Advanced flight control system study

A fly by wire flight control system architecture designed for high reliability includes spare sensor and computer elements to permit safe dispatch with failed elements, thereby reducing unscheduled maintenance. A methodology capable of demonstrating that the architecture does achieve the predicted performance characteristics consists of a hierarchy of activities ranging from analytical calculations of system reliability and formal methods of software verification to iron bird testing followed by flight evaluation. Interfacing this architecture to the Lockheed S-3A aircraft for flight test is discussed. This testbed vehicle can be expanded to support flight experiments in advanced aerodynamics, electromechanical actuators, secondary power systems, flight management, new displays, and air traffic control concepts

A Survey on Trust Metrics for Autonomous Robotic Systems

This paper surveys the area of Trust Metrics related to security for autonomous robotic systems. As the robotics industry undergoes a transformation from programmed, task oriented, systems to Artificial Intelligence-enabled learning, these autonomous systems become vulnerable to several security risks, making a security assessment of these systems of critical importance. Therefore, our focus is on a holistic approach for assessing system trust which requires incorporating system, hardware, software, cognitive robustness, and supplier level trust metrics into a unified model of trust. We set out to determine if there were already trust metrics that defined such a holistic system approach. While there are extensive writings related to various aspects of robotic systems such as, risk management, safety, security assurance and so on, each source only covered subsets of an overall system and did not consistently incorporate the relevant costs in their metrics. This paper attempts to put this prior work into perspective, and to show how it might be extended to develop useful system-level trust metrics for evaluating complex robotic (and other) systems

Fault Tree Analysis: a survey of the state-of-the-art in modeling, analysis and tools

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a very prominent method to analyze the risks related to safety and economically critical assets, like power plants, airplanes, data centers and web shops. FTA methods comprise of a wide variety of modelling and analysis techniques, supported by a wide range of software tools. This paper surveys over 150 papers on fault tree analysis, providing an in-depth overview of the state-of-the-art in FTA. Concretely, we review standard fault trees, as well as extensions such as dynamic FT, repairable FT, and extended FT. For these models, we review both qualitative analysis methods, like cut sets and common cause failures, and quantitative techniques, including a wide variety of stochastic methods to compute failure probabilities. Numerous examples illustrate the various approaches, and tables present a quick overview of results

Safety system design optimisation

This thesis investigates the efficiency of a design optimisation scheme that is appropriate for systems which require a high likelihood of functioning on demand. Traditional approaches to the design of safety critical systems follow the preliminary design, analysis, appraisal and redesign stages until what is regarded as an acceptable design is achieved. For safety systems whose failure could result in loss of life it is imperative that the best use of the available resources is made and a system which is optimal, not just adequate, is produced. The object of the design optimisation problem is to minimise system unavailability through manipulation of the design variables, such that limitations placed on them by constraints are not violated. Commonly, with mathematical optimisation problem; there will be an explicit objective function which defines how the characteristic to be minimised is related to the variables. As regards the safety system problem, an explicit objective function cannot be formulated, and as such, system performance is assessed using the fault tree method. By the use of house events a single fault tree is constructed to represent the failure causes of each potential design to overcome the time consuming task of constructing a fault tree for each design investigated during the optimisation procedure. Once the fault tree has been constructed for the design in question it is converted to a BDD for analysis. A genetic algorithm is first employed to perform the system optimisation, where the practicality of this approach is demonstrated initially through application to a High-Integrity Protection System (HIPS) and subsequently a more complex Firewater Deluge System (FDS). An alternative optimisation scheme achieves the final design specification by solving a sequence of optimisation problems. Each of these problems are defined by assuming some form of the objective function and specifying a sub-region of the design space over which this function will be representative of the system unavailability. The thesis concludes with attention to various optimisation techniques, which possess features able to address difficulties in the optimisation of safety critical systems. Specifically, consideration is given to the use of a statistically designed experiment and a logical search approach

Calculation of the System Unavailability Measures of Component Importance Using the D 2 T 2 Methodology of Fault Tree Analysis

A recent development in Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), known as Dynamic and Dependant Tree Theory (D 2 T 2), accounts for dependencies between the basic events, making FTA more powerful. The method uses an integrated combination of Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs), Stochastic Petri Nets (SPN) and Markov models. Current algorithms enable the prediction of the system failure probability and failure frequency. This paper proposes methods which extend the current capability of the D 2 T 2 framework to calculate component importance measures. Birnbaum's measure of importance, the Criticality measure of importance, the Risk Achievement Worth (RAW) measure of importance and the Risk Reduction Worth (RRW) measure of importance are considered. This adds a vital ability to the framework enabling the influence that components have on system failure to be determined and the most effective means of improving system performance to be identified. The algorithms for calculating each measure of importance are described and demonstrated using a pressure vessel cooling system

Risk Management for Enterprise Resource Planning System Implementations in Project-Based Firms

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems have been regarded as one of the most important information technology developments in the past decades. While ERP systems provide the potential to bring substantial benefits, their implementations are characterized with large capital outlay, long duration, and high risks of failure including implementation process failure and system usage failure. As a result, the adoption of ERP systems in project-based firms has been lagged behind lots of companies in many other industries. In order to ensure the success of ERP system implementations in project-based firms, sound risk management is the key. The overall objective of this research is to identify the risks in ERP system implementations within project-based firms and develop a new approach to analyze these risks and quantitatively assess their impacts on ERP system implementation failure. At first, the research describes ERP systems in conjunction with the nature and working practices of project-based firms and current status and issues related to ERP adoption in such firms, and thus analyzes the causes for their relatively low ERP adoption and states the research problems and objectives. Accordingly, a conceptual research framework is presented, and the procedures and research methods are outlined. Secondly, based on the risk factors regarding generic ERP projects in extant literature, the research comprehensively identifies the risk factors of ERP system implementation within project-based firms. These risk factors are classified into different categories, qualitatively described and analyzed, and used to establish a risk taxonomy. Thirdly, an approach is developed based on fault tree analysis to decompose ERP systems failure and assess the relationships between ERP component failures and system usage failure, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The principles and processes of this approach and related fault tree analysis methods and techniques are presented in the context of ERP projects. Fourthly, certain practical strategies are proposed to manage the risks of ERP system implementations. The proposed risk assessment approach and management strategies together with the comprehensive list of identified risk factors not only contribute to the body of knowledge of information system risk management, but also can be used as an effective tool by practitioners to actively analyze, assess, and manage the risks of ERP system implementations within project-based firms

RELIABILITY CENTERED MAINTENANCE (RCM) FOR ASSET MANAGEMENT IN ELECTRIC POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

The purpose of Maintenance is to extend equipment life time or at least the mean time to the next failure. Asset Maintenance, which is part of asset management, incurs expenditure but could result in very costly consequences if not performed or performed too little. It may not even be economical to perform it too frequently. The decision therefore, to eliminate or minimize the risk of equipment failure must not be based on trial and error as it was done in the past. In this thesis, an enhanced Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) methodology that is based on a quantitative relationship between preventive maintenance (PM) performed at system component level and the overall system reliability was applied to identify the distribution components that are critical to system reliability. Maintenance model relating probability of failure to maintenance activity was developed for maintainable distribution components. The Markov maintenance Model developed was then used to predict the remaining life of transformer insulation for a selected distribution system. This Model incorporates various levels of insulation deterioration and minor maintenance state. If current state of insulation ageing is assumed from diagnostic testing and inspection, the Model is capable of computing the average time before insulation failure occurs. The results obtained from both Model simulation and the computer program of the mathematical formulation of the expected remaining life verified the mathematical analysis of the developed model in this thesis. The conclusion from this study shows that it is beneficial to base asset management decisions on a model that is verified with processed, analysed and tested outage data such as the model developed in this thesis

FLIGHT RISK MANAGEMENT AND CREW RESERVE OPTIMIZATION

There are two key concerns in the development process of aviation. One is safety, and the other is cost. An airline running with high safety and low cost must be the most competitive one in the market. This work investigates two research efforts respectively relevant to these two concerns. When building support of a real time Flight Risk Assessment and Mitigation System (FRAMS), a sequential multi-stage approach is developed. The whole risk management process is considered in order to improve the safety of each flight by integrating AHP and FTA technique to describe the framework of all levels of risks through risk score. Unlike traditional fault tree analysis, severity level, time level and synergy effect are taken into account when calculating the risk score for each flight. A risk tree is designed for risk data with flat shape structure and a time sensitive optimization model is developed to support decision making of how to mitigate risk with as little cost as possible. A case study is solved in reasonable time to approve that the model is practical for the real time system. On the other hand, an intense competitive environment makes cost controlling more and more important for airlines. An integrated approach is developed for improving the efficiency of reserve crew scheduling which can contribute to decrease cost. Unlike the other technique, this approach integrates the demand forecasting, reserve pattern generation and optimization. A reserve forecasting tool is developed based on a large data base. The expected value of each type of dropped trip is the output of this tool based on the predicted dropping rate and the total scheduled trips. The rounding step in current applied methods is avoided to keep as much information as possible. The forecasting stage is extended to the optimization stage through the input of these expected values. A novel optimization model with column generation algorithm is developed to generate patterns to cover these expected level reserve demands with minimization to the total cost. The many-to-many covering mode makes the model avoid the influence of forecasting errors caused by high uncertainty as much as possible