Tracing the temporal evolution of clusters in a financial stock market

We propose a methodology for clustering financial time series of stocks' returns, and a graphical set-up to quantify and visualise the evolution of these clusters through time. The proposed graphical representation allows for the application of well known algorithms for solving classical combinatorial graph problems, which can be interpreted as problems relevant to portfolio design and investment strategies. We illustrate this graph representation of the evolution of clusters in time and its use on real data from the Madrid Stock Exchange market.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures (submitted for publication

Critical Market Crashes

This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are ``outliers'': they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are ``outliers'', they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets, on currency markets, on company stocks, and so on. The concept of an ``anti-bubble'' is also summarized, with two forward predictions on the Japanese stock market starting in 1999 and on the USA stock market still running. We conclude by presenting our view of the organization of financial markets.Comment: Latex 89 pages and 38 figures, in press in Physics Report

Doing evolution in economic geography

Evolutionary approaches in economic geography face questions about the relationships between their concepts, theories, methods, politics, and policy implications. Amidst the growing but unsettled consensus that evolutionary approaches should employ plural methodologies, the aims here are, first, to identify some of the difficult issues confronting those working with different frameworks. The concerns comprise specifying and connecting research objects, subjects, and levels; handling agency and context; engaging and integrating the quantitative and the qualitative; comparing cases; and, considering politics, policy, and praxis. Second, the purpose is to articulate a distinctive geographical political economy approach, methods, and illustrative examples in addressing these issues. Bringing different views of evolution in economic geography into dialogue and disagreement renders methodological pluralism a means toward improved understanding and explanation rather than an end in itself. Confronting such thorny matters needs to be embedded in our research practices and supported by greater openness; more and better substantiation of our conceptual, theoretical, and empirical claims; enhanced critical reflection; and deeper engagement with politics, policy, and praxis

Data Analytics for Crisis Management: A Case Study of Sharing Economy Services in the COVID-19 Pandemic

This dissertation study aims to analyze the role of data-driven decision-making in sharing economy during the COVID-19 pandemic as a crisis management tool. In the twenty-first century, when applying analytical tools has become an essential component of business decision-making, including operations on crisis management, data analytics is an emerging field. To carry out corporate strategies, data-driven decision-making is seen as a crucial component of business operations. Data analytics can be applied to benefit-cost evaluations, strategy planning, client engagement, and service quality. Data forecasting can also be used to keep an eye on business operations and foresee potential risks. Risk Management and planning are essential for allocating the necessary resources with minimal cost and time and to be ready for a crisis. Hidden market trends and customer preferences can help companies make knowledgeable business decisions during crises and recessions. Each company should manage operations and response during emergencies, a path to recovery, and prepare for future similar events with appropriate data management tools. Sharing economy is part of social commerce, that brings together individuals who have underused assets and who want to rent those assets short-term. COVID-19 has emphasized the need for digital transformation. Since the pandemic began, the sharing economy has been facing challenges, while market demand dropped significantly. Shelter-in-Place and Stay-at-Home orders changed the way of offering such sharing services. Stricter safety procedures and the need for a strong balance sheet are the key take points to surviving during this difficult health crisis. Predictive analytics and peer-reviewed articles are used to assess the pandemic\u27s effects. The approaches chosen to assess the research objectives and the research questions are the predictive financial performance of Uber & Airbnb, bibliographic coupling, and keyword occurrence analyses of peer-reviewed works about the influence of data analytics on the sharing economy. The VOSViewer Bibliometric software program is utilized for computing bibliometric analysis, RapidMiner Predictive Data Analytics for computing data analytics, and LucidChart for visualizing data

Long Run Relationships Between City Office Rents and The Economy In The UK – Creating a Database for Research

This paper sets out progress during the first eighteen months of doctoral research into the City of London office market. The overall aim of the research is to explore relationships between office rents and the economy in the UK over the last 150 years. To do this, a database of lettings has been created from which a long run index of City office rents can be constructed. With this index, it should then be possible to analyse trends in rents and relationships with their long run determinants. The focus of this paper is on the creation of the rent database. First, it considers the existing secondary sources of long run rental data for the UK. This highlights a lack of information for years prior to 1970 and the need for primary data collection if earlier periods are to be studied. The paper then discusses the selection of the City of London and of the time period chosen for research. After this, it describes how a dataset covering the period 1860-1960 has been assembled using the records of property companies active in the City office market. It is hoped that, if successful, this research will contribute to existing knowledge on the long run characteristics of commercial real estate. In particular, it should add a price dimension (rents) to the existing long run information on stock/supply and investment. Hence, it should enable a more complete picture of the development and performance of commercial real estate through time to be gained.office rent, City of London, property market history

DATA ANALYTICS FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT: A CASE STUDY OF SHARING ECONOMY SERVICES IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

This dissertation study aims to analyze the role of data-driven decision-making in sharing economy during the COVID-19 pandemic as a crisis management tool. In the twenty-first century, when applying analytical tools has become an essential component of business decision-making, including operations on crisis management, data analytics is an emerging field. To carry out corporate strategies, data-driven decision-making is seen as a crucial component of business operations. Data analytics can be applied to benefit-cost evaluations, strategy planning, client engagement, and service quality. Data forecasting can also be used to keep an eye on business operations and foresee potential risks. Risk Management and planning are essential for allocating the necessary resources with minimal cost and time and to be ready for a crisis. Hidden market trends and customer preferences can help companies make knowledgeable business decisions during crises and recessions. Each company should manage operations and response during emergencies, a path to recovery, and prepare for future similar events with appropriate data management tools. Sharing economy is part of social commerce, that brings together individuals who have underused assets and who want to rent those assets short-term. COVID-19 has emphasized the need for digital transformation. Since the pandemic began, the sharing economy has been facing challenges, while market demand dropped significantly. Shelter-in-Place and Stay-at-Home orders changed the way of offering such sharing services. Stricter safety procedures and the need for a strong balance sheet are the key take points to surviving during this difficult health crisis. Predictive analytics and peer-reviewed articles are used to assess the pandemic\u27s effects. The approaches chosen to assess the research objectives and the research questions are the predictive financial performance of Uber & Airbnb, bibliographic coupling, and keyword occurrence analyses of peer-reviewed works about the influence of data analytics on the sharing economy. The VOSViewer Bibliometric software program is utilized for computing bibliometric analysis, RapidMiner Predictive Data Analytics for computing data analytics, and LucidChart for visualizing data