22 research outputs found

    Machine learning-based identification of the strongest predictive variables of winning and losing in Belgian professional soccer

    Get PDF
    This study aimed to identify the strongest predictive variables of winning and losing in the highest Belgian soccer division. A predictive machine learning model based on a broad range of variables (n = 100) was constructed, using a dataset consisting of 576 games. To avoid multicollinearity and reduce dimensionality, Variance Inflation Factor (threshold of 5) and BorutaShap were respectively applied. A total of 13 variables remained and were used to predict winning or losing using Extreme Gradient Boosting. TreeExplainer was applied to determine feature importance on a global and local level. The model showed an accuracy of 89.6% ± 3.1% (precision: 88.9%; recall: 90.1%, f1-score: 89.5%), correctly classifying 516 out of 576 games. Shots on target from the attacking penalty box showed to be the best predictor. Several physical indicators are amongst the best predictors, as well as contextual variables such as ELO -ratings, added transfers value of the benched players and match location. The results show the added value of the inclusion of a broad spectrum of variables when predicting and evaluating game outcomes. Similar modelling approaches can be used by clubs to identify the strongest predictive variables for their leagues, and evaluate and improve their current quantitative analyses

    Prediction of the Ball Location on the 2D Plane in Football Using Optical Tracking Data

    Get PDF
    Tracking the ball location is essential for automated game analysis in complex ball-centered team sports such as football. However, it has always been a challenge for image processing-based techniques because the players and other factors often occlude the view of the ball. This study proposes an automated machine learning-based method for predicting the ball location from players' behavior on the pitch. The model has been built by processing spatial information of players acquired from optical tracking data. Optical tracking data include samples from 300 matches of the 2017-2018 season of the Turkish Football Federation's Super League. We use neural networks to predict the ball location in 2D axes. The average coefficient of determination of the ball tracking model on the test set both for the x-axis and the y-axis is accordingly 79% and 92%, where the mean absolute error is 7.56 meters for the x-axis and 5.01 meters for the y-axi

    Biophysical Modeling of Mangrove Seedling Establishment and Survival Across an Elevation Gradient With Forest Zones

    Get PDF
    Mangrove forest development critically depends on the establishment and survival of seedlings. Mechanistic insights into how water levels, waves and bed level dynamics influence the establishment process of individual mangrove seedlings are increasing. However, little is known about how spatial and temporal changes in water levels, waves and bed level dynamics across elevation gradients in mangrove forests facilitate/limit seedling dynamics. For this study, a new seedling establishment and growth model was integrated into a process-based hydrodynamic and morphodynamic numerical model. This biophysical model was applied to a fringing mangrove forest located in the southern Firth of Thames, Aotearoa, New Zealand. This study quantifies the increasing establishment density and survival probability of mangrove seedlings from the lower-elevated unvegetated intertidal flat toward the higher-elevated mature mangrove forest. Three cross-shore zones with distinctive seedling dynamics were identified: (a) a zone with daily tidal inundation where seedling dynamics are episodic and limited by the dispersal of individual propagules that rapidly anchor to the substrate by root growth, (b) a zone with daily to bi-weekly tidal inundation where seedling dynamics respond to variations in spring-neap tidal cycles and, (c) a zone with less than bi-weekly inundation where seedling dynamics are governed by high propagule supply and seedling survival probability. The seedling establishment density and survival probability are dominated by annual extremes in tidal hydroperiod and bed shear stresses, respectively. The obtained parameterizations can be used to incorporate seedling dynamics in decadal-timescale mangrove forest development models that are instrumental for mangrove management and restoration

    Grand Challenges in SportsHCI

    Get PDF
    The field of Sports Human-Computer Interaction (SportsHCI) investigates interaction design to support a physically active human being. Despite growing interest and dissemination of SportsHCI literature over the past years, many publications still focus on solving specific problems in a given sport. We believe in the benefit of generating fundamental knowledge for SportsHCI more broadly to advance the field as a whole. To achieve this, we aim to identify the grand challenges in SportsHCI, which can help researchers and practitioners in developing a future research agenda. Hence, this paper presents a set of grand challenges identified in a five-day workshop with 22 experts who have previously researched, designed, and deployed SportsHCI systems. Addressing these challenges will drive transformative advancements in SportsHCI, fostering better athlete performance, athlete-coach relationships, spectator engagement, but also immersive experiences for recreational sports or exercisemotivation, and ultimately, improve human well-being

    Identifying the Current State and Improvement Opportunities in the Information Flows Necessary to Manage Professional Athletes: A Case Study in Rugby Union

    Get PDF
    In sporting environments, the knowledge necessary to manage athletes is built on information flows associated with player management processes. In current literature, there are limited case studies available to illustrate how such information flows are optimized. Hence, as the first step of an optimization project, this study aimed to evaluate the current state and the improvement opportunities in the player management information flow executed within the High-Performance Unit (HPU) at a professional rugby union club in England. Guided by a Business Process Management framework, elicitation of the current process architecture illustrated the existence of 18 process units and two core process value chains relating to player management. From the identified processes, the HPU management team prioritized 7 processes for optimization. In-depth details on the current state (As-Is) of the selected processes were extracted from semi-structured, interview-based process discovery and were modeled using Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) and Decision Model and Notation (DMN) standards. Results were presented for current issues in the information flow of the daily training load management process, identified through a thematic analysis conducted on the data obtained mainly from focus group discussions with the main stakeholders (physiotherapists, strength and conditioning coaches, and HPU management team) of the process. Specifically, the current state player management information flow in the HPU had issues relating to knowledge creation and process flexibility. Therefore, the results illustrate that requirements for information flow optimization within the considered environment exist in the transition from data to knowledge during the execution of player management decision-making processes.</p

    Digitally Optimizing the Information Flows Necessary to Manage Professional Athletes: A Case Study in Rugby Union

    Get PDF
    Practical case studies elaborating end-to-end attempts to improve the quality of information flows associated with athlete management processes are scarce in the current sport literature. Therefore, guided by a Business Process Management (BPM) approach, the current study presents the outcomes from a case study to optimize the quality of strength and conditioning (S&amp;C) information flow in the performance department of a professional rugby union club. Initially, the S&amp;C information flow was redesigned using integral technology, activity elimination and activity automation redesign heuristics. Utilizing the Lean Startup framework, the redesigned information flow was digitally transformed by designing data collection, management and visualization systems. Statistical tests used to assess the usability of the data collection systems against industry benchmarks using the System Usability Scale (SUS) administered to 55 players highlighted that its usability (mean SUS score of 87.6 ± 10.76) was well above average industry benchmarks of similar systems (Grade A from SUS scale). In the data visualization system, 14 minor usability problems were identified from 9 cognitive walkthroughs conducted with the High-Performance Unit (HPU) staff. Pre-post optimization information quality was subjectively assessed by administering a standardized questionnaire to the HPU members. The results indicated positive improvements in all of the information quality dimensions (with major improvements to the accessibility) relating to the S&amp;C information flow. Additionally, the methods utilized in the study would be especially beneficial for sporting environments requiring cost effective and easily adoptable information flow digitization initiatives which need to be implemented by its internal staff members.</p

    Attacking Key Performance Indicators in Soccer: Current Practice and Perceptions from the Elite to Youth Academy Level

    Get PDF
    Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are used to evaluate the offensive success of a soccer team (e.g. penalty box entries) or player (e.g. pass completion rate). However, knowledge transfer from research to applied practice is understudied. The current study queried practitioners (n = 145, mean ± SD age: 36 ± 9 years) from 42 countries across different roles and levels of competition (National Team Federation to Youth Academy levels) on various forms of data collection, including an explicit assessment of twelve attacking KPIs. 64.3% of practitioners use data tools and applications weekly (predominately) to gather KPIs during matches. 83% of practitioners use event data compared to only 52% of practitioners using positional data, with a preference for shooting related KPIs. Differences in the use and value of metrics derived from positional tracking data (including Ball Possession Metrics) were evident between job role and level of competition. These findings demonstrate that practitioners implement KPIs and gather tactical information in a variety of ways with a preference for simpler metrics related to shots. The low perceived value of newer KPIs afforded by positional data could be explained by low buy-in, a lack of education across practitioners, or insufficient translation of findings by experts towards practice
    corecore