Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests

Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, chemical and biological environment that tropical trees grow in has been altered over recent decades across large areas of the tropics, and (ii) the theoretical, experimental and observational evidence regarding the most likely effects of each of these changes on tropical forests. Ten potential widespread drivers of environmental change were identified: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, climatic extremes (including El Niño Southern Oscillation events), atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nutrient deposition, O3/acid depositions, hunting, land-use change and increasing liana numbers. We note that each of these environmental changes is expected to leave a unique 'fingerprint' in tropical forests, as drivers directly force different processes, have different distributions in space and time and may affect some forests more than others (e.g. depending on soil fertility). Thus, in the third part of the paper we present testable a priori predictions of forest responses to assist ecologists in attributing particular changes in forests to particular causes across multiple datasets. Finally, we discuss how these drivers may change in the future and the possible consequences for tropical forests

Securing tropical forest carbon: the contribution of protected areas to REDD

Forest loss and degradation in the tropics contribute 6-17% of all greenhouse gas emissions. Protected areas cover 217.2 million ha (19.6%) of the world's humid tropical forests and contain c. 70.3 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) in biomass and soil to 1 m depth. Between 2000 and 2005, we estimate that 1.75 million ha of forest were lost from protected areas in humid tropical forests, causing the emission of 0.25-0.33 Pg C. Protected areas lost about half as much carbon as the same area of unprotected forest. We estimate that the reduction of these carbon emissions from ongoing deforestation in protected sites in humid tropical forests could be valued at USD 6,200-7,400 million depending on the land use after clearance. This is >1.5 times the estimated spending on protected area management in these regions. Improving management of protected areas to retain forest cover better may be an important, although certainly not sufficient, component of an overall strategy for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD

Changes in growth of tropical forests: evaluating potential biases

Over the past century almost every ecosystem on Earth has come under the influence of changes in atmospheric composition and climate caused by human activity. Tropical forests are among the most productive and extensive ecosystems, and it has been hypothesized that both the dynamics and biomass of apparently undisturbed, old-growth tropical forests have been changing in response to atmospheric changes. Long-term forest sample plots are a critical tool in detecting and monitoring such changes, and our recent analysis of pan-tropical-forest plot data has suggested that the biomass of tropical forests has been increasing, providing a modest negative feedback on the rate of accumulation of atmospheric CO2. However, it has been argued that some of these old forest plot data sets have significant problems in interpretation because of the use of nonstandardized methodologies. In this paper we examine the extent to which potential field methodological errors may bias estimates of total biomass change by detailed examination of tree-by-tree records from up to 120 Neotropical plots to test predictions from theory. Potential positive biases on measurements of biomass change include a bias in site selection, tree deformities introduced by the measurement process, poor methodologies to deal with tree deformities or buttresses, and nonrecording of negative growth increments. We show that, while it is important to improve and standardize methodologies in current and future forest-plot work, any systematic errors introduced by currently identified biases in past studies are small and calculable. We conclude that most tropical-forest plot data are of useful quality, and that the evidence does still weigh conclusively in favor of a recent increase of biomass in old-growth tropical forests

Are we using the most appropriate methodologies to assess the sensitivity of rainforest biodiversity to habitat disturbance?

Accurately assessing how biodiversity responds in the Anthropocene is vital. To do so, a number of indicator taxa are commonly used to monitor human-impacted forests and the subsequent recovery of their biodiversity. This makes monitoring more economically feasible, yet only valuable if the responses observed truly reflect the status of biodiversity. Many challenges exist for getting this monitoring right, including choosing the most effective indicators and ultimately choosing the most appropriate methods to capture trends. We have reason to believe that the methods currently used to assess humanimpacted tropical forest might be misrepresenting trends related to the degree of impact of disturbance to biodiversity and to the value of secondary forests for biodiversity conservation. Using recent case studies that assessed butterflies, we challenge the paradigm that fruit-baited butterfly traps are the best method for assessing human-impacted tropical forests, and that their use solely along the forest floor is underestimating the impacts to biodiversity in tropical forests. We suggest that alternative or additional methods could provide a more representative picture of the overall butterfly biodiversity responses to human-impacted tropical forests and that similar assessments of other groups and methods should be carried out

Nitrogen stable isotopic composition of leaves and soil: Tropical versus temperate forests

Several lines of evidence suggest that nitrogen in most tropical forests is relatively more available than N in most temperate forests, and even that it may function as an excess nutrient in many tropical forests. If this is correct, tropical forests should have more open N cycles than temperate forests, with both inputs and outputs of N large relative to N cycling within systems. Consequent differences in both the magnitude and the pathways of N loss imply that tropical forests should in general he more 15N enriched than are most temperate forests. In order to test this hypothesis, we compared the nitrogen stable isotopic composition of tree leaves and soils from a variety of tropical and temperate forests. Foliar δ15N values from tropical forests averaged 6.5‰ higher than from temperate forests. Within the tropics, ecosystems with relatively low N availability (montane forests, forests on sandy soils) were significantly more depleted in 15N than other tropical forests. The average δ15N values for tropical forest soils, either for surface or for depth samples, were almost 8‰ higher than temperate forest soils. These results provide another line of evidence that N is relatively abundant in many tropical forest ecosystems

Increasing turnover through time in tropical forests

Tree turnover rates were assessed at 40 tropical forest sites. Averaged across inventoried forests, turnover, as measured by tree mortality and recruitment, has increased since the 1950's, with an apparent pantropical acceleration since 1980. Among 22 mature forest sites with two or more inventory periods, forest turnover also increased. The trend in forest dynamics may have profound effects on biological diversity

The role of tropical forests in supporting biodiversity and hydrological integrity: a synoptic overview

Conservation of high-biodiversity tropical forests is sometimes justified on the basis of assumed hydrological benefits - in particular, the reduction of flooding hazards for downstream floodplain populations. However, the"far-field"link between deforestation and distant flooding has been difficult to demonstrate empirically. This simulation study assesses the relationship between forest cover and hydrology for all river basins intersecting the world's tropical forest biomes. The study develops a consistent set of pan-tropical land cover maps gridded at one-half degree latitude and longitude. It integrates these data with existing global biogeophysical data. The study applies the Water Balance Model - a coarse-scale process-based hydrological model - to assess the impact of land cover changes on runoff. It quantifies the impacts of forest conversion on biodiversity and hydrology for two scenarios - historical forest conversion and the potential future conversion of the most threatened remaining tropical forests. A worst-case scenario of complete conversion of the most threatened of the remaining forested areas would mean the loss of another three million km2 of tropical forests. Increased annual yield from the conversion of threatened tropical forests would be less than 5 percent of contemporary yield in aggregate. However, about 100 million people - 80 million of them in floodplains - would experience increases of more than 25 percent in annual water flows. This might be associated with commensurate increases in peak flows, though further analysis would be necessary to gauge the impact on flooding. The study highlights basins in Southeast Asia, southern China, and Latin America that warrant further study.Wetlands,Forestry,Climate Change,Drylands&Desertification,Earth Sciences&GIS