Dynamic state reconciliation and model-based fault detection for chemical processes

In this paper, we present a method for the fault detection based on the residual generation. The main idea is to reconstruct the outputs of the system from the measurements using the extended Kalman filter. The estimations are compared to the values of the reference model and so, deviations are interpreted as possible faults. The reference model is simulated by the dynamic hybrid simulator, PrODHyS. The use of this method is illustrated through an application in the field of chemical processe

Integration of a failure monitoring within a hybrid dynamic simulation environment

The complexity and the size of the industrial chemical processes induce the monitoring of a growing number of process variables. Their knowledge is generally based on the measurements of system variables and on the physico-chemical models of the process. Nevertheless this information is imprecise because of process and measurement noise. So the research ways aim at developing new and more powerful techniques for the detection of process fault. In this work, we present a method for the fault detection based on the comparison between the real system and the reference model evolution generated by the extended Kalman filter. The reference model is simulated by the dynamic hybrid simulator, PrODHyS. It is a general object-oriented environment which provides common and reusable components designed for the development and the management of dynamic simulation of industrial systems. The use of this method is illustrated through a didactic example relating to the field of Chemical Process System Engineering

An agent-based simulator for quantifying the cost of uncertainty in production systems

Product-mix problems, where a range of products that generate different incomes compete for a limited set of production resources, are key to the success of many organisations. In their deterministic forms, these are simple optimisation problems; however, the consideration of stochasticity may turn them into analytically and/or computationally intractable problems. Thus, simulation becomes a powerful approach for providing efficient solutions to real-world productmix problems. In this paper, we develop a simulator for exploring the cost of uncertainty in these production systems using Petri nets and agent-based techniques. Specifically, we implement a stochastic version of Goldratt’s PQ problem that incorporates uncertainty in the volume and mix of customer demand. Through statistics, we derive regression models that link the net profit to the level of variability in the volume and mix. While the net profit decreases as uncertainty grows, we find that the system is able to effectively accommodate a certain level of variability when using a Drum-Buffer-Rope mechanism. In this regard, we reveal that the system is more robust to mix than to volume uncertainty. Later, we analyse the cost-benefit trade-off of uncertainty reduction, which has important implications for professionals. This analysis may help them optimise the profitability of investments. In this regard, we observe that mitigating volume uncertainty should be given higher consideration when the costs of reducing variability are low, while the efforts are best concentrated on alleviating mix uncertainty under high costs.This article was financially supported by the State Research Agency of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/50110 0 011033), via the project SPUR, with grant ref. PID2020–117021GB-I00. In addition, the authors greatly appreciate the valuable and constructive feedback received from the Editorial team of this journal and two anonymous reviewers in the different stages of the review process

SIMULATING EXOGENOUS SHOCKS IN COMPLEX SUPPLY NETWORKS USING MODULAR STOCHASTIC PETRI NETS

Almost all major companies are embedded in complex, global supply networks, consisting of multiple nested supply chains, and building up a high level of complexity. Exogenous shocks on these networks (e.g. natural disasters) can directly and indirectly impact companies and even cause their entire supply network to fail. However, today it is extremely difficult for a company to predict the actual impact of an exogenous shock on its supply network. Hence, companies are not able to identify adequate counteractive measures. Therefore safeguarding measures are oftentimes insufficient or even counterproductive. This paper deals with modelling, analyzing and quantifying impacts of exogenous shocks on supply networks using Petri Nets. It provides means to simulate the vulnerability of different network constellations regarding exogenous influences. In order to evaluate the proposed method, we simulate different intensities of an exogenous shock delaying the delivery for an exemplary supply network. We thereby illustrate which results could be yielded from a real-world application. For our exemplary network we find that the marginal effect of a disruption declines with an increasing intensity of shock. Moreover, the impact of shocks can be mitigated by appropriate counteractive measures like in this example by an increased safety margin of stock

Petri-Net Simulation Model of a Nuclear Component Degradation Process

International audienceMulti physical state modeling (MPSM) is a novel approach being investigated for estimating the reliability of components and systems in the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The approach integrates multi-state modeling, which describes the degradation process by transitions among discrete states (e.g. initial, micro-crack, rupture, etc) and physical modeling by (physical) equations that govern the degradation process. In practice, the degradation process is non-Markovian and its transition rates are time-dependent and influenced by external factors such as temperature and stress. Under these conditions, it is in general difficult to derive the state probabilities analytically. On the contrary, Petri nets provide a flexible modeling framework for describing degradation processes with arbitrary transition rates. In this paper, we build a Petri net in support of Monte Carlo simulation of the stochastic aging behavior of a nuclear component undergoing stress corrosion cracking. The results are compared with analytical results derived in a previous work of literature

Scheduling of offshore wind farm installation using simulated annealing

This paper focuses on the scheduling problem in the offshore wind farm installation process, which is strongly influenced by the offshore weather condition. Due to the nature of the offshore weather condition, i.e., partially predictable and uncontrollable, it is urgent to find a way to schedule the offshore installation process effectively and economically. For this purpose, this work presents a model based on Timed Petri Nets (TPN) approach for the offshore installation process and applies simulated annealing algorithm to find the optimal schedule

INTEGRATED DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ANALYSIS: CONCEPTS, CHALLENGES, RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

International audienceIntegrated deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis (IDPSA) is conceived as a way to analyze the evolution of accident scenarios in complex dynamic systems, like nuclear, aerospace and process ones, accounting for the mutual interactions between the failure and recovery of system components, the evolving physical processes, the control and operator actions, the software and firmware. In spite of the potential offered by IDPSA, several challenges need to be effectively addressed for its development and practical deployment. In this paper, we give an overview of these and discuss the related implications in terms of research perspectives