Resolving Over-constrained Probabilistic Temporal Problems through Chance Constraint Relaxation

When scheduling tasks for field-deployable systems, our solutions must be robust to the uncertainty inherent in the real world. Although human intuition is trusted to balance reward and risk, humans perform poorly in risk assessment at the scale and complexity of real world problems. In this paper, we present a decision aid system that helps human operators diagnose the source of risk and manage uncertainty in temporal problems. The core of the system is a conflict-directed relaxation algorithm, called Conflict-Directed Chance-constraint Relaxation (CDCR), which specializes in resolving over-constrained temporal problems with probabilistic durations and a chance constraint bounding the risk of failure. Given a temporal problem with uncertain duration, CDCR proposes execution strategies that operate at acceptable risk levels and pinpoints the source of risk. If no such strategy can be found that meets the chance constraint, it can help humans to repair the over-constrained problem by trading off between desirability of solution and acceptable risk levels. The decision aid has been incorporated in a mission advisory system for assisting oceanographers to schedule activities in deep-sea expeditions, and demonstrated its effectiveness in scenarios with realistic uncertaintyBoeing Company (Grant MIT-BA-GTA-1

Optimising Flexibility of Temporal Problems with Uncertainty

Temporal networks have been applied in many autonomous systems. In real situations, we cannot ignore the uncertain factors when using those autonomous systems. Achieving robust schedules and temporal plans by optimising flexibility to tackle the uncertainty is the motivation of the thesis. This thesis focuses on the optimisation problems of temporal networks with uncertainty and controllable options in the field of Artificial Intelligence Planning and Scheduling. The goal of this thesis is to construct flexibility and robustness metrics for temporal networks under the constraints of different levels of controllability. Furthermore, optimising flexibility for temporal plans and schedules to achieve robust solutions with flexible executions. When solving temporal problems with uncertainty, postponing decisions according to the observations of uncertain events enables flexible strategies as the solutions instead of fixed schedules or plans. Among the three levels of controllability of the Simple Temporal Problem with Uncertainty (STPU), a problem is dynamically controllable if there is a successful dynamic strategy such that every decision in it is made according to the observations of past events. In the thesis, we make the following contributions. (1) We introduce an optimisation model for STPU based on the existing dynamic controllability checking algorithms. Some flexibility and robustness measures are introduced based on the model. (2) We extend the definition and verification algorithm of dynamic controllability to temporal problems with controllable discrete variables and uncertainty, which is called Controllable Conditional Temporal Problems with Uncertainty (CCTPU). An entirely dynamically controllable strategy of CCTPU consists of both temporal scheduling and variable assignments being dynamically decided, which maximize the flexibility of the execution. (3) We introduce optimisation models of CCTPU under fully dynamic controllability. The optimisation models aim to answer the questions how flexible, robust or controllable a schedule or temporal plan is. The experiments show that making decisions dynamically can achieve better objective values than doing statically. The thesis also contributes to the field of AI planning and scheduling by introducing robustness metrics of temporal networks, proposing an envelope-based algorithm that can check dynamic controllability of temporal networks with uncertainty and controllable discrete decisions, evaluating improvements from making decisions strongly controllable to temporally dynamically controllable and fully dynamically controllable and comparing the runtime of different implementations to present the scalability of dynamically controllable strategies

Resolving Over-Constrained Temporal Problems with Uncertainty through Conflict-Directed Relaxation

Over-subscription, that is, being assigned too many things to do, is commonly encountered in temporal scheduling problems. As human beings, we often want to do more than we can actually do, and underestimate how long it takes to perform each task. Decision makers can benefit from aids that identify when these failure situations are likely, the root causes of these failures, and resolutions to these failures. In this paper, we present a decision assistant that helps users resolve over-subscribed temporal problems. The system works like an experienced advisor that can quickly identify the cause of failure underlying temporal problems and compute resolutions. The core of the decision assistant is the Best-first Conflict-Directed Relaxation (BCDR) algorithm, which can detect conflicting sets of constraints within temporal problems, and computes continuous relaxations for them that weaken constraints to the minimum extent, instead of removing them completely. BCDR is an extension to the Conflict-Directed A* algorithm, first developed in the model-based reasoning community to compute most likely system diagnoses or reconfigurations. It generalizes the discrete conflicts and relaxations, to hybrid conflicts and relaxations, which denote minimal inconsistencies and minimal relaxations to both discrete and continuous relaxable constraints. In addition, BCDR is capable of handling temporal uncertainty, expressed as either set-bounded or probabilistic durations, and can compute preferred trade-offs between the risk of violating a schedule requirement, versus the loss of utility by weakening those requirements. BCDR has been applied to several decision support applications in different domains, including deep-sea exploration, urban travel planning and transit system management. It has demonstrated its effectiveness in helping users resolve over-subscribed scheduling problems and evaluate the robustness of existing solutions. In our benchmark experiments, BCDR has also demonstrated its efficiency on solving large-scale scheduling problems in the aforementioned domains. Thanks to its conflict-driven approach for computing relaxations, BCDR achieves one to two orders of magnitude improvements on runtime performance when compared to state-of-the-art numerical solvers.We would like to acknowledge financial support from the Boeing Company under grant MIT-BA-GTA-1; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency under contract number HR0011-15-C-0098; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency meta program under contract number 6923548; and the Australian Research Council Discovery Project Grant DP140104219

Collaborative Diagnosis of Over-Subscribed Temporal Plans

PhD thesisOver-subscription, that is, being assigned too many tasks or requirements that are too demanding, is commonly encountered in temporal planning problems. As human beings, we often want to do more than we can, ask for things that may not be available, while underestimating how long it takes to perform each task. It is often difficult for us to detect the causes of failure in such situations and then find resolutions that are effective. We can greatly benefit from tools that assist us by looking out for these plan failures, by identifying their root causes, and by proposing preferred resolutions to these failures that lead to feasible plans. In recent literature, several approaches have been developed to resolve such over-subscribed problems, which are often framed as over-constrained scheduling, configuration design or optimal planning problems. Most of them take an all-or-nothing approach, in which over-subscription is resolved through suspending constraints or dropping goals. While helpful, in real-world scenarios, we often want to preserve our plan goals as much possible. As human beings, we know that slightly weakening the requirements of a travel plan, or replacing one of its destinations with an alternative one is often sufficient to resolve an over-subscription problem, no matter if the requirement being weakened is the duration of a deep-sea survey being planned for, or the restaurant cuisine for a dinner date. The goal of this thesis is to develop domain independent relaxation algorithms that perform this type of slight weakening of constraints, which we will formalize as continuous relaxation, and to embody them in a computational aid, Uhura, that performs tasks akin to an experienced travel agent or ocean scientists. In over-subscribed situations, Uhura helps us diagnose the causes of failure, suggests alternative plans, and collaborates with us in order to resolve conflicting requirements in the most preferred way. Most importantly, the algorithms underlying Uhura supports the weakening, instead of suspending, of constraints and variable domains in a temporally flexible plan. The contribution of this thesis is two-fold. First, we developed an algorithmic framework, called Best-first Conflict-Directed Relaxation (BCDR), for performing plan relaxation. Second, we use the BCDR framework to perform relaxation for several different families of plan representations involving different types of constraints. These include temporal constraints, chance constraints and variable domain constraints, and we incorporate several specialized conflict detection and resolution algorithms in support of the continuous weakening of them. The key idea behind BCDR's approach to continuous relaxation is to generalize the concepts of discrete conflicts and relaxations, first introduced by the model-based diagnosis community, to hybrid conflicts and relaxations, which denote minimal inconsistencies and minimal relaxations to both discrete and continuous relaxable constraints

Hybrid SAT-Based Consistency Checking Algorithms for Simple Temporal Networks with Decisions

A Simple Temporal Network (STN) consists of time points modeling temporal events and constraints modeling the minimal and maximal temporal distance between them. A Simple Temporal Network with Decisions (STND) extends an STN by adding decision time points to model temporal plans with decisions. A decision time point is a special kind of time point that once executed allows for deciding a truth value for an associated Boolean proposition. Furthermore, STNDs label time points and constraints by conjunctions of literals saying for which scenarios (i.e., complete truth value assignments to the propositions) they are relevant. Thus, an STND models a family of STNs each obtained as a projection of the initial STND onto a scenario. An STND is consistent if there exists a consistent scenario (i.e., a scenario such that the corresponding STN projection is consistent). Recently, a hybrid SAT-based consistency checking algorithm (HSCC) was proposed to check the consistency of an STND. Unfortunately, that approach lacks experimental evaluation and does not allow for the synthesis of all consistent scenarios. In this paper, we propose an incremental HSCC algorithm for STNDs that (i) is faster than the previous one and (ii) allows for the synthesis of all consistent scenarios and related early execution schedules (offline temporal planning). Then, we carry out an experimental evaluation with KAPPA, a tool that we developed for STNDs. Finally, we prove that STNDs and disjunctive temporal networks (DTNs) are equivalent

Mining Significant Temporal Networks Is Polynomial

A Conditional Simple Temporal Network with Uncertainty and Decisions (CSTNUD) is a formalism that tackles controllable and uncontrollable durations as well as controllable and uncontrollable choices simultaneously. In the classic top-down model-based engineering approach, a designer builds a CSTNUD to model, validate and execute some temporal plan of interest. Instead, in this paper, we investigate the bottom-up approach by providing a deterministic polynomial time algorithm to mine a CSTNUD from a set of execution traces (i.e., a log). This paper paves the way for the design of controllable temporal networks mined from traces that also contain information on uncontrollable events

Consistency checking of STNs with decisions: Managing temporal and access-control constraints in a seamless way

A Simple Temporal Network (STN) consists of time points modeling temporal events and constraints modeling the minimal and maximal temporal distance between them. A Simple Temporal Network with Decisions (STND) extends an STN to model temporal plans with decisions. STNDs label time points and constraints by conjunctions of literals saying for which scenarios (i.e., complete truth value assignments to the propositions) they are relevant. In this paper, we deal with the use of STNDs for modeling and synthesizing execution strategies. We propose an incremental hybrid SAT-based consistency checking algorithm for STNDs that is faster than the one previously proposed and allows for the synthesis of all consistent scenarios and related early execution schedules (offline temporal planning). We carry out an experimental evaluation with Kappa, a tool that we developed for STNDs. We also show that any STND can be easily translated into a disjunctive temporal network and vice versa

A general framework integrating techniques for scheduling under uncertainty

Ces dernières années, de nombreux travaux de recherche ont porté sur la planification de tâches et l'ordonnancement sous incertitudes. Ce domaine de recherche comprend un large choix de modèles, techniques de résolution et systèmes, et il est difficile de les comparer car les terminologies existantes sont incomplètes. Nous avons cependant identifié des familles d'approches générales qui peuvent être utilisées pour structurer la littérature suivant trois axes perpendiculaires. Cette nouvelle structuration de l'état de l'art est basée sur la façon dont les décisions sont prises. De plus, nous proposons un modèle de génération et d'exécution pour ordonnancer sous incertitudes qui met en oeuvre ces trois familles d'approches. Ce modèle est un automate qui se développe lorsque l'ordonnancement courant n'est plus exécutable ou lorsque des conditions particulières sont vérifiées. Le troisième volet de cette thèse concerne l'étude expérimentale que nous avons menée. Au-dessus de ILOG Solver et Scheduler nous avons implémenté un prototype logiciel en C++, directement instancié de notre modèle de génération et d'exécution. Nous présentons de nouveaux problèmes d'ordonnancement probabilistes et une approche par satisfaction de contraintes combinée avec de la simulation pour les résoudre. ABSTRACT : For last years, a number of research investigations on task planning and scheduling under uncertainty have been conducted. This research domain comprises a large number of models, resolution techniques, and systems, and it is difficult to compare them since the existing terminologies are incomplete. However, we identified general families of approaches that can be used to structure the literature given three perpendicular axes. This new classification of the state of the art is based on the way decisions are taken. In addition, we propose a generation and execution model for scheduling under uncertainty that combines these three families of approaches. This model is an automaton that develops when the current schedule is no longer executable or when some particular conditions are met. The third part of this thesis concerns our experimental study. On top of ILOG Solver and Scheduler, we implemented a software prototype in C++ directly instantiated from our generation and execution model. We present new probabilistic scheduling problems and a constraintbased approach combined with simulation to solve some instances thereof

Risk allocation for temporal risk assessment

Thesis: M. Eng., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (pages 63-64).Temporal uncertainty arises when performing any activity in the natural world. When activities are composed into temporal plans, then, there is a risk of not meeting the plan requirements. Currently, we do not have quantitatively precise methods for assessing temporal risk of a plan. Existing methods that deal with temporal uncertainty either forgo probabilistic models or try to optimize a single objective, rather than satisfy multiple objectives. This thesis offers a method for evaluating whether a schedule exists that meets a set of temporal constraints, with acceptable risk of failure. Our key insight is to assume a form of risk allocation to each source of temporal uncertainty in our plan, such that we may reformulate the probabilistic plan into an STNU parameterized on the risk allocation. We show that the problem becomes a deterministic one of finding a risk allocation which implies a schedulable STNU within acceptable risk. By leveraging the principles behind STNU analysis, we derive conditions which encode this problem as a convex feasibility program over risk allocations. Furthermore, these conditions may be learned incrementally as temporal conflicts. Thus, to boost computational efficiency, we employ a generate-and-test approach to determine whether a schedule may be found.by Andrew J. Wang.M. Eng

Temporal and Resource Controllability of Workflows Under Uncertainty

Workflow technology has long been employed for the modeling, validation and execution of business processes. A workflow is a formal description of a business process in which single atomic work units (tasks), organized in a partial order, are assigned to processing entities (agents) in order to achieve some business goal(s). Workflows can also employ workflow paths (projections with respect to a total truth value assignment to the Boolean variables associated to the conditional split connectors) in order (not) to execute a subset of tasks. A workflow management system coordinates the execution of tasks that are part of workflow instances such that all relevant constraints are eventually satisfied. Temporal workflows specify business processes subject to temporal constraints such as controllable or uncontrollable durations, delays and deadlines. The choice of a workflow path may be controllable or not, considered either in isolation or in combination with uncontrollable durations. Access controlled workflows specify workflows in which users are authorized for task executions and authorization constraints say which users remain authorized to execute which tasks depending on who did what. Access controlled workflows may consider workflow paths too other than the uncertain availability of resources (users, throughout this thesis). When either a task duration or the choice of the workflow path to take or the availability of a user is out of control, we need to verify that the workflow can be executed by verifying all constraints for any possible combination of behaviors arising from the uncontrollable parts. Indeed, users might be absent before starting the execution (static resiliency), they can also become so during execution (decremental resiliency) or they can come and go throughout the execution (dynamic resiliency). Temporal access controlled workflows merge the two previous formalisms by considering several kinds of uncontrollable parts simultaneously. Authorization constraints may be extended to support conditional and temporal features. A few years ago some proposals addressed the temporal controllability of workflows by encoding them into temporal networks to exploit "off-the-shelf" controllability checking algorithms available for them. However, those proposals fail to address temporal controllability where the controllable and uncontrollable choices of workflow paths may mutually influence one another. Furthermore, to the best of my knowledge, controllability of access controlled workflows subject to uncontrollable workflow paths and algorithms to validate and execute dynamically resilient workflows remain unexplored. To overcome these limitations, this thesis goes for exact algorithms by addressing temporal and resource controllability of workflows under uncertainty. I provide several new classes of (temporal) constraint networks and corresponding algorithms to check their controllability. After that, I encode workflows into these new formalisms. I also provide an encoding into instantaneous timed games to model static, decremental and dynamic resiliency and synthesize memoryless execution strategies. I developed a few tools with which I carried out some initial experimental evaluations