Can Increased Trade Prevent Conflict with China?

In the early 1990s, the United States began to run a significant trade deficit with China due to the dual forces of greater trade liberalization and China’s transition from a command economy towards a market economy. Proponents of free trade with China argue that greater integration will lead to a convergence of interests that reaches beyond economics. Despite growing economic and cultural ties with China, the U.S. still maintains military assets to defend Taiwan. Large scale conflicts on the order of cold war expectations are unlikely due to the growing importance of multinational entities such as international institutions, corporations, and nonprofits. This means that developed nations must contend with world opinion or forego the assistance of these groups in pursuing national interests. Situations such as Taiwan could limit economic integration and potentially introduce long term political risk with an impact on the U.S. economy similar to the Middle East effect on oil price. While the Chinese government presents itself as a monolithic entity to foreigners, the ability of the central government to enforce policy differs greatly throughout the country. The potential for political instability will likely increase as China becomes more integrated with the rest of the world. Western nations have already experienced the challenges of applying World Trade Organization regulations on market driven economies. The effects will be even more difficult to manage in China’s hybrid economy. The Chinese government’s primary concern is to govern the entire nation with diverse cultures, languages, and economic interests despite a lack of infrastructure and strong institutional development. To do this without some form of participatory government requires a population which is not critical of government policies. This is achieved through the promise of economic growth. The first section of the paper will review the current literature on financial integration and trade liberalization. Many analysts have commented on China’s increasing foreign reserves. The US trade deficit with China is primarily financed through the sale of US treasury bonds and the Chinese central bank is one of the largest buyers of these securities. A substantial decrease in the demand for these securities could lead to a dramatic increase in the US interest rate. While China may not reduce the amount of Dollars purchased, the use of these reserves is also controversial. China’s accumulation of Dollars has been used to secure resources in Africa and oil in the Middle East. While China’s leaders may be inclined to keep large currency reserves to support future exchange rate policy, there remains an increasing amount of Dollars which cannot be spent. This Dollar surplus is a potential threat to world economic stability. The second section will describe the current trade relationship and the challenges ahead. In addition to the trade deficit and the exchange rate, the U.S. has recently imposed countervailing tariffs on glossy paper products to offset subsidies provided by the Chinese government. The terms of China’s accession to the WTO have been difficult to implement due to both caution on the part of the Chinese government and the ability of the government to enforce policy. Over the past several months, the U.S. has adopted a tougher stance on Chinese trade conflicts largely as a response of the Bush administration to a democratic congress rather than a change in American trade policy. Previous incidents have introduced temporary volatility into American financial markets, but could China introduce sustained volatility? If so, what would be the long term impact of sustained market volatility to the U.S. economy? The third section will explain the degree to which the U.S.-China trade relationship can introduce volatility in the U.S. markets and explain its long term effects. The U.S. attracts large amounts of foreign portfolio investment based on the relatively low risk and efficiency of American markets. A lack of capital controls combined with America’s dependence on foreign capital could cause a significant decrease in investment if the market were perceived to be too risky when compared to the rate of return. While capital flight on the scale of the Asian financial crisis is unlikely, any substantial loss of foreign investment could significantly impact American economic growth. The long term impact of a sustained current account deficit must be considered in terms of the valuation and portfolio balance effects. The relationship between the current account, exchange rate, and the national debt will be examined in order to determine the amount of a sustainable current account deficit. The conclusion will place the U.S.-China trade deficit in perspective with a brief description of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s relationship with the U.S. This section will also describe the U.S. policies necessary to prepare for a stronger Chinese economy with a floating exchange rate

Summary of the First Workshop on Sustainable Software for Science: Practice and Experiences (WSSSPE1)

Challenges related to development, deployment, and maintenance of reusable software for science are becoming a growing concern. Many scientists’ research increasingly depends on the quality and availability of software upon which their works are built. To highlight some of these issues and share experiences, the First Workshop on Sustainable Software for Science: Practice and Experiences (WSSSPE1) was held in November 2013 in conjunction with the SC13 Conference. The workshop featured keynote presentations and a large number (54) of solicited extended abstracts that were grouped into three themes and presented via panels. A set of collaborative notes of the presentations and discussion was taken during the workshop. Unique perspectives were captured about issues such as comprehensive documentation, development and deployment practices, software licenses and career paths for developers. Attribution systems that account for evidence of software contribution and impact were also discussed. These include mechanisms such as Digital Object Identifiers, publication of “software papers”, and the use of online systems, for example source code repositories like GitHub. This paper summarizes the issues and shared experiences that were discussed, including cross-cutting issues and use cases. It joins a nascent literature seeking to understand what drives software work in science, and how it is impacted by the reward systems of science. These incentives can determine the extent to which developers are motivated to build software for the long-term, for the use of others, and whether to work collaboratively or separately. It also explores community building, leadership, and dynamics in relation to successful scientific software

Exploring the evidence base for national and regional policy interventions to combat resistance

The effectiveness of existing policies to control antimicrobial resistance is not yet fully understood. A strengthened evidence base is needed to inform effective policy interventions across countries with different income levels and the human health and animal sectors. We examine three policy domains—responsible use, surveillance, and infection prevention and control—and consider which will be the most effective at national and regional levels. Many complexities exist in the implementation of such policies across sectors and in varying political and regulatory environments. Therefore, we make recommendations for policy action, calling for comprehensive policy assessments, using standardised frameworks, of cost-effectiveness and generalisability. Such assessments are especially important in low-income and middle-income countries, and in the animal and environmental sectors. We also advocate a One Health approach that will enable the development of sensitive policies, accommodating the needs of each sector involved, and addressing concerns of specific countries and regions

Trade integration as a way forward for the Arab world : a regional agenda

The current political turmoil for more open and participative societies in many Arab countries coupled with the emergence of new growth poles around the world could create the conditions for a big push toward greater regional and global trade integration of the Arab world. Further integrating Arab countries among themselves and opening up the region to the rest of the world are two complementary avenues to improve market access, promote behind-the-border regulatory reforms, facilitate cooperation on regional public goods, foster the emergence of an"Arab factory"through regional supply chains and productions networks, and eventually create the conditions for more and better paid jobs for the growing Arab workforce. A more ambitious trade agenda in the context of the Pan-Arab Free Trade Area would be a good place to start. Although difficult and challenging, and requiring a good dosage of flexibility and variable geometry, such an agenda would consist of (1) completing the free movement of goods within the Pan-Arab Free Trade Area, notably through the elimination of unnecessary non-tariff barriers; (2) implementing a regional initiative to liberalize services trade, including identifying a number of pilot service sectors for early regional liberalization; and (3) strengthening the rules and discipline applicable to regional trade and other policies of common interest.Free Trade,Trade Law,Emerging Markets,Trade and Regional Integration,Trade Policy

Green IT Model for Gulf Cooperation Council Organisations

This research aims to develop a Green IT model that suits the needs of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. A mix-methods approach that combines interviews with a survey was implemented to assess the model critically. The initial model developed for evaluating various Green models to assess the Governance, Social and Cultural, Information Technology and Green Management in GCC. The Green IT model aims to raise sustainability awareness in GCC countries based on their visions

Sustainability ranking of desalination plants using Mamdani Fuzzy Logic Inference Systems

As water desalination continues to expand globally, desalination plants are continually under pressure to meet the requirements of sustainable development. However, the majority of desalination sustainability research has focused on new desalination projects, with limited research on sustainability performance of existing desalination plants. This is particularly important while considering countries with limited resources for freshwater such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as it is heavily reliant on existing desalination infrastructure. In this regard, the current research deals with the sustainability analysis of desalination processes using a generic sustainability ranking framework based on Mamdani Fuzzy Logic Inference Systems. The fuzzy-based models were validated using data from two typical desalination plants in the UAE. The promising results obtained from the fuzzy ranking framework suggest this more in-depth sustainability analysis should be beneficial due to its flexibility and adaptability in meeting the requirements of desalination sustainability

The Impact of GDP, FDI, and Import on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in of GCC Countries: A Panel Data Approach

The GCC countries’ unified economic agreement which has been signed on 1981 and activated in 2002 aimed for easing free trade and attract more FDI to enhance the level of economic growth. This agreement has also emphasized on reducing levels of pollution and achieving a sustainable economic growth. In reality, there is an increase in the level of emissions along with the level of rising of economic growth in GCC countries. Accordingly, in this study we will test the most significant variables pertaining to the increasing carbon dioxide emissions in GCC countries. The research objective is to determine how much the FDI inflows, economic growth, and commodity imports influenced the increasing level of emissions, and which variable has most effect? For this purpose, an empirical model is specified as a function of FDI inflows, per capita GDP growth rate, and commodity imports. However, we have built this model based on Environmental Kuznets Curve assumption (EKC), as well as Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH). It will be examined simultaneously a 66 balanced observation of the six GCC countries within the panel data technique using cross-section random effects