A Real-Time Electrical Load Forecasting in Jordan Using an Enhanced Evolutionary Feedforward Neural Network

Power system planning and expansion start with forecasting the anticipated future load requirement. Load forecasting is essential for the engineering perspective and a financial perspective. It effectively plays a vital role in the conventional monopolistic operation and electrical utility planning to enhance power system operation, security, stability, minimization of operation cost, and zero emissions. TwoWell-developed cases are discussed here to quantify the benefits of additional models, observation, resolution, data type, and how data are necessary for the perception and evolution of the electrical load forecasting in Jordan. Actual load data for more than a year is obtained from the leading electricity company in Jordan. These cases are based on total daily demand and hourly daily demand. This work’s main aim is for easy and accurate computation of week ahead electrical system load forecasting based on Jordan’s current load measurements. The uncertainties in forecasting have the potential to waste money and resources. This research proposes an optimized multi-layered feed-forward neural network using the recent Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The problem of power forecasting is formulated as a minimization problem. The experimental results are compared with popular optimization methods and show that the proposed method provides very competitive forecasting results

A novel hybrid metaheuristic algorithm for short term load forecasting

Electric load forecasting is undeniably a demanding business due to its complexity and high nonlinearity features. It is regarded as vital in electricity industry and critical for the party of interest as it provides useful support in power system management. Despite the aforementioned situation, a reliable forecasting accuracy is essential for efficient future planning and maximize the profits of stakeholders as well. With respect to that matter, this study presents a hybrid Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM) with a rather new Swarm Intelligence (SI) algorithm namely Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). Act as an optimization tool for LSSVM hyper parameters, the inducing of GWO assists the LSSVM in achieving optimality, hence good generalization in forecasting can be achieved. Later, the efficiency of GWO-LSSVM is compared against three comparable hybrid algorithms namely LSSVM optimized by Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), Differential Evolution (DE) and Firefly Algorithms (FA). Findings of the study revealed that, by producing lower Root Mean Square Percentage Error (RMSPE), the GWO-LSSVM is able to outperform the identified algorithms for the data set of interest

A framework-based wind forecasting to assess wind potential with improved grey wolf optimization and support vector regression

Wind energy is one of the most promising alternates of fossil fuels because of its abundant availability, low cost, and pollution-free attributes. Wind potential estimation, wind forecasting, and effective wind-energy management are the critical factors in planning and managing wind farms connected to wind-pooling substations. Hence, this study proposes a hybrid framework-based approach for wind-resource estimation and forecasting, namely IGWO-SVR (improved grey wolf optimization method (IGWO)-support vector regression (SVR)) for a real-time power pooling substation. The wind resource assessment and behavioral wind analysis has been carried out with the proposed IGWO-SVR optimization method for hourly, daily, monthly, and annual cases using 40 years of ERA (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis) data along with the impact of the El Niño effect. First, wind reassessment is carried out considering the impact of El Niño, wind speed, power, pressure, and temperature of the selected site Radhapuram substation in Tamilnadu, India and reported extensively. In addition, statistical analysis and wind distribution fitting are performed to demonstrate the seasonal effect. Then the proposed model is adopted for wind speed forecasting based on the dataset. From the results, the proposed model offered the best assessment report and predicted the wind behavior with greater accuracy using evaluation metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean squared error (MSE). For short-term wind speed, power, and El Niño forecasting, IGWO-SVR optimization effectively outperforms other existing models. This method can be adapted effectively in any potential locations for wind resource assessment and forecasting needs for better renewable energy management by power utilities

Adaptive Grey Wolf Optimization Technique for Stock Index Price Prediction on Recurring Neural Network Variants

In this paper, we propose a Long short-term memory (LSTM) and Adaptive Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO)--based hybrid model for predicting the stock prices of the Major Indian stock indices, i.e., Sensex. The LSTM is an advanced neural network that handles uncertain, nonlinear, and sequential data. The challenges are its weight and bias optimization. The classical backpropagation has issues of dangling on local minima or overfitting the dataset. Thus, we propose a GWO-based hybrid approach to evolve the weights and biases of the LSTM and the dense layers. We have made the GWO more robust by introducing an approach to improve the best possible solution by using the optimal ranking of the wolves. The proposed model combines the GWO with Adam Optimizer to train the LSTM. Apart from the LSTM, we have also implemented the Adaptive GWO on other variants of Recurring Neural Networks (RNN) like LSTM, Bi-Directional LSTM, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Bi-Directional GRU and computed the corresponding results. The Adaptive GWO here evolves the initial weights and biases of the above-discussed neural networks. In this research, we have also compared the forecasting efficiency of our proposed work with a particle-warm optimization (PSO) based hybrid LSTM model, simple Grey-wolf Optimization (GWO), and Adaptive PSO. According to the experimental findings, the suggested model has effectively used the best initial weights, and its results are the best overall

Prediction of wear rates of UHMWPE bearing in hip joint prosthesis with support vector model and grey wolf optimization

One of the greatest challenges in joint arthroplasty is to enhance the wear resistance of ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE), which is one of the most successful polymers as acetabular bearings for total hip joint prosthesis. In order to improve UHMWPE wear rates, it is necessary to develop efficient methods to predict its wear rates in various conditions and therefore help in improving its wear resistance, mechanical properties, and increasing its life span inside the body. This article presents a support vector machine using a grey wolf optimizer (SVM-GWO) hybrid regression model to predict the wear rates of UHMWPE based on published polyethylene data from pin on disc (PoD) wear experiments typically performed in the field of prosthetic hip implants. The dataset was an aggregate of 29 different PoD UHMWPE datasets collected from Google Scholar and PubMed databases, and it consisted of 129 data points. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values were used to interpret the presented model to identify the most important and decisive parameters that affect the wear rates of UHMWPE and, therefore, predict its wear behavior inside the body under different conditions. The results revealed that radiation doses had the highest impact on the model’s prediction, where high values of radiation doses had a negative impact on the model output. The pronounced effect of irradiation doses and surface roughness on the wear rates of polyethylene was clear in the results when average disc surface roughness (Ra) values were below 0.05 μm, and irradiation doses were above 95 kGy produced 0 mg/MC wear rate. The proposed model proved to be a reliable and robust model for the prediction of wear rates and prioritizing factors that most significantly affect its wear rates. The proposed model can help material engineers to further design polyethylene acetabular linings via improving the wear resistance and minimizing the necessity for wear experiments

Evolving CNN-LSTM Models for Time Series Prediction Using Enhanced Grey Wolf Optimizer

In this research, we propose an enhanced Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) for designing the evolving Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) networks for time series analysis. To overcome the probability of stagnation at local optima and a slow convergence rate of the classical GWO algorithm, the newly proposed variant incorporates four distinctive search mechanisms. They comprise a nonlinear exploration scheme for dynamic search territory adjustment, a chaotic leadership dispatching strategy among the dominant wolves, a rectified spiral local exploitation action, as well as probability distribution-based leader enhancement. The evolving CNN-LSTM models are subsequently devised using the proposed GWO variant, where the network topology and learning hyperparameters are optimized for time series prediction and classification tasks. Evaluated using a number of benchmark problems, the proposed GWO-optimized CNN-LSTM models produce statistically significant results over those from several classical search methods and advanced GWO and Particle Swarm Optimization variants. Comparing with the baseline methods, the CNN-LSTM networks devised by the proposed GWO variant offer better representational capacities to not only capture the vital feature interactions, but also encapsulate the sophisticated dependencies in complex temporal contexts for undertaking time-series tasks

HOME ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR DEMAND RESPONSE PURPOSES

The growing demand for electricity has led to increasing efforts to generate and satisfy the rising demand. This led to suppliers attempting to reduce consumption with the help of the users. Requests to shift unnecessary loads off the peak hours, using other sources of generators to supply the grid while offering incentives to the users have made a significant effect. Furthermore, automated solutions were implemented with the help of Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS) where the user can remotely manage household loads to reduce consumption or cost. Demand Response (DR) is the process of reducing power consumption in a response to demand signals generated by the utility based on many factors such as the Time of Use (ToU) prices. Automated HEMS use load scheduling techniques to control house appliances in response to DR signals. Scheduling can be purely user-dependent or fully automated with minimum effort from the user. This thesis presents a HEMS which automatically schedules appliances around the house to reduce the cost to the minimum. The main contributions in this thesis are the house controller model which models a variety of thermal loads in addition to two shiftable loads, and the optimizer which schedules the loads to reduce the cost depending on the DR signals. The controllers focus on the thermal loads since they have the biggest effect on the electricity bill, they also consider many factors ignored in similar models such as the physical properties of the room/medium, the outer temperatures, the comfort levels of the users, and the occupancy of the house during scheduling. The DR signal was the hourly electricity price; normally higher during the peak hours. Another main part of the thesis was studying multiple optimization algorithms and utilizing them to get the optimum scheduling. Results showed a maximum of 44% cost reduction using different metaheuristic optimization algorithms and different price and occupancy schemes

Inductive Transfer and Deep Neural Network Learning-Based Cross-Model Method for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Smarts Grids

In a real-world scenario of load forecasting, it is crucial to determine the energy consumption in electrical networks. The energy consumption data exhibit high variability between historical data and newly arriving data streams. To keep the forecasting models updated with the current trends, it is important to fine-tune the models in a timely manner. This article proposes a reliable inductive transfer learning (ITL) method, to use the knowledge from existing deep learning (DL) load forecasting models, to innovatively develop highly accurate ITL models at a large number of other distribution nodes reducing model training time. The outlier-insensitive clustering-based technique is adopted to group similar distribution nodes into clusters. ITL is considered in the setting of homogeneous inductive transfer. To solve overfitting that exists with ITL, a novel weight regularized optimization approach is implemented. The proposed novel cross-model methodology is evaluated on a real-world case study of 1000 distribution nodes of an electrical grid for one-day ahead hourly forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate that overfitting and negative learning in ITL can be avoided by the dissociated weight regularization (DWR) optimizer and that the proposed methodology delivers a reduction in training time by almost 85.6% and has no noticeable accuracy losses.Peer reviewe

A State-of-the-Art Review of Time Series Forecasting Using Deep Learning Approaches

Time series forecasting has recently emerged as a crucial study area with a wide spectrum of real-world applications. The complexity of data processing originates from the amount of data processed in the digital world. Despite a long history of successful time-series research using classic statistical methodologies, there are some limits in dealing with an enormous amount of data and non-linearity. Deep learning techniques effectually handle the complicated nature of time series data. The effective analysis of deep learning approaches like Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long short-term memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Autoencoders, and other techniques like attention mechanism, transfer learning, and dimensionality reduction are discussed with their merits and limitations. The performance evaluation metrics used to validate the model's accuracy are discussed. This paper reviews various time series applications using deep learning approaches with their benefits, challenges, and opportunities

An innovative metaheuristic strategy for solar energy management through a neural networks framework

Proper management of solar energy as an effective renewable source is of high importance toward sustainable energy harvesting. This paper offers a novel sophisticated method for predicting solar irradiance (SIr) from environmental conditions. To this end, an efficient metaheuristic technique, namely electromagnetic field optimization (EFO), is employed for optimizing a neural network. This algorithm quickly mines a publicly available dataset for nonlinearly tuning the network parameters. To suggest an optimal configuration, five influential parameters of the EFO are optimized by an extensive trial and error practice. Analyzing the results showed that the proposed model can learn the SIr pattern and predict it for unseen conditions with high accuracy. Furthermore, it provided about 10% and 16% higher accuracy compared to two benchmark optimizers, namely shuffled complex evolution and shuffled frog leaping algorithm. Hence, the EFO-supervised neural network can be a promising tool for the early prediction of SIr in practice. The findings of this research may shed light on the use of advanced intelligent models for efficient energy development