Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction

Traditional crime prediction models based on census data are limited, as they fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of human activity. With the rise of ubiquitous computing, there is the opportunity to improve such models with data that make for better proxies of human presence in cities. In this paper, we leverage large human mobility data to craft an extensive set of features for crime prediction, as informed by theories in criminology and urban studies. We employ averaging and boosting ensemble techniques from machine learning, to investigate their power in predicting yearly counts for different types of crimes occurring in New York City at census tract level. Our study shows that spatial and spatio-temporal features derived from Foursquare venues and checkins, subway rides, and taxi rides, improve the baseline models relying on census and POI data. The proposed models achieve absolute R^2 metrics of up to 65% (on a geographical out-of-sample test set) and up to 89% (on a temporal out-of-sample test set). This proves that, next to the residential population of an area, the ambient population there is strongly predictive of the area's crime levels. We deep-dive into the main crime categories, and find that the predictive gain of the human dynamics features varies across crime types: such features bring the biggest boost in case of grand larcenies, whereas assaults are already well predicted by the census features. Furthermore, we identify and discuss top predictive features for the main crime categories. These results offer valuable insights for those responsible for urban policy or law enforcement

Reserve Size And Fragmentation Alter Community Assembly, Diversity, And Dynamics

Researchers have disputed whether a single large habitat reserve will support more species than many small reserves. However, relatively little is known from a theoretical perspective about how reserve size affects competitive communities structured by spatial abiotic gradients. We investigate how reserve size affects theoretical communities whose assembly is governed by dispersal limitation, abiotic niche differentiation, and source-sink dynamics. Simulations were conducted with varying scales of dispersal across landscapes with variable environmental spatial autocorrelation. Landscapes were inhabited by simulated trees with seedling and adult stages. For a fixed total area in reserves, we found that small reserve systems increased the distance between environments dominated by different species, diminishing the effects of source-sink dynamics. As reserve size decreased, environmental limitations to community assembly became stronger, species richness decreased, and richness increased. When dispersal occurred across short distances, a large reserve strategy caused greater stochastic community variation, greater richness, and lower richness than in small reserve systems. We found that reserve size variation trades off between preserving different aspects of natural communities, including diversity versus diversity. Optimal reserve size will depend on the importance of source-sink dynamics and the value placed on different characteristics of natural communities. Anthropogenic changes to the size and separation of remnant habitats can have far-reaching effects on community structure and assembly.Integrative Biolog

Approaches for advancing scientific understanding of macrosystems

The emergence of macrosystems ecology (MSE), which focuses on regional- to continental-scale ecological patterns and processes, builds upon a history of long-term and broad-scale studies in ecology. Scientists face the difficulty of integrating the many elements that make up macrosystems, which consist of hierarchical processes at interacting spatial and temporal scales. Researchers must also identify the most relevant scales and variables to be considered, the required data resources, and the appropriate study design to provide the proper inferences. The large volumes of multi-thematic data often associated with macrosystem studies typically require validation, standardization, and assimilation. Finally, analytical approaches need to describe how cross-scale and hierarchical dynamics and interactions relate to macroscale phenomena. Here, we elaborate on some key methodological challenges of MSE research and discuss existing and novel approaches to meet them

Method and apparatus for predicting the direction of movement in machine vision

A computer-simulated cortical network is presented. The network is capable of computing the visibility of shifts in the direction of movement. Additionally, the network can compute the following: (1) the magnitude of the position difference between the test and background patterns; (2) localized contrast differences at different spatial scales analyzed by computing temporal gradients of the difference and sum of the outputs of paired even- and odd-symmetric bandpass filters convolved with the input pattern; and (3) the direction of a test pattern moved relative to a textured background. The direction of movement of an object in the field of view of a robotic vision system is detected in accordance with nonlinear Gabor function algorithms. The movement of objects relative to their background is used to infer the 3-dimensional structure and motion of object surfaces

Quantifying Dynamics in Tropical Peat Swamp Forest Biomass with Multi- Temporal LiDAR Datasets

Tropical peat swamp forests in Indonesia store huge amounts of carbon and are responsible for enormous carbon emissions every year due to forest degradation and deforestation. These forest areas are in the focus of REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks) projects, which require an accurate monitoring of their carbon stocks or aboveground biomass (AGB). Our study objective was to evaluate multi-temporal LiDAR measurements of a tropical forested peatland area in Central Kalimantan on Borneo. Canopy height and AGB dynamics were quantified with a special focus on unaffected, selective logged and burned forests. More than 11,000 ha were surveyed with airborne LiDAR in 2007 and 2011. In a first step, the comparability of these datasets was examined and canopy height models were created. Novel AGB regression models were developed on the basis of field inventory measurements and LiDAR derived height histograms for 2007 (r(2) = 0.77, n = 79) and 2011 (r(2) = 0.81, n = 53), taking the different point densities into account. Changes in peat swamp forests were identified by analyzing multispectral imagery. Unaffected forests accumulated on average 20 t/ha AGB with a canopy height increase of 2.3 m over the four year time period. Selective logged forests experienced an average AGB loss of 55 t/ha within 30 m and 42 t/ha within 50 m of detected logging trails, although the mean canopy height increased by 0.5 m and 1.0 m, respectively. Burned forests lost 92% of the initial biomass. These results demonstrate the great potential of repetitive airborne LiDAR surveys to precisely quantify even small scale AGB and canopy height dynamics in remote tropical forests, thereby featuring the needs of REDD+

Remote Sensing Information Sciences Research Group, Santa Barbara Information Sciences Research Group, year 3

Research continues to focus on improving the type, quantity, and quality of information which can be derived from remotely sensed data. The focus is on remote sensing and application for the Earth Observing System (Eos) and Space Station, including associated polar and co-orbiting platforms. The remote sensing research activities are being expanded, integrated, and extended into the areas of global science, georeferenced information systems, machine assissted information extraction from image data, and artificial intelligence. The accomplishments in these areas are examined