Modeling Fire Danger in Galicia and Asturias (Spain) from MODIS images

Forest fires are one of the most dangerous natural hazards, especially when they are recurrent. In areas such as Galicia (Spain), forest fires are frequent and devastating. The development of fire risk models becomes a very important prevention task for these regions. Vegetation and moisture indices can be used to monitor vegetation status; however, the different indices may perform differently depending on the vegetation species. Eight different spectral indices were selected to determine the most appropriate index in Galicia. This study was extended to the adjacent region of Asturias. Six years of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) images, together with ground fire data in a 10 × 10 km grid basis were used. The percentage of fire events met the variations suffered by some of the spectral indices, following a linear regression in both Galicia and Asturias. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) was the index leading to the best results. Based on these results, a simple fire danger model was established, using logistic regression, by combining the EVI variation with other variables, such as fire history in each cell and period of the year. A seventy percent overall concordance was obtained between estimated and observed fire frequency

Design of a Specialized UAV Platform for the Discharge of a Fire Extinguishing Capsule

Tato práce se zabývá návrhem systému specializovaného pro autonomní detekci a lokalizaci požárů z palubních senzorů bezpilotních helikoptér. Hašení požárů je zajištěno automatickým vystřelením ampule s hasící kapalinou do zdroje požáru z palubního vystřelovače. Hlavní část této práce se soustředí na detekci požárů v datech termální kamery a jejich následnou lokalizaci ve světě za pomoci palubní hloubkové kamery. Bezpilotní helikoptéra je poté optimálně navigována na pozici pro zajištění průletu ampule s hasící kapalinou do zdroje požáru. Vyvinuté metody jsou detailně analyzovány a jejich chování je testováno jak v simulaci, tak současně i při reálných experimentech. Kvalitativní a kvantitativní analýza ukazuje na použitelnost a robustnost celého systému.This thesis deals with the design of an unmanned multirotor aircraft system specialized for autonomous detection and localization of fires from onboard sensors, and the task of fast and effective fire extinguishment. The main part of this thesis focuses on the detection of fires in thermal images and their localization in the world using an onboard depth camera. The localized fires are used to optimally position the unmanned aircraft in order to effectively discharge an ampoule filled with a fire extinguishant from an onboard launcher. The developed methods are analyzed in detail and their performance is evaluated in simulation scenarios as well as in real-world experiments. The included quantitative and qualitative analysis verifies the feasibility and robustness of the system

Review and new methodological approaches in human-caused wildfire modeling and ecological vulnerability: Risk modeling at mainland Spain

En las últimas décadas, las autoridades en materia de incendios han fomentado la investigación acerca de los factores desencadenantes del fuego, parámetro decisivo para lograr un entendimiento mayor de los patrones de la ocurrencia de incendios y mejorar las medidas preventivas. Existe por tanto una necesidad de mejorar y actualizar los enfoques metodológicos para el modelado de incendios forestales, teniendo en cuenta no sólo algoritmos innovadores, sino también la mejora y/o superación de los métodos clásicos de regresión. Por otra parte, es también imprescindible fomentar la evaluación de los posibles daños potenciales en los ecosistemas naturales, promoviendo así la conservación de los servicios de valor económico, ambiental, cultural y estético que éstos proporcionan a la sociedad. El objetivo principal de esta tesis doctoral es explorar nuevos métodos para el modelado de la causalidad humana en incendios forestales así como de los efectos adversos sobre las comunidades vegetales potencialmente afectadas. El modelado de la causalidad humana se ha realizado a partir de métodos de aprendizaje artificial y de técnicas de regresión geográficamente ponderada. Estas técnicas permiten por una parte el ajuste de modelos de probabilidad de ocurrencia espacialmente explícitos y, por otra, el estudio de la variabilidad espacial de los factores explicativos. La estimación de la vulnerabilidad de la vegetación frente al fuego, se ha llevado a cabo utilizando un enfoque cuantitativo, que permita superar los métodos existentes, que, si bien pueden ser útiles en algunas áreas de la gestión del territorio, son inadecuados para otros tipos de análisis, tales como la estimación de las pérdidas económicas inducidas por el fuego como consecuencia de la interrupción de los servicios ambientales (por ejemplo, la madera, la caza, y la recolección de setas). Para abordar el análisis de la vulnerabilidad se propone un método basado en la estimación del tiempo de recuperación de las comunidades vegetales tras el fuego, desarrollado mediante álgebra de mapas en entorno SIG. Los resultados indican que la utilización de métodos de aprendizaje artificial (concretamente el algoritmo Random Forest) supone una mejora sustancial respecto a los métodos clásicos de regresión, si bien parece que existe cierta incertidumbre en los modelos desarrollados, relacionada principalmente con la calidad de los datos de ocurrencia. Además, la aplicación de modelos GWR ha revelado la existencia de una elevada heterogeneidad espacial en la relación y capacidad explicativa de los factores relacionados con la ocurrencia de incendios con origen antrópico. Por otra parte, la aplicación del modelo propuesto para la estimación cuantitativa de la vulnerabilidad ecológica sugiere que la capacidad de respuesta de la vegetación se encuentra estrechamente relacionada con la estrategia reproductiva de las especies afectadas.Over the last decades, authorities responsible on forest fire have encouraged research on fire triggering factors, recognizing this as a critical point to achieve a greater understanding of fire occurrence patterns and improve preventive measures. There is therefore a need to improve and update the methodological approaches for modeling forest fires, taking into account not only innovative algorithms, but also improving and/or overcoming classical regression methods. On the other hand it is also essential to encourage the assessment of potential damage on natural ecosystems, promoting the conservation of its economic, environmental, cultural and aesthetic assets they provide to society. The main objective of this PhD thesis is to explore new methods for modeling human causality in forest fires and adverse effects on the plant communities potentially affected. Human causality modeling was carried out from machine learning methods and geographically weighted regression techniques. These procedures allow the adjustment spatially explicit probability models of occurrence and, secondly, the study of the spatial variability of wildfire explanatory factors. The estimation of the vulnerability of vegetation to fire was carried out using a quantitative approach to overcome current methods, which, while they may be useful in some areas of land management, are inadequate for other types of analysis, such as estimating economic losses induced by interrupting ecosystem services (e.g., wood, hunting, and gathering mushrooms). To address the vulnerability a method based on evaluating the recovery time of plant communities after the fire using a GIS map algebra approach is proposed. The results suggest that the use of machine learning methods (specifically the Random Forest algorithm) represents a substantial improvement over traditional methods of regression, although it appears that there is some uncertainty in the models, primarily related to the quality of ignition. Furthermore, the application of GWR models has revealed the existence of a high spatial heterogeneity in the relationship and explanatory power of the factors related to the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. Moreover, the application of the proposed model for the quantitative estimation of ecological vulnerability suggests that the responsiveness of vegetation is closely related to the reproductive strategy of the fire-affected species

Proceedings of the 6th International Workshop of the EARSeL Special Interest Group on Forest Fires Advances in Remote Sensing and GIS Applications in Forest Fire Management Towards an Operational Use of Remote Sensing in Forest Fire Management

During the last two decades, interest in forest fire research has grown steadily, as more and more local and global impacts of burning are being identified. The definition of fire regimes as well as the identification of factors explaining spatial and temporal variations in these fire characteristics are recently hot fields of research. Changes in these fire regimes have important social and ecological implications. Whether these changes are mainly caused by land use or climate warming, greater efforts are demanded to manage forest fires at different temporal and spatial scales. The European Association of Remote Sensing Laboratories (EARSeL)’s Special Interest Group (SIG) on Forest Fires was created in 1995, following the initiative of several researchers studying Mediterranean fires in Europe. It has promoted five technical meetings and several specialised publications since then, and represents one of the most active groups within the EARSeL. The SIG has tried to foster interaction among scientists and managers who are interested in using remote sensing data and techniques to improve the traditional methods of fire risk estimation and the assessment of fire effect. The aim of the 6th international workshop is to analyze the operational use of remote sensing in forest fire management, bringing together scientists and fire managers to promote the development of methods that may better serve the operational community. This idea clearly links with international programmes of a similar scope, such as the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) and the Global Observation of Forest Cover/Land Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD) who, together with the Joint Research Center of the European Union sponsor this event. Finally, I would like to thank the local organisers for the considerable lengths they have gone to in order to put this material together, and take care of all the details that the organization of this event requires.JRC.H.3-Global environement monitorin

Design and conceptual development of a novel hybrid intelligent decision support system applied towards the prevention and early detection of forest fires

Forest fires have become a major problem that every year has devastating consequences at the environmental level, negatively impacting the social and economic spheres of the affected regions. Aiming to mitigate these terrible effects, intelligent prediction models focused on early fire detection are becoming common practice. Considering mainly a preventive approach, these models often use tools that indifferently apply statistical or symbolic inference techniques. However, exploring the potential for the hybrid use of both, as is already being done in other research areas, is a significant novelty with direct application to early fire detection. In this line, this work proposes the design, development, and proof of concept of a new intelligent hybrid system that aims to provide support to the decisions of the teams responsible for defining strategies for the prevention, detection, and extinction of forest fires. The system determines three risk levels: a general one called Objective Technical Fire Risk, based on machine learning algorithms, which determines the global danger of a fire in some area of the region under study, and two more specific others which indicate the risk over a limited area of the region. These last two risk levels, expressed in matrix form and called Technical Risk Matrix and Expert Risk Matrix, are calculated through a convolutional neural network and an expert system, respectively. After that, they are combined by means of another expert system to determine the Global Risk Matrix that quantifies the risk of fire in each of the study regions and generates a visual representation of these results through a color map of the region itself. The proof of concept of the system has been carried out on a set of historical data from fires that occurred in the Montesinho Natural Park (Portugal), demonstrating its potential utility as a tool for the prevention and early detection of forest fires. The intelligent hybrid system designed has demonstrated excellent predictive capabilities in such a complex environment as forest fires, which are conditioned by multiple factors. Future improvements associated with data integration and the formalization of knowledge bases will make it possible to obtain a standard tool that could be used and validated in real time in different forest areas

Design and user applications of a low-cost satellite constellation for global daily imaging revisit

There are many varied sources of satellite Earth Observation and Remote Sensing data currently in-orbit. However, in general there is a distinct lack of rapid-response data for timely application. This is particularly of value in disaster situations where the value of information rapidly falls as time progresses after the event. Micro-satellite constellations, with their low-cost and low launch costs provide a potential affordable solution to the issue of data timeliness. This researchp roject, supportedb y Surrey Satellite Technology Limited, addressesth e problem of data timeliness through the development of a solution for a micro-satellite constellation to give global daily imaging revisit opportunities at a Ground Sample Distance of 30-40m in Red, Green and Near Infra-Red bands. This thesis reviews existing Earth Observation capabilities to highlight the niche that exists for this mission. It then describes the development of the mission and spacecraft system solution as well as ground segment characteristics. The spacecraft and mission design is taken from a conceptual phase to launch and validation via in-orbit operations. This is the first micro-satellite constellation for Earth Observation, and the first microsatellite solution to addresst he rapid-responsep roblem. Research into potential applications for the image data is also presented, focussing in particular on disaster management applications. Wildfire management applications and flood monitoring are considered in most detail, whilst other potential application areas are addressed in brief. This research clearly indicates that there is much potential for the DMC imagery to add value, over and above the current available Earth Observation data sources, to a number of applications. It is noted that further work should be performed to validate the use of DMC data in any given application.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Operationalization of Remote Sensing Solutions for Sustainable Forest Management

The great potential of remote sensing technologies for operational use in sustainable forest management is addressed in this book, which is the reprint of papers published in the Remote Sensing Special Issue “Operationalization of Remote Sensing Solutions for Sustainable Forest Management”. The studies come from three continents and cover multiple remote sensing systems (including terrestrial mobile laser scanning, unmanned aerial vehicles, airborne laser scanning, and satellite data acquisition) and a diversity of data processing algorithms, with a focus on machine learning approaches. The focus of the studies ranges from identification and characterization of individual trees to deriving national- or even continental-level forest attributes and maps. There are studies carefully describing exercises on the case study level, and there are also studies introducing new methodologies for transdisciplinary remote sensing applications. Even though most of the authors look forward to continuing their research, nearly all studies introduced are ready for operational use or have already been implemented in practical forestry

CIRA annual report FY 2017/2018

Reporting period April 1, 2017-March 31, 2018