Understanding Retail Productivity by Simulating Management Practise

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. In this paper we apply agent-based modeling and simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents could offer potential for fostering sustainable organizational capabilities in the future. Our research so far has led us to conduct case study work with a top ten UK retailer, collecting data in four departments in two stores. Based on our case study data we have built and tested a first version of a department store simulator. In this paper we will report on the current development of our simulator which includes new features concerning more realistic data on the pattern of footfall during the day and the week, a more differentiated view of customers, and the evolution of customers over time. This allows us to investigate more complex scenarios and to analyze the impact of various management practices

Improving the accessibility of modelling for management learning : a systems thinking approach using ithink

This thesis describes research aimed at increasing the accessibility of modelling to the general manager as a tool to promote organisational learning and improve managerial performance. An exploratory approach was adopted and a wide-ranging investigation of the whole process of modelling and its relevance to learning was carried out. A review of individual learning, organisational learning and modelling techniques in management, led to the identification of system thinking as a modelling methodology whose role in promoting learning warranted further research. Two major pieces of fieldwork were conducted. Firstly, the process of training managers in systems thinking was studied. Secondly, a case study of the adoption of systems thinking by a large manufacturing company was carried out. During the course of this work, a number of training case studies and a supply chain management training workshop, based upon the use of a generic supply chain model, were developed. This fieldwork identified model conceptualisation as a major area of difficulty for novice modellers. In order to provide assistance in this area, a new framework for model conceptualisation, based upon the use of archetypes and generic models, was developed. During the course of this work an exploration of the relationship between qualitative and quantitative modelling was carried out. This resulted in the development of simulation models of a number of the system archetypes. Additionally, a computerised Delphi-based knowledge acquisition tool was developed. The purpose of this tool was to allow a large group of geographically dispersed people to become directly involved in the modeffing process. In conclusion, this thesis has suggested that there are substantial benefits to be gained from encouraging managers to become modellers. It has also confirmed the potential of systems thinking to support modelling for learning

Measuring agri-food supply chain performance and risk through a new analytical framework: a case study of New Zealand dairy

Many researchers and practitioners have long recognized the significance of measuring performance. Although general guidelines for measuring business performance are widely available, no appropriate measurement frameworks have been developed for measuring agri-food supply chain performance. Particularly, food quality and risk-related indicators have not been well integrated into existing performance measurement systems. Our research, therefore, addresses this knowledge gap by first providing an in-depth review of extant performance measurement systems and frameworks. It then develops an analytical framework by extending the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model which has been extensively implemented across non-food industries. The analytical framework is further validated by utilizing a case study of 50 farmers and 10 dairy companies, operating in the New Zealand dairy industry. Our pilot testing and subsequent findings show that the individual metrics interlocked with the analytical framework are in-line with the key industrial practices adapted by the New Zealand dairy industry. In addition, the framework is flexible and scalable to evaluate and benchmark other agri-food supply chains–ranging from fresh products such as fruits and vegetables to processed foods such as canned fruits. The findings further show that the detailed information required for measuring the level-3 SCOR metrics is not easily available in the industry, as researchers need to access specific company records that may be confidential. Consequently, this study provides how agri-food supply chain managers can employ our new analytical framework in-conjunction with the SCOR model for a deeper understanding of the complicated performance measurement indicators applied in their agri-food production systems and relevant supply chains

Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic identification technologies, such as, radio frequency identification (RFID). The relationship of various parameters that may change and impact decisions are so abundant that any credible attempt to drive meaningful associations are in demand to deliver the value from acquired data. This paper proposes some modifications to adapt an advanced forecasting technique (GARCH) with the aim to develop it as a decision support tool applicable to a wide variety of operations including supply chain management. We have made an attempt to coalesce a few different ideas toward a “solutions” approach aimed to model volatility and in the process, perhaps, better manage risk. It is possible that industry, governments, corporations, businesses, security organizations, consulting firms and academics with deep knowledge in one or more fields, may spend the next few decades striving to synthesize one or more models of effective modus operandi to combine these ideas with other emerging concepts, tools, technologies and standards to collectively better understand, analyze and respond to uncertainty. However, the inclination to reject deep rooted ideas based on inconclusive results from pilot projects is a detrimental trend and begs to ask the question whether one can aspire to build an elephant using mouse as a model

Evaluation of the 2012/13 Farm Input Subsidy Programme, Malawi: Final Report

This report evaluates the 2012/13 Malawi Government Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP). The main objective of the evaluation is to assess the impact and implementation of the FISP in order to provide information regarding • the overall value for money of investments in the FISP as regards its contributions to agricultural production, food security, farmers’ and consumers’ welfare • means by which future implementation of the FISP might be changed in order to improve its effectiveness and efficiency We consider in turn the two main questions that the report addresses, beginning with the overall contributions and value for money from the FISP. The FISP medium term plans sets out the objectives of the FISP as being to ‘increase food security at household level through agricultural output growth’ by increasing agricultural productivity and input market development. However economic theory and experience from other countries suggests that if implemented consistently, effectively and efficiently at a manageable cost the programme has the potential to drive broad based national economic growth and diversification by raising the productivity of the agricultural land and labour held by the large rural population, lowering food prices, raising real wages, and stimulating non-agricultural demand and supply. This depends upon the ability of the programme to cost effectively increase seed and fertiliser input use in maize production, drive up maize productivity and improve input supply services (the direct impacts of the programme) with the support of complementary policies that support low maize prices, rising real wages and rural diversification (the indirect impacts of the programme). Increases in production and maize productivity as a result of the programme are difficult to assess. Bringing together evidence from a wide range of sources, section 7 of the report suggests that the programme led to increased production of around 723,000MT of maize and 32,000MT of legumes. Malawi’s rapidly growing population means that the programme’s incremental production benefits are increasingly important for Malawi’s national food security. These benefits are however undermined by likely informal exports (despite an export ban) encouraged by pressures from the relatively low dollar denominated maize prices in Malawi following the major devaluation of the Kwacha. The programme also led to increased profitability of maize production by beneficiary households and increased rural incomes by between MK50,000 and MK70,000per household receiving and using a full pack of fertiliser and maize seed (ignoring spillover effects and benefits from receipt of fertiliser that does not contribute to incremental production).For many poorer beneficiaries, who receive only one coupon for 50 kg of fertiliser, it seems that benefits are only sufficient to reduce their food insecurity, and are not enough to enable them to advance their livelihoods – to ‘step out’ or ‘step up’ rather than just ‘hang in’. Addressing this in the context of both limited fiscal resources and rapidly growing population pressure is a major challenge facing the programme and the Government and country as a whole. There is, however, evidence that the FISP is encouraging some diversification out of maize into increased legume production. Assessment of the potential wider indirect impacts of the programme (addressed in section 8) requires comparison of situations with and without the subsidy. A Local Economy Wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model, a novel form of CGE modelling, investigating this suggests that there are significant spillover local growth effects from the subsidy as a result of both its injection of cash into the economy and of the increase in real incomes caused by its raising land and labour productivity. However real wage rates fell during 2012/13 as a result of rising maize prices, which, as mentioned above, have been affected by the devaluation of the Malawi Kwacha and consequent export and inflationary pressures. It is not possible to estimate possible effects of FISP in reducing the extent of the fall in wages. These wider influences on maize prices pose a major challenge to the welfare of poor Malawians and to the Malawian economy, with or without the FISP. Policies that address this and promote low and stable domestic maize prices are essential for FISP to deliver improved food security and the wider growth benefits outlined above – and some specific options are suggested. The overall benefit cost ratio (BCR) for the FISP is estimated at 1.7taking account of only direct impacts, and at1.8if wider indirect impacts are also included. Fiscal efficiency (the ratio of net economic benefits to government expenditure) is estimated at 0.75for direct impacts and 1.04 including indirect impacts. Analysis of national food security scenarios with and without the FISP suggests that in the last 6 years it may have led to average annual savings of maize imports of some 385,000MT, directly offsetting up to between 85 and 110% of programme costs. Benefit cost ratio estimates are however sensitive to some of the parameters used in their calculation, notably maize prices, incremental maize productivity, and fertiliser costs. The Fiscal Efficiency of the programme and its overall cost are also affected by likely high rates of input leakage and of displacement of unsubsidised farmer purchases by subsidised inputs, and by the subsidy rate and low farmer contributions. The importance of low and stable maize prices for programme benefits has been discussed above. More attention to these issues in the implementation of the programme could lead to substantial increases in the effectiveness and efficiency of the programme with increased benefits and/or reduced costs. Analysis of determinants of maize productivity shows that yields are generally increased by early planting, early and good weeding, use of hybrid seed, use of inorganic nitrogenous fertiliser and of phosphate where soils are phosphate deficient, and use of organic fertilisers. Returns to use of inorganic fertiliser are also increased by use of hybrid seed, use of organic fertiliser, and higher plant density. Gains from using subsidised inorganic fertiliser and hybrid seed may also be substantially reduced if use of subsidised inputs leads to delays in planting. These observations, which are widely known, underpin many aspects of the design and implementation of the FISP, for example the increasing provision of hybrid and legume seeds in the subsidy package, the intention to provide coupons and inputs early in the season (with priority given to the south, then centre then north), and the inclusion of both nitrogenous and compound fertilisers. Analysis of the implementation of the programme in section 4 and of the timing of receipt of coupons by households in section 6 shows that a number of reasons (some of them beyond the immediate control of programme management) have led to late access to coupons and inputs – and this tends to raise costs and increase displacement as well as reduce yields. Incremental production is also affected by displacement rates and by leakages of inputs through theft and corruption. Programme costs have been held in check from 2009/10 with much better physical control of quantities of subsidised fertilisers. As noted in section 4, there are opportunities for reducing fertiliser procurement costs (and improving timeliness of delivery) through modified tender and payment procedures. Programme costs could also be reduced by increasing farmer contributions as a proportion of input costs, and there is a difficult balance here between on the one hand supporting those who can least afford inputs and benefit most from a high rate of subsidy, and on the other hand reducing overall programme costs. A third way of reducing programme costs and/or increasing benefits is to reduce displacement and leakage, with improved security of coupons (where there has been substantial improvements in 2011/12 and 2012/13); better transport tendering and monitoring procedures (the latter building on approaches trialled with ESOKO in 2012/13); more timely input delivery, market opening and coupon distribution; and better targeting of inputs to poorer farmers unable to afford unsubsidised inputs. Increased farmer contributions may also decrease the incentives for theft, corruption and leakage. Determination of more precise numbers of farm families and (building on useful innovations in 2012/13) greater farmer access to and understanding of publicly available beneficiary lists could also improve targeting outcomes and accountability and control of coupons. Greater use of use of such systems will, however, have to take account of the support for and benefits from the widespread ‘sharing’ of coupons in the Central and Southern Regions. Increasing attention to matters of accountability, access to coupons, and conditions at markets are to be welcomed and will no doubt be built on as more information becomes available on their strengths and weaknesses. Despite its high cost, the FISP is making a positive set of contributions to the welfare of Malawians, and this represents a considerable achievement by all those involved in its resourcing, design and implementation in challenging conditions. These contributions are however threatened by macroeconomic pressures; by high and increasing population pressure in rural areas; by the high visibility of instances of late implementation, corruption and theft; by evidence of poor targeting; and by political and economic pressures. These contributions and these pressures call for renewed efforts to both work for and demonstrate improved efficiency and effectiveness and increased benefits and probity of the programme. In order to facilitate wider and better informed debate around the FISP, this report will be supplemented by two short policy briefing papers summarising key issues raised regarding FISP implementation and impacts. The value of this report is, however, that it brings together in one place a comprehensive review of the programme. Readers are advised to refer to those sections that are of direct interest and not be put off by the size of the report as a whole. The ‘summary and conclusions’ section at the end of the report contains a longer and more detailed summary of the report

Machine learning and mixed reality for smart aviation: applications and challenges

The aviation industry is a dynamic and ever-evolving sector. As technology advances and becomes more sophisticated, the aviation industry must keep up with the changing trends. While some airlines have made investments in machine learning and mixed reality technologies, the vast majority of regional airlines continue to rely on inefficient strategies and lack digital applications. This paper investigates the state-of-the-art applications that integrate machine learning and mixed reality into the aviation industry. Smart aerospace engineering design, manufacturing, testing, and services are being explored to increase operator productivity. Autonomous systems, self-service systems, and data visualization systems are being researched to enhance passenger experience. This paper investigate safety, environmental, technological, cost, security, capacity, and regulatory challenges of smart aviation, as well as potential solutions to ensure future quality, reliability, and efficiency

The pertinence and opportunities of including design thinking in Healthcare courses

Aceitando a natureza complexa da Saúde e dos problemas que lhe estão associados, propomos a utilização de ferramentas de design centrado na pessoa, nomeadamente o Design Thinking, por forma a gerar soluções inovadoras que possam responder a esses mesmos problemas. O presente trabalho demonstra a pertinência da inclusão do Design Thinking em cursos de saúde, evidenciando a complementaridade que o método pode oferecer a uma necessária perspectiva sistémica, bem como ao essencial alargar da abrangência curricular dos mesmos cursos. Os atuais exemplos de integração de Design Thinking em projetos ligados ao sector, os profissionais consultados e a análise realizada a diversos planos curriculares relevam essa pertinência, bem como as oportunidades para que se verifique de facto. A nossa análise quantitativa não mostrou qualquer diferença estatisticamente significativa entre profissionais de saúde e alunos de design em termos de Empatia, Criatividade ou outras características consideradas essenciais ao processo e, como tal, confirma a aptidão dos primeiros para participar nesses mesmos projetos, verificado o necessário treino.Acknowledging the complex nature of health and health-related problems, we propose borrowing human-centred design tools, namely Design Thinking to generate new innovative solutions to tackle them. The present work demonstrates the pertinence of including Design Thinking in healthcare courses, highlighting the method’s complementarity to a systemic perspective of reasoning, and its usefulness when answering to the claimed necessity of those courses to broad their scope and focus. Present examples of integration of Design Thinking in health projects; the experts consulted and the analysis of current curricular plans emphasise this pertinence and at the same unveil several opportunities to do so. Our quantitative approach showed no significant difference between healthcare professionals and design students in terms of Empathy, Creativity and other traits considered essential to the process and, thus, confirming the first’s aptitude to participate in such projects given the proper coaching

Work Experiences of Nurses with Self-Identified Disabilities

Globally and in Canada, meaningful participation of disabled people in the labour market is a relatively new occurrence. While the literature about disabled people's experiences and perceptions related to employment is established, very little is known about disabled nurses' work experiences. The aim of this study was to produce a rich descriptive account of the practise experiences of disabled registered nurses (RNs) from their perspectives. The research aim was addressed through a qualitative descriptive study that explored the perspectives and experiences of study participants. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 female RNs residing and working in the province of Ontario. Data was analyzed using conventional content analysis and presented as textual summaries organized under categories. The study found that participants' experiences of practising with a disability were a mix of positive and negative aspects strongly influenced by factors relating to workplace milieu such as interactions with others in the work environment. Participants identified a greater number of facilitators to practising with a disability than barriers; however, the barriers identified corresponded with actual or desired facilitators. The findings of this study contribute meaningfully to knowledge on the topic of disabled nurses' work experiences by confirming the findings of previous studies and addressing the scarcity of detailed accounts on the topic. Additionally, the study lends support to a more universal understanding of nurses' work experiences that is not US-centric. The findings signal that the organizations and institutions that employ disabled nurses need to be more responsive to their situations and address barriers impeding their success. In the context of education, the findings encourage self-reflection and actions that will support the success of disabled students and inculcate positive attitudes and behaviours towards disabled nurses. Lastly, the findings highlight several areas where further research could be undertaken to inform policy, educational curricula, and attitudes and behaviours related to disabled nurses

Theory of real estate valuation

It can be stated that where a valuation is used as an assessment of risk there is no research-backed theory of valuation, that is one that explains the methodology used and is validated by a hypothesis. The significance of this thesis is the recognition of the ignorance, and confusion that exists and the need of a theory to explain methodology verified by a hypothesis or hypotheses. This thesis is the result of systemic research in an attempt to define the confusion that exists, resulting from the application of inappropriate economic theories in valuation. This research also attempts to find the reason for and the source of the confusion. This research supports that which has previously been advocated that valuation principles of valuation Practice must be underpinned by a working theory embedded in positive economics. The finding of this paper is that price theory is an appropriate proxy for valuation theory where a valuation is used as an assessment of the recovery of funds. However importantly this research also recognises and examines the possible ability of other related economic theories to explain areas price behaviour where price theory cannot. The findings of this research are likely to have important implications in the valuation profession. Hopefully this will result in stimulating debate and a realisation of a need for a theory which supports a credible and validated process of valuation