26,665 research outputs found
Testing for Network and Spatial Autocorrelation
Testing for dependence has been a well-established component of spatial
statistical analyses for decades. In particular, several popular test
statistics have desirable properties for testing for the presence of spatial
autocorrelation in continuous variables. In this paper we propose two
contributions to the literature on tests for autocorrelation. First, we propose
a new test for autocorrelation in categorical variables. While some methods
currently exist for assessing spatial autocorrelation in categorical variables,
the most popular method is unwieldy, somewhat ad hoc, and fails to provide
grounds for a single omnibus test. Second, we discuss the importance of testing
for autocorrelation in data sampled from the nodes of a network, motivated by
social network applications. We demonstrate that our proposed statistic for
categorical variables can both be used in the spatial and network setting
Testing for Network and Spatial Autocorrelation
Testing for dependence has been a well-established component of spatial
statistical analyses for decades. In particular, several popular test
statistics have desirable properties for testing for the presence of spatial
autocorrelation in continuous variables. In this paper we propose two
contributions to the literature on tests for autocorrelation. First, we propose
a new test for autocorrelation in categorical variables. While some methods
currently exist for assessing spatial autocorrelation in categorical variables,
the most popular method is unwieldy, somewhat ad hoc, and fails to provide
grounds for a single omnibus test. Second, we discuss the importance of testing
for autocorrelation in network, rather than spatial, data, motivated by
applications in social network data. We demonstrate that existing tests for
autocorrelation in spatial data for continuous variables and our new test for
categorical variables can both be used in the network setting
Why is order flow so persistent?
Order flow in equity markets is remarkably persistent in the sense that order
signs (to buy or sell) are positively autocorrelated out to time lags of tens
of thousands of orders, corresponding to many days. Two possible explanations
are herding, corresponding to positive correlation in the behavior of different
investors, or order splitting, corresponding to positive autocorrelation in the
behavior of single investors. We investigate this using order flow data from
the London Stock Exchange for which we have membership identifiers. By
formulating models for herding and order splitting, as well as models for
brokerage choice, we are able to overcome the distortion introduced by
brokerage. On timescales of less than a few hours the persistence of order flow
is overwhelmingly due to splitting rather than herding. We also study the
properties of brokerage order flow and show that it is remarkably consistent
both cross-sectionally and longitudinally.Comment: 42 pages, 15 figure
Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system
The study of complex social and political phenomena with the perspective and
methods of network science has proven fruitful in a variety of areas, including
applications in political science and more narrowly the field of international
relations. We propose a new line of research in the study of international
conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international
system (which we label Kantian fractionalization) is a powerful predictor of
the propensity for violent interstate conflict, a key indicator of the system's
stability. In so doing, we also demonstrate the first use of multislice
modularity for community detection in a multiplex network application. Even
after controlling for established system-level conflict indicators, we find
that Kantian fractionalization contributes more to model fit for violent
interstate conflict than previously established measures. Moreover, evaluating
the influence of each of the constituent networks shows that joint democracy
plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging a
major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, a
series of Granger causal tests shows that the temporal variability of Kantian
fractionalization is consistent with a causal relationship with the prevalence
of conflict in the international system. This causal relationship has
real-world policy implications as changes in Kantian fractionalization could
serve as an early warning sign of international instability.Comment: 17 pages + 17 pages designed as supplementary online materia
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