Can a change in cropping patterns produce water savings and social gains: A case study from the Fergana Valley, Central Asia

Abstract The study examines possible water savings by replacing alfalfa with winter wheat in the Fergana Valley, located upstream of the Syrdarya River in Central Asia. Agricultural reforms since the 1990s have promoted this change in cropping patterns in the Central Asian states to enhance food security and social benefits. The water use of alfalfa, winter wheat/fallow, and winter wheat/green gram (double cropping) systems is compared for high-deficit, low-deficit, and full irrigation scenarios using hydrological modeling with the HYDRUS-1D software package. Modeling results indicate that replacing alfalfa with winter wheat in the Fergana Valley released significant water resources, mainly by reducing productive crop transpiration when abandoning alfalfa in favor of alternative cropping systems. However, the winter wheat/fallow cropping system caused high evaporation losses from fallow land after harvesting of winter wheat. Double cropping (i.e., the cultivation of green gram as a short duration summer crop after winter wheat harvesting) reduced evaporation losses, enhanced crop output and hence food security, while generating water savings that make more water available for other productive uses. Beyond water savings, this paper also discusses the economic and social gains that double cropping produces for the public within a broader developmental context

Economic Determinants of the Optimal Retirement Age: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines how the structure of earnings and pension opportunities affects retirement behavior. We use a life cycle model of labor supply, paying special attention to the institutional features of private pensions and Social Security benefits. This theoretical formulation is used to develop comparative dynamic pre- dictions and to guide empirical modeling. Data from a new survey of workers and their income alternatives are used to implement the empirical model. Along the way, we highlight a number of interesting and little known facts about older workers' income. Contrary to popular opinion we find that private pensions are not always actuarially neutral; Social Security benefits do not typically decline (in present value terms) the longer retirement is deferred; and for many people, retirement income approaches and even exceeds net labor income. On the basis of empirical estimates of retirement parameters, we conclude that (1) people with higher base incomes retire earlier, and (2) those who have more to gain by postponing retirement, retire later. These findings are relevant to proposed reforms of the Social Security system as well as pension programs.

User's Privacy in Recommendation Systems Applying Online Social Network Data, A Survey and Taxonomy

Recommender systems have become an integral part of many social networks and extract knowledge from a user's personal and sensitive data both explicitly, with the user's knowledge, and implicitly. This trend has created major privacy concerns as users are mostly unaware of what data and how much data is being used and how securely it is used. In this context, several works have been done to address privacy concerns for usage in online social network data and by recommender systems. This paper surveys the main privacy concerns, measurements and privacy-preserving techniques used in large-scale online social networks and recommender systems. It is based on historical works on security, privacy-preserving, statistical modeling, and datasets to provide an overview of the technical difficulties and problems associated with privacy preserving in online social networks.Comment: 26 pages, IET book chapter on big data recommender system

Wording optimization tasks on risk management by simulation in the CoC QUASAR

The article reveals the possibility of solving optimization tasks for security risk management in a specific social system. The application of modern technological solutions to support the assessments contributes to the assessment objectification and the scenarios based methods application. The modeling of security processes and their reproduction, including repeatedly in a simulation environment can be used to solve optimization tasks to ensure security. The optimization task for security risk management has been formulated as methodology for solving the problems in the laboratories of work package "Risk Management" of the Center for Competence QUASAR

APAKAH MODEL DELONE DAN MCLEAN MAMPU MENJELASKAN KEBERHASILAN SISTEM INFORMASI JKN MOBILE ?

We investigate the Delone & Mclean success system model on JKN-Mobile in the Indonesian Social Security Provider for Health - BPJS. The research was conducted through a direct survey of users of the JKN mobile system to the Health Social Security Administrators at the Semarang City Office. The data is processed using Structural Equation Modeling, namely the SmartPLS application. The results showed that the quality of JKN Mobile services affected the system to use. User satisfaction is determined by the quality of information, system quality, and service quality of the JKN Mobile system, which affects the benefits of the JKN Mobile system. This study has contributed to the success of the system at the success model JKN mobile applications used extensively and intensively

An Analytical Methodology To Security Constraints Management In Power System Operation

In a deregulated electricity market, Independent System Operators (ISOs) are responsible for dispatching power to the load securely, efficiently, and economically. ISO performs Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) to guarantee sufficient generation commitment, maximized social welfare and facilitating market-driven economics. A large number of security constraints would render the model impossible to solve under time requirements. Developing a method to identify the minimum set of security constraints without overcommitting is necessary to reduce Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) solution time. To overcome this challenge, we developed a powerful tool called security constraint screening. The proposed approach effectively filters out non-dominating constraints by integrating virtual transactions and capturing changes online in real-time or look-ahead markets. The security-constraint screening takes advantage of both deterministic and statistical methods, which leverages mathematical modeling and historical data. Effectiveness is verified using Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) data. The research also presented a data-driven approach to forecast congestion patterns in real-time utilizing machine learning applications. Studies have been conducted using real-world data. The potential benefit is to provide the day-ahead operators with a tool for supporting decision-making regarding modeling constraints

Institutional forms of industrial safety of the state

In this article, the state of Russian industry for 2014-2017 is analyzed. The system of basic indicators for assessing the level of industrial security based on the structure of national institutions is proposed. The role of the institutional environment in ensuring the industrial security of the country is presented and the principles for building an effective institutional platform are defined. The structure of the institutional mechanism for the development of the industry is proposed on the basis of a system of form-building components: regulatory, financial, social, foreign economic. As the basic methods are used the method of comparative analysis, the method of factor analysis, econometric modeling, matrix modeling. For each component, a number of quantitative indicators have been identified for the evaluation and analysis of the level of industrial development. Quantitative assessment allows us to present the qualitative side of the process of institutionalization in the relevant branch – industry. The basic algorithm of calculation is a process of three stages: the calculation of specific (share) indicators, intensive (tempo) and integral. The integrated indicator serves as a general indicator of the level of effectiveness of the institutional system of industrial security of the country. Based on the analysis of the development of the industry, a mechanism is proposed for the institutional functioning of the country's industry

Faktor-faktor yang Memengaruhi Pengambilan Keputusan Terhadap Klaim Jaminan Hari Tua: Factors Affecting Decision Making Against an Old Age Benefit Claim

The tendency of early claim insurance for old age benefit (JHT) causes concerns in the social security system in Indonesia because it can eliminate regeneration in old age and reduce the living standards of the elderly. This study aims to analyze the influence of participants regarding the perception of JHT policy, participants trust information intervention, social security literacy, and financial literacy on the decision to postpone JHT's claims. The design of this study is a quantitative and cross-sectional study to analyze various variables in the study. The sample was determined by random sampling, with 229 respondents being active participants of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan but were detected to have made JHT claims before. Google Form is used to collect questionnaire data that is further analyzed descriptively and using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with the help of SMARTPLS software. Analysis using SMARTPLS obtains findings that variables that significantly positively affect decisions to delay claims are perception variables regarding policies, trust, information interventions, and social security literacy. Whereas financial literacy has no significant effect on the decision to postpone claims. Furthermore, BPJS Ketenagakerjaan as Indonesian social security bodies needs to conduct massive socialization and education to increase participants' trust and knowledge about the benefits of the JHT program if deposited so that JHT can return to the proper philosophy. Keywords: decision making, employment social security, information intervention, policy perceptio

Enforcing role-based access control in a social network

Social networks supply a means by which people can communicate with each other while allowing for ease in initiating interaction and expressions. These systems of human collaboration may also be used to store and distribute information of a sensitive nature that must be secured against intrusions at all times. Given the massive operation embodied by social networks, multiple methods have been developed that control the flow of information so that those with authorization can gain access. Before allowing a social network to begin distributing its contents, a prudent prerequisite should be that the security protocols prevent unauthorized access.   Formal modeling and analysis of security properties, particularly those of Role-Based Access Control (RBAC), in social networks is the main focus of this thesis. A social network system and its security assurance mechanisms are modeled using the input language of Symbolic Model Verifier (SMV), and the properties of the system are specified using computation tree temporal logic (CTL*). Those properties are then verified using the SMV model checker. A real case was studied to demonstrate the effectiveness of model checking security properties in a social network system. The case consists of an account in which a group of users share various resources and access privileges which are controlled by RBAC. The case study results show that model checking is capable of formally analyzing security policies particularly RBAC in a social network system. In addition, the counter examples generated from model checking could help to create test cases for testing system implementation, and they can help us to find defects in the model as well. Formally modeling and model checking security policies in a complex system, like a social network, can greatly improve the security of these systems.  M.S

Introduction of Progressive Expenditure Taxation to Japan

With a population that is aging faster than any other in the world, Japan faces serious public finance problems, particularly when it comes to tax and social security issues. The structural reforms are urgently needed to accommodate the impending demographic change. We look at the Japanese tax and social security systems through a life−cycle general equilibrium simulation model. We aim to establish guidelines for fiscal reform in Japan’s graying society and use such advanced modeling techniques to permit the calculation of the effects of alternative tax policies on capital accumulation and economic welfare. We also examine the impact of progressive expenditure taxation, coming to the novel conclusion that this form of taxation may hold the key to overcoming the large welfare loss Japan faces as its society ages under the current tax system. Furthermore, we present the concrete measures of implementing progressive expenditure taxation