Experiments on the Role of the Question Under Discussion for Ambiguity Resolution and Implicature Computation in Adults

From the Proceedings of SALT XVIII, 200

Modelling Fertility: A Semi-Parametric Approach

This article presents a categorical model of fertility based on the statistical theory of the Generalised Linear Model (GLM). Focussing on the individual probability of giving birth to a child, we derive distributions which can be embedded in a GLM framework. A major advance of that methodology is the knowledge of the distribution of the random variable, which leads to a Maximum Likelihood estimation procedure. The approach takes into account the smooth shapes of parameter development over the age of the mother as well as over time. The estimation of this semi-parametric approach is done using the Local-Likelihood-method. The presented method provides stable results of the fertility, especially for smaller populations. This is illustrated by using a data set which consists of less than 100,000 inhabitants. Dieser Aufsatz stellt ein kategorielles Modell der Geburtenhäufigkeit auf Basis der statistischen Theorie des Verallgemeinerten Linearen Modells (VLM) vor. Ausgehend von individuellen Gebär-Wahrscheinlichkeiten leiten wir Verteilungen ab, welche in einen VLM-Rahmen eingebettet werden können. Ein besonderer Vorteil dieser Methode ist das Wissen um die Verteilung der Zufallsvariablen, welches ein Maximum-Likelihood Schätzverfahren ermöglicht. Der Ansatz berücksichtigt den gleichmäßigen Verlauf der Parameter-Entwicklung über das Alter der Mutter und über die Zeit. Die Schätzung dieses semi-parametrischen Ansatzes erfolgt mit Hilfe der Local-Likelihood-Methode. Die vorgestellte Methode liefert solide Ergebnisse zur Geburtenhäufigkeit, insbesondere bei kleineren Bevölkerungszahlen. Dies wird anhand eines Datensatzes mit weniger als 100.000 Einwohnern gezeigt.Geburtenentwicklung ; Semiparametrische Schätzung ; Verallgemeinertes lineares Modell; ;

Spatial Unemployment Differentials in Colombia

This paper studies the geographic distribution of unemployment rates in Colombian urban areas. It introduces measures of spatial correlation and spatial econometric techniques to analyze the dependence in local unemployment rates across municipalities. Results suggest that Colombian municipalities have experienced a polarization process between 1993 and 2005, as municipalities' unemployment rates have followed different evolutions relative to the National average. This process has been accompanied by the creation of unemployment clusters, that is to say, municipalities had very similar unemployment outcomes to those of their neighbors. This analysis uses a spatial Durbin model to explore the influence of various factors in determining differences in regional unemployment rates. According to our findings differences in labor demand, immigration rates, and urbanization are factors behind observed municipal unemployment disparities.local labor markets, unemployment di erential, polarization, clustering, spatial econometrics, spatial Durbin model

Prospects of observing continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars

Several past searches for gravitational waves from a selection of known pulsars have been performed with data from the science runs of the Laser Inferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) gravitational wave detectors. So far these have lead to no detection, but upper limits on the gravitational wave amplitudes have been set. Here we study our intrinsic ability to detect, and estimate the gravitational wave amplitude for non-accreting pulsars. Using spin-down limits on emission as a guide we examine amplitudes that would be required to observe known pulsars with future detectors (Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and the Einstein Telescope), assuming that they are triaxial stars emitting at precisely twice the known rotation frequency. Maximum allowed amplitudes depend on the stars' equation of state (e.g. a normal neutron star, a quark star, a hybrid star) and the theoretical mass quadrupoles that they can sustain. We study what range of quadrupoles, and therefore equations of state, would be consistent with being able to detect these sources. For globular cluster pulsars, with spin-downs masked by accelerations within the cluster, we examine what spin-down values gravitational wave observations would be able to set. For all pulsars we also alternatively examine what internal magnetic fields they would need to sustain observable ellipticities.Comment: version to be published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Children's non-adultlike interpretations of telic predicates across languages

The acquisition literature has documented several different types of misinterpretations of telic sentences by children, yet a comprehensive analysis of these child interpretations has not been attempted and a crosslinguistic perspective is lacking. This task is not easy, for, on the surface, children's non-adultlike interpretations appear to be scattered and even contradictory across languages. Several cognitive biases have been proposed to explain given patterns (children initially adhere to a Manner bias, or alternatively a Result bias). Reviewing a wide range of studies on the acquisition of telic sentences in relation to tense-aspect markers, we show that children's non-adultlike interpretations fall into three different patterns. We conclude that the diversity of non-adultlike interpretations that is found across child languages is incompatible with accounts that rely on these cognitive, language-independent principles, but instead is triggered by language-specific properties. Analyzing these patterns in detail, it appears that child learners across languages have problems with tense-aspect forms with variable meanings, in contrast to forms with a one-to-one form/meaning mappings which are acquired earlier. While adults use a context-sensitive interpretation of forms with multiple meanings, various semantic-pragmatic sources can explain children's difficulties with interpreting such forms. All explanations that we identify across child languages rely on children's immature command of pragmatic reasoning, albeit in very different ways for the three different patterns. Thus, by taking a crosslinguistic semantic approach and integrating detailed insights from the tense-aspect semantics of specific languages with universal pragmatic effects, we explain the non-adultlike interpretation of telic sentences in a variety of child languages in a comprehensive way.F. Martin was supported by the project B5 of the SFB 732 financed by the DFG and hosted by the University of Stuttgart, and by DFG award AL 554/8-1 (Leibniz-Preis 2014) to Artemis Alexiadou. I. García del Real was supported by the project MINECO/FEDER (FFI2015-68589-C2-1-P)

Bayesian noise-reduction in Arabia/Somalia and Nubia/Arabia finite rotations since ~20 Ma: Implications for Nubia/Somalia relative motion

Knowledge of Nubia/Somalia relative motion since the Early Neogene is of particular importance in the Earth Sciences, because it (i) impacts on inferences on African dynamic topography; and (ii) allows us to link plate kinematics within the Indian realm with those within the Atlantic basin. The contemporary Nubia/Somalia motion is well known from geodetic observations. Precise estimates of the past-3.2-Myr average motion are also available from paleo-magnetic observations. However, little is known of the Nubia/Somalia motion prior to ∼3.2 Ma, chiefly because the Southwest Indian Ridge spread slowly, posing a challenge to precisely identify magnetic lineations. This also makes the few observations available particularly prone to noise. Here we reconstruct Nubia/Somalia relative motions since ∼20 Ma from the alternative plate-circuit Nubia-Arabia-Somalia. We resort to trans-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian Inference, which has proved effective in reducing finite-rotation noise, to unravel the Arabia/Somalia and Arabia/Nubia motions. We combine the resulting kinematics to reconstruct the Nubia/Somalia relative motion since ∼20 Ma. We verify the validity of the approach by comparing our reconstruction with the available record for the past ∼3.2 Myr, obtained through Antarctica. Results indicate that prior to ∼11 Ma the total motion between Nubia and Somalia was faster than today. Furthermore, it featured a significant strike-slip component along the Nubia/Somalia boundary. It is only since ∼11 Ma that Nubia diverges away from Somalia at slower rates, comparable to the present-day one. Kinematic changes of some 20% might have occurred in the period leading to the present-day, but plate-motion steadiness is also warranted within the uncertainties. Key Points Bayesian inference to reduce finite-rotation noise Reconstruction of Nubia/Somalia motion since ∼20 Ma Nubia/Somalia relative motion changed at ∼11 M

REDBACK: Open-source software for efficient noise-reduction in plate kinematic reconstructions

Knowledge of past plate motions derived from ocean-floor finite rotations is an important asset of the Earth Sciences, because it allows linking a variety of shallow-rooted and deep-rooted geological processes. Efforts have recently been taken toward inferring finite rotations at the unprecedented temporal resolution of 1 Myr or less, and more data are anticipated in the near future. These reconstructions, like any data set, feature a degree of noise that compromises significantly our ability to make geodynamical inferences. Bayesian Inference has been recently shown to be effective in reducing the impact of noise on plate kinematics inferred from high-temporal-resolution finite-rotation data sets. We describe REDBACK, an open-source software that implements transdimensional hierarchical Bayesian Inference for efficient noise-reduction in plate kinematic reconstructions. Algorithm details are described and illustrated by means of a synthetic test

Exposing Fake Logic

Exposing Fake Logic by Avi Sion is a collection of essays written after publication of his book A Fortiori Logic, in which he critically responds to derivative work by other authors who claim to know better. This is more than just polemics; but allows further clarifications of a fortiori logic and of general logic. This collection includes essays on: a fortiori argument (in general and in Judaism); Luis Duarte D’Almeida; Mahmoud Zeraatpishe; Michael Avraham (et al.); an anonymous reviewer of BDD (a Bar Ilan University journal); and self-publishing