9,206 research outputs found
Parameter estimation on gravitational waves from multiple coalescing binaries
Future ground-based and space-borne interferometric gravitational-wave
detectors may capture between tens and thousands of binary coalescence events
per year. There is a significant and growing body of work on the estimation of
astrophysically relevant parameters, such as masses and spins, from the
gravitational-wave signature of a single event. This paper introduces a robust
Bayesian framework for combining the parameter estimates for multiple events
into a parameter distribution of the underlying event population. The framework
can be readily deployed as a rapid post-processing tool
Representation recovers information
Early agreement within cognitive science on the topic of representation has now given way to a combination of positions. Some question the significance of representation in cognition. Others continue to argue in favor, but the case has not been demonstrated in any formal way. The present paper sets out a framework in which the value of representation-use can be mathematically measured, albeit in a broadly sensory context rather than a specifically cognitive one. Key to the approach is the use of Bayesian networks for modeling the distal dimension of sensory processes. More relevant to cognitive science is the theoretical result obtained, which is that a certain type of representational architecture is *necessary* for achievement of sensory efficiency. While exhibiting few of the characteristics of traditional, symbolic encoding, this architecture corresponds quite closely to the forms of embedded representation now being explored in some embedded/embodied approaches. It becomes meaningful to view that type of representation-use as a form of information recovery. A formal basis then exists for viewing representation not so much as the substrate of reasoning and thought, but rather as a general medium for efficient, interpretive processing
Cardiac health risk stratification system (CHRiSS): A Bayesian-based decision support system for left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy
This study investigated the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy; a treatment for end-stage heart failure that has been steadily growing in popularity over the past decade. Despite this growth, the number of LVAD implants performed annually remains a small fraction of the estimated population of patients who might benefit from this treatment. We believe that this demonstrates a need for an accurate stratification tool that can help identify LVAD candidates at the most appropriate point in the course of their disease. We derived BNs to predict mortality at five endpoints utilizing the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) database: containing over 12,000 total enrolled patients from 153 hospital sites, collected since 2006 to the present day, and consisting of approximately 230 pre-implant clinical variables. Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was employed to address the uneven proportion of patients with negative outcomes and to improve the performance of the models. The resulting accuracy and area under the ROC curve (%) for predicted mortality were 30 day: 94.9 and 92.5; 90 day: 84.2 and 73.9; 6 month: 78.2 and 70.6; 1 year: 73.1 and 70.6; and 2 years: 71.4 and 70.8. To foster the translation of these models to clinical practice, they have been incorporated into a web-based application, the Cardiac Health Risk Stratification System (CHRiSS). As clinical experience with LVAD therapy continues to grow, and additional data is collected, we aim to continually update these BN models to improve their accuracy and maintain their relevance. Ongoing work also aims to extend the BN models to predict the risk of adverse events post-LVAD implant as additional factors for consideration in decision making
Lecture notes on ridge regression
The linear regression model cannot be fitted to high-dimensional data, as the
high-dimensionality brings about empirical non-identifiability. Penalized
regression overcomes this non-identifiability by augmentation of the loss
function by a penalty (i.e. a function of regression coefficients). The ridge
penalty is the sum of squared regression coefficients, giving rise to ridge
regression. Here many aspect of ridge regression are reviewed e.g. moments,
mean squared error, its equivalence to constrained estimation, and its relation
to Bayesian regression. Finally, its behaviour and use are illustrated in
simulation and on omics data. Subsequently, ridge regression is generalized to
allow for a more general penalty. The ridge penalization framework is then
translated to logistic regression and its properties are shown to carry over.
To contrast ridge penalized estimation, the final chapter introduces its lasso
counterpart
Probabilistic Programming Concepts
A multitude of different probabilistic programming languages exists today,
all extending a traditional programming language with primitives to support
modeling of complex, structured probability distributions. Each of these
languages employs its own probabilistic primitives, and comes with a particular
syntax, semantics and inference procedure. This makes it hard to understand the
underlying programming concepts and appreciate the differences between the
different languages. To obtain a better understanding of probabilistic
programming, we identify a number of core programming concepts underlying the
primitives used by various probabilistic languages, discuss the execution
mechanisms that they require and use these to position state-of-the-art
probabilistic languages and their implementation. While doing so, we focus on
probabilistic extensions of logic programming languages such as Prolog, which
have been developed since more than 20 years
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