Integration of perception and reasoning in fast neural modules

Artificial neural systems promise to integrate symbolic and sub-symbolic processing to achieve real time control of physical systems. Two potential alternatives exist. In one, neural nets can be used to front-end expert systems. The expert systems, in turn, are developed with varying degrees of parallelism, including their implementation in neural nets. In the other, rule-based reasoning and sensor data can be integrated within a single hybrid neural system. The hybrid system reacts as a unit to provide decisions (problem solutions) based on the simultaneous evaluation of data and rules. Discussed here is a model hybrid system based on the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM). The operation of the model is illustrated with the control of a hypothetical satellite that intelligently alters its attitude in space in response to an intersecting micrometeorite shower

Study on Viral Transmission Impact on Human Population Using Fractional Order Zika Virus Model

This work comprises the spread of Zika virus between humans and mosquitoes as a mathematical simulation under fractional order, which also incorporates the asymptotically infected human population. For determining the solution of the model the fuzzy Laplace transform technique is utilized. By combining fuzzy logic with the Laplace transform, we can analyze systems even when we lack precise information. Further, the sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the model. On top of that the population dynamics of both human and mosquito populations are discussed using numerical data and the graphical result of the model is presented. The main objective of this work is to study the dynamics of the Zika virus and to examine the effect of virus on humans when the transmission occurs between humans and from mosquitoes, under fractional order. The outcome of these comparisons suggests that even by reducing a minute fractional part of transmission through mosquitoes results in a greater reduction of Zika exposed population. The comparisons improve the understanding of fractional level transmission resulting in more effective drug administration to patients. The Hyers-Ulam stability method is a mathematical technique used to study the stability of functional equations. Eventually, Ulam Hyers and Ulam Hyers Rassias stability are employed to assess the stability of the proposed model

Competition and Market Dynamics on the Russian Deposits Market

In the early transition era in Russia entry barriers for commercial banks were about absent. It resulted in the mushrooming of hundreds of small, poorly-endowed and inexperienced banks. In this paper we address the question whether the claimed benefits of low entry barriers - competition and market dynamics - have resulted. We use a sample of commercial saving banks for the 1994-97 period. We conclude that there were important mobility barriers and that the removal of entry barriers did not lead to intensified competition.market shares;banking;transition economies

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis of Power Transformer Based on Cloud Model of Weight

As the key component of a power system, the power transformer directly impacts the reliability and safety of the system. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a methodology used to analyze potential failure modes within a system and has been used extensively to examine the power transformer’s performance in various potential failure scenarios. However, the FMEA method has several flaws; for example, the non-differential analysis of evaluation index and the impossibility of evaluating the actual risk among risk priority number (RPN) values that on the surface are equal. The cloud model of weight incorporates the relative importance of index. This paper proposes applying FMEA based on the cloud model of weight to assess a power transformer for risk, and shows that this method can effectively overcome the defects of traditional FMEA assessment methods

¿Acciones o Palabras? Un Análisis de Intervención Cambiaria

Revisitamos una antigua pregunta, pero con una nueva estrategia de identificación, concretamente, la diferencia entre los efectos de las intervenciones cambiarias anunciadas (“vocales”) y secretas (“sucias”). Para esto estudiamos un mecanismo de intervención basado en reglas del Banco de la República que, bajo condiciones observables y deterministas, activó la emisión de opciones (call y put) o la capacidad de ejercerlas. Interpretamos la primera (emisión) como anuncios del Banco bajo un diseño de regresión discontinua sharp, ya que la regla y la información cambiaria que la activó eran públicas, e interpretamos los ejercicios de las opciones como operaciones secretas bajo un diseño de regresión discontinua fuzzy, ya que los agentes del mercado podían haber elegido (pero no estaban obligados) a ejercerlas en los días siguientes a su emisión. Nuestros resultados indican que, de forma no condicional, tanto los anuncios como la intervención secreta tienen efectos similares. Sin embargo, el impacto de los anuncios se amplifica cuando se condicionan a: (i) una alta credibilidad del banco central, (ii) anuncios menos frecuentes y (iii) episodios de mayor volatilidad cambiaria.We revisit an old question but with a new identification strategy, namely the difference in exchange rate effects between announced (“vocal”) and secret (“dirty”) foreign exchange intervention. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we exploit a rule-based intervention mechanism enacted by the Central Bank of Colombia that, under observable and deterministic conditions, triggered either the issuance of FX options or the ability to exercise them. We take the former (issuance) as central bank announcements under a sharp setting, since the rule and information that triggered the issuance of options was public, and we take the latter (exercise) as secret trades under a fuzzy setting, since traders could have chosen (but were not required) to exercise their options in the following days after issuance. Our results indicate that, unconditionally, both announcements and secret trades carry similar effects. However, the effects of announcements are considerably amplified conditional on: (i) higher central bank credibility, (ii) less frequent announcements, and (iii) episodes of higher FX volatility.Enfoque Existe un antiguo debate, sin un consenso definitivo, sobre la diferencia entre la efectividad de las intervenciones anunciadas versus las secretas. Nuestro documento se enfoca en esta discusión, utilizando una estrategia de identificación creíble que permite comparar ambos tipos de intervención de forma directa. Además, exploramos si estos efectos se amplifican con una mayor credibilidad del banco central, episodios de alta volatilidad cambiaria y factores de riesgo cambiario. Contribución Nuestra metodología, basada en un diseño de regresión discontinua, paga dividendos sobre la literatura relacionada, en parte porque eludimos la necesidad de estimar una función de reacción de política cambiaria. Además, argumentamos que nuestros resultados para anuncios e intervenciones secretas son comparables ya que usamos la misma identificación, muestra y contexto. En contraste, los trabajos existentes usualmente evalúan diferentes mecanismos de intervención, lo cual implica una comparación de los efectos menos directa y consistente. Resultados Nuestros resultados indican que, de forma no condicional, tanto los anuncios como la intervención secreta tienen efectos similares sobre la tasa de cambio. Sin embargo, los efectos de los anuncios se amplifican condicionando a: (i) mayor credibilidad del banco central, (ii) anuncios menos frecuentes, y (iii) episodios de mayor volatilidad cambiaria

Robust Adaptive Fuzzy Control for a Class of Switching Power Converters

This chapter provides the reader with a control-centric modeling and analysis approach along with a nonlinear control design for a class of switching power converters. A comprehensive model combining the respective state variable models of the interval subsystems is established. Comparison with PSpice simulation justifies the credibility of the model. Based on this model, internal/BIBO stability can be studied for each interval subsystem. Moreover, controllability and observability can also be analyzed to help determine subsequent control configuration. The established model is further investigated for advanced control design, i.e., robust adaptive fuzzy control

Measurements, Models, Systems and Design

531 s.

ECB Credibility and Transparency

This paper argues that ECB credibility in delivering price stability is being progressively eroded; this problem could be overcome by embracing greater transparency especially about the ECB's objectives, macroeconomic forecasts and decision-making. During the ECB's first decade, average inflation in the euro area has been low, but it has failed to meet the ECB's criterion of below but close to 2% over the medium term. Although this could be attributed to unanticipated shocks, the analysis in this paper points to some structural shortcomings. In particular, there has been an upward trend in medium and long term inflation expectations in the euro area, which have even reached over 2%, and the credibility of the ECB achieving price stability in the medium term has gradually eroded to critically low levels. In addition, there is evidence that medium and long term inflation expectations are negatively affected by the inflation experience of the euro area. However, this paper argues that these problems could be overcome embracing by greater transparency, especially about the ECB's objectives, macroeconomic forecasts and decision-making.ECB, monetary policy, inflation expectations, Geraats

Low rank surrogates for polymorphic fields with application to fuzzy-stochastic partial differential equations

We consider a general form of fuzzy-stochastic PDEs depending on the interaction of probabilistic and non-probabilistic ("possibilistic") influences. Such a combined modelling of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties for instance can be applied beneficially in an engineering context for real-world applications, where probabilistic modelling and expert knowledge has to be accounted for. We examine existence and well-definedness of polymorphic PDEs in appropriate function spaces. The fuzzy-stochastic dependence is described in a high-dimensional parameter space, thus easily leading to an exponential complexity in practical computations. To aleviate this severe obstacle in practise, a compressed low-rank approximation of the problem formulation and the solution is derived. This is based on the Hierarchical Tucker format which is constructed with solution samples by a non-intrusive tensor reconstruction algorithm. The performance of the proposed model order reduction approach is demonstrated with two examples. One of these is the ubiquitous groundwater flow model with Karhunen-Loeve coefficient field which is generalized by a fuzzy correlation length

Low rank surrogates for polymorphic fields with application to fuzzy-stochastic partial differential equations

We consider a general form of fuzzy-stochastic PDEs depending on the interaction of probabilistic and non-probabilistic ("possibilistic") influences. Such a combined modelling of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties for instance can be applied beneficially in an engineering context for real-world applications, where probabilistic modelling and expert knowledge has to be accounted for. We examine existence and well-definedness of polymorphic PDEs in appropriate function spaces. The fuzzy-stochastic dependence is described in a high-dimensional parameter space, thus easily leading to an exponential complexity in practical computations. To aleviate this severe obstacle in practise, a compressed low-rank approximation of the problem formulation and the solution is derived. This is based on the Hierarchical Tucker format which is constructed with solution samples by a non-intrusive tensor reconstruction algorithm. The performance of the proposed model order reduction approach is demonstrated with two examples. One of these is the ubiquitous groundwater flow model with Karhunen-Loeve coefficient field which is generalized by a fuzzy correlation length