Assessment of earthquake-induced slope deformation of earth dams using soft computing techniques

© 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Evaluating behavior of earth dams under dynamic loads is one of the most important problems associated with the initial design of such massive structures. This study focuses on prediction of deformation of earth dams due to earthquake shaking. A total number of 103 real cases of deformation in earth dams due to earthquakes that has occurred over the past years were gathered and analyzed. Using soft computing methods, including feed-forward back-propagation and radial basis function based neural networks, two models were developed to predict slope deformations in earth dams under variant earthquake shaking. Earthquake magnitude (M w ), yield acceleration ratio (a y /a max ), and fundamental period ratio (T d /T p ) were considered as the most important factors contributing to the level of deformation in earth dams. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the performance of the proposed model under various conditions. Finally, the accuracy of the developed soft computing model was compared with the conventional relationships and models to estimate seismic deformations of earth dams. The results demonstrate that the developed neural model can provide accurate predictions in comparison to the available practical charts and recommendations

Neural Network Algorithms for using Radon Emanations as an Earthquake Precursor

The investigation throughout the world in past two decades provides evidence which indicates that significance variation of radon and other soil gases may occur in association with major geophysical events such as earthquake events. The traditional statistical algorithm which included regression to remove the effect of the meteorological parameters from the as is measured radon along with additional variation that periodicity in seasonal variations is computed using Fast Fourier Transform has shown to improve reliability of prediction of earthquake The present paper deals with the use of neural network algorithms which can learn the behavior of radon with respect to known meteorological parameters. This method has potential of tracking 201C;changing patterns201D; in dependence of radon on meteorological parameters and it may adapt to such changes on its own in due course of time. Another neural network algorithm using Probabilistic Neural Networks that requires neither an explicit step of regression nor use of any specific period is also presented

Earthquake Prediction

Among the countless natural disasters, earthquakes are capable to inflict vast devastation to a large number of buildings and constructions at the blink of an eye. Lack of knowledge and awareness on earthquake as well as its comeback is conspicuous and results in disaster; leading to bitter memories. Therefore, earthquake forecast has been a polemical study theme that has defied even the most intelligent of minds. In this chapter, an attempt was made to do an extensive overview in the area of the earthquake prediction as well as classifying them into the main strategies comprising short‐, immediate‐, and long‐term prediction. An example of each strategy was carried out by mentioning their corresponding approaches/algorithms, such as ΔCFS, CN, MSc, M8, ANN, FFBPANN, KNN, GRNN, RBF, and LMBP; depending on the importance of each strategy. Based on these, it was concluded that, after the Tohoku‐Oki earthquake with M9.0, the current orientation of the Headquarters for earthquake Research Promotion of MEXT in Japan declare that, their mission would be long‐term statistical forecast of seismicity. Even, it is claimed that they do not emphasize on short‐term forecasting. Besides, intermediate‐term estimations are not capable to be used for prevention of all damages and protect all human life, but they may be utilized to undertake certain affordable activities to decrease damage, losses, and modify postdisaster relief. And, despite the long‐term prediction is more concerned by researchers, there is no certain satisfactory level to content them. De facto, the made covenant of 1970 that investigators will be capable to forecast/predict ground excitations within a decade, still remains unmet

A Modified Radial Basis Function Method for Predicting Debris Flow Mean Velocity

This study focused on a model for predicting debris flow mean velocity. A total of 50 debris flow events were investigated in the Jiangjia gully. A modified radial basis function (MRBF) neural network was developed for predicting the debris flow mean velocity in the Jiangjia gully. A three-dimensional total error surface was used for establishing the predicting model. A back propagation (BP) neural network and the modified Manning formula (MMF) were used as benchmarks. Finally, the sensitivity degrees of five variables that influence debris flow velocity were analyzed. The results show that the mean error and the relative mean error of the 10 testing samples were only 0.31 m/s and 5.92%, respectively. This proves that the MRBF method performed very well in predicting debris flow mean velocity. Gradient of channel and unstable layer thickness have a greater impact on debris flow mean velocity than the other three influencing variables. This proves that the proposed MRBF neural network is reliable in predicting debris flow mean velocity

Application of Artificial Intelligence in predicting earthquakes: state-of-the-art and future challenges

Predicting the time, location and magnitude of an earthquake is a challenging job as an earthquake does not show specific patterns resulting in inaccurate predictions. Techniques based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) are well known for their capability to find hidden patterns in data. In the case of earthquake prediction, these models also produce a promising outcome. This work systematically explores the contributions made to date in earthquake prediction using AI-based techniques. A total of 84 scientific research papers, which reported the use of AI-based techniques in earthquake prediction, have been selected from different academic databases. These studies include a range of AI techniques including rule-based methods, shallow machine learning and deep learning algorithms. Covering all existing AI-based techniques in earthquake prediction, this paper provides an account of the available methodologies and a comparative analysis of their performances. The performance comparison has been reported from the perspective of used datasets and evaluation metrics. Furthermore, using comparative analysis of performances the paper aims to facilitate the selection of appropriate techniques for earthquake prediction. Towards the end, it outlines some open challenges and potential research directions in the field

Discharge Forecasting By Applying Artificial Neural Networks At The Jinsha River Basin, China

Flood prediction methods play an important role in providing early warnings to government offices. The ability to predict future river flows helps people anticipate and plan for upcoming flooding, preventing deaths and decreasing property destruction. Different hydrological models supporting these predictions have different characteristics, driven by available data and the research area. This study applied three different types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and an autoregressive model to study the Jinsha river basin (JRB), in the upper part of the Yangtze River in China. The three ANN techniques include feedforward back propagation neural networks (FFBPNN), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and the radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) has shown Great deal of accuracy as compared to statistical autoregressive (AR) model because statistical model cannot able to simulate the non-linear pattern. The results varied across the cases used in the study; based on available data and the study area, FFBPNN showed the best applicability, compared to other techniques