Time variance and defect prediction in software projects: Towards an exploitation of periods of stability and change as well as a notion of concept drift in software projects

It is crucial for a software manager to know whether or not one can rely on a bug prediction model. A wrong prediction of the number or the location of future bugs can lead to problems in the achievement of a project's goals. In this paper we first verify the existence of variability in a bug prediction model's accuracy over time both visually and statistically. Furthermore, we explore the reasons for such a high variability over time, which includes periods of stability and variability of prediction quality, and formulate a decision procedure for evaluating prediction models before applying them. To exemplify our findings we use data from four open source projects and empirically identify various project features that influence the defect prediction quality. Specifically, we observed that a change in the number of authors editing a file and the number of defects fixed by them influence the prediction quality. Finally, we introduce an approach to estimate the accuracy of prediction models that helps a project manager decide when to rely on a prediction model. Our findings suggest that one should be aware of the periods of stability and variability of prediction quality and should use approaches such as ours to assess their models' accuracy in advanc

Contributions to time series analysis, modelling and forecasting to increase reliability in industrial environments.

356 p.La integración del Internet of Things en el sector industrial es clave para alcanzar la inteligencia empresarial. Este estudio se enfoca en mejorar o proponer nuevos enfoques para aumentar la confiabilidad de las soluciones de IA basadas en datos de series temporales en la industria. Se abordan tres fases: mejora de la calidad de los datos, modelos y errores. Se propone una definición estándar de métricas de calidad y se incluyen en el paquete dqts de R. Se exploran los pasos del modelado de series temporales, desde la extracción de características hasta la elección y aplicación del modelo de predicción más eficiente. El método KNPTS, basado en la búsqueda de patrones en el histórico, se presenta como un paquete de R para estimar datos futuros. Además, se sugiere el uso de medidas elásticas de similitud para evaluar modelos de regresión y la importancia de métricas adecuadas en problemas de clases desbalanceadas. Las contribuciones se validaron en casos de uso industrial de diferentes campos: calidad de producto, previsión de consumo eléctrico, detección de porosidad y diagnóstico de máquinas

Harnessing Knowledge, Innovation and Competence in Engineering of Mission Critical Systems

This book explores the critical role of acquisition, application, enhancement, and management of knowledge and human competence in the context of the largely digital and data/information dominated modern world. Whilst humanity owes much of its achievements to the distinct capability to learn from observation, analyse data, gain insights, and perceive beyond original realities, the systematic treatment of knowledge as a core capability and driver of success has largely remained the forte of pedagogy. In an increasingly intertwined global community faced with existential challenges and risks, the significance of knowledge creation, innovation, and systematic understanding and treatment of human competence is likely to be humanity's greatest weapon against adversity. This book was conceived to inform the decision makers and practitioners about the best practice pertinent to many disciplines and sectors. The chapters fall into three broad categories to guide the readers to gain insight from generic fundamentals to discipline-specific case studies and of the latest practice in knowledge and competence management

Harnessing Knowledge, Innovation and Competence in Engineering of Mission Critical Systems

This book explores the critical role of acquisition, application, enhancement, and management of knowledge and human competence in the context of the largely digital and data/information dominated modern world. Whilst humanity owes much of its achievements to the distinct capability to learn from observation, analyse data, gain insights, and perceive beyond original realities, the systematic treatment of knowledge as a core capability and driver of success has largely remained the forte of pedagogy. In an increasingly intertwined global community faced with existential challenges and risks, the significance of knowledge creation, innovation, and systematic understanding and treatment of human competence is likely to be humanity's greatest weapon against adversity. This book was conceived to inform the decision makers and practitioners about the best practice pertinent to many disciplines and sectors. The chapters fall into three broad categories to guide the readers to gain insight from generic fundamentals to discipline-specific case studies and of the latest practice in knowledge and competence management

Banking and Finance

The banking and finance industry plays a significant role in the economy of a nation. As such, continuous research and up-to-date feeds are necessary for it to stay competitive and resilient. Due to its revolving and dynamic nature as well as its significance and interlinkages with other industries, a well-functioning banking and finance system is vital in safeguarding the interest of all stakeholders. Banking and Finance covers a wide range of essential topics highlighting major issues related to banking and finance. The book is rich with empirical evidence, scientific researches, best practices, and recommendations, making it a compact yet handy reference for readers, especially those who are in the field of banking and finance

Volume II Acquisition Research Creating Synergy for Informed Change, Thursday 19th Annual Acquisition Research Proceedings

ProceedingsApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited