Analysing the natural population growth of a large marine mammal after a depletive harvest

An understanding of the underlying processes and comprehensive history of population growth after a harvest-driven depletion is necessary when assessing the long-term effectiveness of management and conservation strategies. The South American sea lion (SASL), Otaria flavescens, is the most conspicuous marine mammal along the South American coasts, where it has been heavily exploited. As a consequence of this exploitation, many of its populations were decimated during the early 20th century but currently show a clear recovery. The aim of this study was to assess SASL population recovery by applying a Bayesian state-space modelling framework. We were particularly interested in understanding how the population responds at low densities, how human-induced mortality interplays with natural mechanisms, and how density-dependence may regulate population growth. The observed population trajectory of SASL shows a non-linear relationship with density, recovering with a maximum increase rate of 0.055. However, 50 years after hunting cessation, the population still represents only 40% of its pre-exploitation abundance. Considering that the SASL population in this region represents approximately 72% of the species abundance within the Atlantic Ocean, the present analysis provides insights into the potential mechanisms regulating the dynamics of SASL populations across the global distributional range of the species.Fil: Romero, Maria Alejandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Instituto de Biología Marina y Pesquera Almirante Storni; ArgentinaFil: Grandi, Maria Florencia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Koen Alonso, Mariano. Fisheries And Ocean Canada. Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre; CanadáFil: Svendsen, Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Instituto de Biología Marina y Pesquera Almirante Storni; ArgentinaFil: Ocampo Reinaldo, Matías. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Instituto de Biología Marina y Pesquera Almirante Storni; ArgentinaFil: Garcia, Nestor Anibal. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Dans, Silvana Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia; ArgentinaFil: González, Raul Alberto Candido. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Instituto de Biología Marina y Pesquera Almirante Storni; ArgentinaFil: Crespo, Enrique Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia; Argentin

Winter Bird Assemblages in Rural and Urban Environments: A National Survey

Urban development has a marked effect on the ecological and behavioural traits of many living organisms, including birds. In this paper, we analysed differences in the numbers of wintering birds between rural and urban areas in Poland. We also analysed species richness and abundance in relation to longitude, latitude, human population size, and landscape structure. All these parameters were analysed using modern statistical techniques incorporating species detectability. We counted birds in 156 squares (0.25 km2 each) in December 2012 and again in January 2013 in locations in and around 26 urban areas across Poland (in each urban area we surveyed 3 squares and 3 squares in nearby rural areas). The influence of twelve potential environmental variables on species abundance and richness was assessed with Generalized Linear Mixed Models, Principal Components and Detrended Correspondence Analyses. Totals of 72 bird species and 89,710 individual birds were recorded in this study. On average (±SE) 13.3 ± 0.3 species and 288 ± 14 individuals were recorded in each square in each survey. A formal comparison of rural and urban areas revealed that 27 species had a significant preference; 17 to rural areas and 10 to urban areas. Moreover, overall abundance in urban areas was more than double that of rural areas. There was almost a complete separation of rural and urban bird communities. Significantly more birds and more bird species were recorded in January compared to December. We conclude that differences between rural and urban areas in terms of winter conditions and the availability of resources are reflected in different bird communities in the two environments

The abundance and spatial distribution of ultra-diffuse galaxies in nearby galaxy clusters

Recent observations have highlighted a significant population of faint but large (r_eff>1.5 kpc) galaxies in the Coma cluster. The origin of these Ultra Diffuse Galaxies (UDGs) remains puzzling, as the interpretation of the observational results has been hindered by the subjective selection of UDGs, and the limited study of only the Coma (and some examples in the Virgo-) cluster. We extend the study of UDGs using 8 clusters in the redshift range 0.044<z<0.063 with deep g- and r-band imaging data taken with MegaCam at the CFHT. We describe an automatic selection pipeline for quantitative identification, tested for completeness using image simulations of these galaxies. We find that the abundance of the UDGs we can detect increases with cluster mass, reaching ~200 in typical haloes of M200~10^15 Msun. The cluster UDGs have colours consistent with the cluster red sequence, and have a steep size distribution that declines as n~r_eff^-3.4. Their radial distribution is significantly steeper than NFW in the outskirts, and is significantly shallower in the inner parts. They follow the same radial distribution as the more massive quiescent galaxies in the clusters, except within the core region of r<0.15XR200 (or <300 kpc). Within this region the number density of UDGs drops and is consistent with zero. These diffuse galaxies can only resist tidal forces down to this cluster-centric distance if they are highly centrally dark-matter dominated. The observation that the radial distribution of more compact dwarf galaxies (r_eff<1.0 kpc) with similar luminosities follows the same distribution as the UDGs, but exist down to a smaller distance of 100kpc from the cluster centres, indicates that they may have similarly massive sub-haloes as the UDGs. Although several scenarios can give rise to the UDG population, our results point to differences in the formation history as the most plausible explanation.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in A&A after minor revisio

Assessing the potential contribution of roads to variation in British bird populations

Roads and their traffic are known to affect bird species at both individual and population levels. Collisions with vehicles can cause direct mortality, and noise, light and chemical pollution can have sub-lethal impacts. Additionally, roads can cause habitat degradation, fragmentation and edge effects. However, thus far, the published literature on this topic comprises only relatively small-scale studies and our understanding of the impacts of roads on bird populations at landscape or national scales is limited. I use bird count and road data from across Great Britain to assess the spatial associations between the density and traffic volumes of roads, and bird populations in the surrounding areas. In Chapter 1, I provide background detail on the impacts of roads on birds and introduce the premise and necessity of my thesis. In Chapter 2, I quantify changes in the detectability of birds in field surveys in relation to road exposure. I find that, while some species are significantly harder to detect in areas of higher road exposure, others are easier. I therefore suggest that, in analyses of bird populations around roads, where possible, variation in detectability with exposure to roads should be accounted for, to avoid under- or over-estimation of road impacts on birds. In Chapter 3, I incorporate my detectability models into a spatial analysis of bird populations and roads across Britain, for 51 common and widespread species. This methodology allows independent assessment of the associations between roads and bird abundance, accounting for the potentially confounding impacts of roads on detectability. I find the abundances of 30 species to vary significantly with exposure to roads, some negatively and others positively. Across the interquartile range of road exposure, the mean decrease in bird abundance (for species with significant negative associations) was -19% and the mean increase (for species with significant positive associations) was +47%. In Chapter 4, in order to explore interspecific variation in these associations, I analyse a further 24 rarer species, and then test my results for all 75 species in relation to five characteristics. In this analysis I find 58 species to vary significantly in abundance with exposure to roads and the mean changes in bird abundance across the interquartile range of road exposure to increase to -39% and +48%. I also find that, with increasing road exposure, species with higher national populations have relatively higher abundance, while nationally rarer species have relatively lower abundance. Smaller-bodied and migratory species are also more negatively associated with road exposure. The distances over which negative associations between road exposure and bird abundance can be detected reach a mean of 700 m from a road, an area covering over 70% of Britain and 41% of the total area of terrestrial protected sites. I suggest that roads may, like some other forms of human disturbance, create conditions that benefit generally common species at the expense of others, thus having the potential to contribute to large-scale simplification of bird communities. Finally, in Chapter 5, I give an overall discussion of my thesis and highlight the importance of further work to understand in more detail the impacts of roads on birds in Britain and elsewhere, and to mitigate them effectively.NER

Roads as a contributor to landscape-scale variation in bird communities.

Roads and their traffic can affect wildlife over large areas and, in regions with dense road networks, may influence a high proportion of the ecological landscape. We assess the abundance of 75 bird species in relation to roads across Great Britain. Of these, 77% vary significantly in abundance with increasing road exposure, just over half negatively so. The effect distances of these negative associations average 700 m from a road, covering over 70% of Great Britain and over 40% of the total area of terrestrial protected sites. Species with smaller national populations generally have lower relative abundance with increasing road exposure, whereas the opposite is true for more common species. Smaller-bodied and migratory species are also more negatively associated with road exposure. By creating environmental conditions that benefit generally common species at the expense of others, road networks may echo other anthropogenic disturbances in bringing about large-scale simplification of avian communities

Baryonic Signatures in Large-Scale Structure

We investigate the consequences of a non-negligible baryon fraction for models of structure formation in Cold Dark Matter dominated cosmologies, emphasizing in particular the existence of oscillations in the present-day matter power spectrum. These oscillations are the remnants of acoustic oscillations in the photon-baryon fluid before last scattering. For acceptable values of the cosmological and baryon densities, the oscillations modulate the power by up to 10%, with a `period' in spatial wavenumber which is close to Delta k approximately 0.05/ Mpc. We study the effects of nonlinear evolution on these features, and show that they are erased for k > 0.2 h/ Mpc. At larger scales, the features evolve as expected from second-order perturbation theory: the visibility of the oscillations is affected only weakly by nonlinear evolution. No realistic CDM parameter combination is able to account for the claimed feature near k = 0.1 h/ Mpc in the APM power spectrum, or the excess power at 100 Mpc/h wavelengths quoted by several recent surveys. Thus baryonic oscillations are not predicted to dominate existing measurements of clustering. We examine several effects which may mask the features which are predicted, and conclude that future galaxy surveys may be able to detect the oscillatory features in the power spectrum provided baryons comprise more than 15% of the total density, but that it will be a technically challenging achievement.Comment: 16 pages, 13 Figures, to be published in MNRA

Spatial and species-level predictions of road mortality risk using trait data

Aim: Wildlife-vehicle collisions are recognized as one of the major causes of mortality for many species. Empirical estimates of road mortality show that some species are more likely to be killed than others but to what extend this variation can be explained and predicted using intrinsic species characteristics remains poorly understood. This study aims to identify general macroecological patterns associated to road mortality and generate spatial and species-level predictions of risks. Location: Brazil Time period: 2001-2014 Major taxa: Birds and mammals Methods: We fitted trait-based random forest regression models (controlling for survey characteristics) to explain 783 empirical road mortality rates from Brazil, representing 170 bird and 73 mammalian species. Fitted models were then used to make spatial and species-level prediction of road mortality risk in Brazil considering 1775 birds and 623 mammals which occur within the country’s continental boundaries. Results: Survey frequency and geographic location were key predictors of observed rates, but mortality was also explained by species’ body size, reproductive speed and ecological specialization. Spatial predictions revealed high potential standardized (per km road) mortality risk in Amazonia for birds and mammals, and additionally high risk in Southern Brazil for mammals. Given the existing road network, these predictions mean more than 8 million birds and 2 million mammals could be killed per year in Brazilian roads. Furthermore, predicted rates for all Brazilian endotherm uncovered potential vulnerability to road mortality of several understudied species which are currently listed as threatened by the IUCN. Conclusion: With a fast-expanding global road network, there is an urgent need to develop improved approaches to assess and predict road-related impacts. This study illustrates the potential of trait-based models as assessment tools to better understand correlates of vulnerability to road mortality across species, and as predictive tools for difficult to sample or understudied species and areas

Line transect abundance estimation with uncertain detection on the trackline

Bibliography: leaves 225-233.After critically reviewing developments in line transect estimation theory to date, general likelihood functions are derived for the case in which detection probabilities are modelled as functions of any number of explanatory variables and detection of animals on the trackline (i.e. directly in the observer's path) is not certain. Existing models are shown to correspond to special cases of the general models. Maximum likelihood estimators are derived for some special cases of the general model and some existing line transect estimators are shown to correspond to maximum likelihood estimators for other special cases. The likelihoods are shown to be extensions of existing mark-recapture likelihoods as well as being generalizations of existing line transect likelihoods. Two new abundance estimators are developed. The first is a Horvitz-Thompson-like estimator which utilizes the fact that for point estimation of abundance the density of perpendicular distances in the population can be treated as known in appropriately designed line transect surveys. The second is based on modelling the probability density function of detection probabilities in the population. Existing line transect estimators are shown to correspond to special cases of the new Horvitz-Thompson-like estimator, so that this estimator, together with the general likelihoods, provides a unifying framework for estimating abundance from line transect surveys