Detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems

Some of the basic ideas associated with the detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems are presented. Multiple filter-based techniques and residual-based method and the multiple model and generalized likelihood ratio methods are considered. Issues such as the effect of unknown onset time on algorithm complexity and structure and robustness to model uncertainty are discussed

A survey of design methods for failure detection in dynamic systems

A number of methods for the detection of abrupt changes (such as failures) in stochastic dynamical systems were surveyed. The class of linear systems were emphasized, but the basic concepts, if not the detailed analyses, carry over to other classes of systems. The methods surveyed range from the design of specific failure-sensitive filters, to the use of statistical tests on filter innovations, to the development of jump process formulations. Tradeoffs in complexity versus performance are discussed

Bayesian Nonparametric Hidden Semi-Markov Models

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are undesirable, particularly if we wish to learn or encode non-geometric state durations. We can extend the HDP-HMM to capture such structure by drawing upon explicit-duration semi-Markovianity, which has been developed mainly in the parametric frequentist setting, to allow construction of highly interpretable models that admit natural prior information on state durations. In this paper we introduce the explicit-duration Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden semi-Markov Model (HDP-HSMM) and develop sampling algorithms for efficient posterior inference. The methods we introduce also provide new methods for sampling inference in the finite Bayesian HSMM. Our modular Gibbs sampling methods can be embedded in samplers for larger hierarchical Bayesian models, adding semi-Markov chain modeling as another tool in the Bayesian inference toolbox. We demonstrate the utility of the HDP-HSMM and our inference methods on both synthetic and real experiments

Dirichlet Posterior Sampling with Truncated Multinomial Likelihoods

We consider the problem of drawing samples from posterior distributions formed under a Dirichlet prior and a truncated multinomial likelihood, by which we mean a Multinomial likelihood function where we condition on one or more counts being zero a priori. Sampling this posterior distribution is of interest in inference algorithms for hierarchical Bayesian models based on the Dirichlet distribution or the Dirichlet process, particularly Gibbs sampling algorithms for the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Semi-Markov Model. We provide a data augmentation sampling algorithm that is easy to implement, fast both to mix and to execute, and easily scalable to many dimensions. We demonstrate the algorithm's advantages over a generic Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm in several numerical experiments

Sequential Compressed Sensing

Compressed sensing allows perfect recovery of sparse signals (or signals sparse in some basis) using only a small number of random measurements. Existing results in compressed sensing literature have focused on characterizing the achievable performance by bounding the number of samples required for a given level of signal sparsity. However, using these bounds to minimize the number of samples requires a-priori knowledge of the sparsity of the unknown signal, or the decay structure for near-sparse signals. Furthermore, there are some popular recovery methods for which no such bounds are known. In this paper, we investigate an alternative scenario where observations are available in sequence. For any recovery method, this means that there is now a sequence of candidate reconstructions. We propose a method to estimate the reconstruction error directly from the samples themselves, for every candidate in this sequence. This estimate is universal in the sense that it is based only on the measurement ensemble, and not on the recovery method or any assumed level of sparsity of the unknown signal. With these estimates, one can now stop observations as soon as there is reasonable certainty of either exact or sufficiently accurate reconstruction. They also provide a way to obtain "run-time" guarantees for recovery methods that otherwise lack a-priori performance bounds. We investigate both continuous (e.g. Gaussian) and discrete (e.g. Bernoulli) random measurement ensembles, both for exactly sparse and general near-sparse signals, and with both noisy and noiseless measurements.Comment: to appear in IEEE transactions on Special Topics in Signal Processin

Learning Gaussian Graphical Models with Observed or Latent FVSs

Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) or Gauss Markov random fields are widely used in many applications, and the trade-off between the modeling capacity and the efficiency of learning and inference has been an important research problem. In this paper, we study the family of GGMs with small feedback vertex sets (FVSs), where an FVS is a set of nodes whose removal breaks all the cycles. Exact inference such as computing the marginal distributions and the partition function has complexity $O(k^{2}n)$ using message-passing algorithms, where k is the size of the FVS, and n is the total number of nodes. We propose efficient structure learning algorithms for two cases: 1) All nodes are observed, which is useful in modeling social or flight networks where the FVS nodes often correspond to a small number of high-degree nodes, or hubs, while the rest of the networks is modeled by a tree. Regardless of the maximum degree, without knowing the full graph structure, we can exactly compute the maximum likelihood estimate in $O(kn^2+n^2\log n)$ if the FVS is known or in polynomial time if the FVS is unknown but has bounded size. 2) The FVS nodes are latent variables, where structure learning is equivalent to decomposing a inverse covariance matrix (exactly or approximately) into the sum of a tree-structured matrix and a low-rank matrix. By incorporating efficient inference into the learning steps, we can obtain a learning algorithm using alternating low-rank correction with complexity $O(kn^{2}+n^{2}\log n)$ per iteration. We also perform experiments using both synthetic data as well as real data of flight delays to demonstrate the modeling capacity with FVSs of various sizes

Control optimization, stabilization and computer algorithms for aircraft applications

The analysis and design of complex multivariable reliable control systems are considered. High performance and fault tolerant aircraft systems are the objectives. A preliminary feasibility study of the design of a lateral control system for a VTOL aircraft that is to land on a DD963 class destroyer under high sea state conditions is provided. Progress in the following areas is summarized: (1) VTOL control system design studies; (2) robust multivariable control system synthesis; (3) adaptive control systems; (4) failure detection algorithms; and (5) fault tolerant optimal control theory

Estimation for bilinear stochastic systems

Three techniques for the solution of bilinear estimation problems are presented. First, finite dimensional optimal nonlinear estimators are presented for certain bilinear systems evolving on solvable and nilpotent lie groups. Then the use of harmonic analysis for estimation problems evolving on spheres and other compact manifolds is investigated. Finally, an approximate estimation technique utilizing cumulants is discussed