a story's eventual popularity from users' early reactions to it, and estimate the prediction reliability. This modeling framework can help evaluate alternative design choices for displaying content on the site.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1010.023

Modeling and Predicting Popularity Dynamics via Reinforced Poisson Processes

An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a complex evolving system has important implications in an array of areas. Here we propose a generative probabilistic framework using a reinforced Poisson process to model explicitly the process through which individual items gain their popularity. This model distinguishes itself from existing models via its capability of modeling the arrival process of popularity and its remarkable power at predicting the popularity of individual items. It possesses the flexibility of applying Bayesian treatment to further improve the predictive power using a conjugate prior. Extensive experiments on a longitudinal citation dataset demonstrate that this model consistently outperforms existing popularity prediction methods.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure; 3 table

Real-Time Prediction of Gamers Behavior Using Variable Order Markov and Big Data Technology: A Case of Study

This paper presents the results and conclusions found when predicting the behavior of gamers in commercial videogames datasets. In particular, it uses Variable-Order Markov (VOM) to build a probabilistic model that is able to use the historic behavior of gamers and to infer what will be their next actions. Being able to predict with accuracy the next user’s actions can be of special interest to learn from the behavior of gamers, to make them more engaged and to reduce churn rate. In order to support a big volume and velocity of data, the system is built on top of the Hadoop ecosystem, using HBase for real-time processing; and the prediction tool is provided as a service (SaaS) and accessible through a RESTful API. The prediction system is evaluated using a case of study with two commercial videogames, attaining promising results with high prediction accuracies

Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events

There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks

Leveraging Sociological Models for Predictive Analytics

Abstract—There is considerable interest in developing techniques for predicting human behavior, for instance to enable emerging contentious situations to be forecast or the nature of ongoing but “hidden ” activities to be inferred. A promising approach to this problem is to identify and collect appropriate empirical data and then apply machine learning methods to these data to generate the predictions. This paper shows the performance of such learning algorithms often can be improved substantially by leveraging sociological models in their development and implementation. In particular, we demonstrate that sociologically-grounded learning algorithms outperform gold-standard methods in three important and challenging tasks: 1.) inferring the (unobserved) nature of relationships in adversarial social networks, 2.) predicting whether nascent social diffusion events will “go viral”, and 3.) anticipating and defending future actions of opponents in adversarial settings. Significantly, the new algorithms perform well even when there is limited data available for their training and execution. Keywords—predictive analysis, sociological models, social networks, empirical analysis, machine learning. I

Will they come and will they stay? Online Social Networks and news consumption on external websites

This study explores the role of online engagement, homophily and social influence in explaining traffic and news consumption by social network users at an external news website. The authors jointly model visits and page views for a panel of users who registered with the news site using their Facebook accounts. In their model, the authors account for homophily using a latent space approach, and account for endogeneity, heterogeneity, and unobservable correlates. The results show that measures of an individual’s activity on Facebook are positively associated with that individual’s actions at the news site. In addition, knowing what a user’s Facebook friends do at the content website provides insights into a focal user’s behavior at that website, as visitors with friends who visit external news sites are more likely to visit the news website studied. In addition, news consumption (not just visits) also depends on friend’s actions but such an impact varies with the individual’s underlying browsing mode. We highlight the importance of social influence in news consumption and further show that homophily bias in news consumption is similar to prior research in other categories. Our study also highlights that visitors’ past browsing patterns are important predictors of future content consumption, although social network information significantly improves prediction beyond the effect of such more traditional behavioral metrics. Finally, we find that Managers can use readily available data for both prediction and targeting

Characterizing Popularity Dynamics of User-generated Videos: A Category-based Study of YouTube

Understanding the growth pattern of content popularity has become a subject of immense interest to Internet service providers, content makers and on-line advertisers. This understanding is also important for the sustainable development of content distribution systems. As an approach to comprehend the characteristics of this growth pattern, a significant amount of research has been done in analyzing the popularity growth patterns of YouTube videos. Unfortunately, no work has been done that intensively investigates the popularity patterns of YouTube videos based on video object category. In this thesis, an in-depth analysis of the popularity pattern of YouTube videos is performed, considering the categories of videos. Metadata and request patterns were collected by employing category-specific YouTube crawlers. The request patterns were observed for a period of five months. Results confirm that the time varying popularity of di fferent YouTube categories are conspicuously diff erent, in spite of having sets of categories with very similar viewing patterns. In particular, News and Sports exhibit similar growth curves, as do Music and Film. While for some categories views at early ages can be used to predict future popularity, for some others predicting future popularity is a challenging task and require more sophisticated techniques, e.g., time-series clustering. The outcomes of these analyses are instrumental towards designing a reliable workload generator, which can be further used to evaluate diff erent caching policies for YouTube and similar sites. In this thesis, workload generators for four of the YouTube categories are developed. Performance of these workload generators suggest that a complete category-specific workload generator can be developed using time-series clustering. Patterns of users' interaction with YouTube videos are also analyzed from a dataset collected in a local network. This shows the possible ways of improving the performance of Peer-to-Peer video distribution technique along with a new video recommendation method