Inter and intra-hemispheric structural imaging markers predict depression relapse after electroconvulsive therapy: a multisite study.

Relapse of depression following treatment is high. Biomarkers predictive of an individual's relapse risk could provide earlier opportunities for prevention. Since electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) elicits robust and rapidly acting antidepressant effects, but has a >50% relapse rate, ECT presents a valuable model for determining predictors of relapse-risk. Although previous studies have associated ECT-induced changes in brain morphometry with clinical response, longer-term outcomes have not been addressed. Using structural imaging data from 42 ECT-responsive patients obtained prior to and directly following an ECT treatment index series at two independent sites (UCLA: n = 17, age = 45.41±12.34 years; UNM: n = 25; age = 65.00±8.44), here we test relapse prediction within 6-months post-ECT. Random forests were used to predict subsequent relapse using singular and ratios of intra and inter-hemispheric structural imaging measures and clinical variables from pre-, post-, and pre-to-post ECT. Relapse risk was determined as a function of feature variation. Relapse was well-predicted both within site and when cohorts were pooled where top-performing models yielded balanced accuracies of 71-78%. Top predictors included cingulate isthmus asymmetry, pallidal asymmetry, the ratio of the paracentral to precentral cortical thickness and the ratio of lateral occipital to pericalcarine cortical thickness. Pooling cohorts and predicting relapse from post-treatment measures provided the best classification performances. However, classifiers trained on each age-disparate cohort were less informative for prediction in the held-out cohort. Post-treatment structural neuroimaging measures and the ratios of connected regions commonly implicated in depression pathophysiology are informative of relapse risk. Structural imaging measures may have utility for devising more personalized preventative medicine approaches

Variation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria

There is substantial variation in the relapse frequency of Plasmodium vivax malaria, with fast-relapsing strains in tropical areas, and slow-relapsing strains in temperate areas with seasonal transmission. We hypothesize that much of the phenotypic diversity in P. vivax relapses arises from selection of relapse frequency to optimize transmission potential in a given environment, in a process similar to the virulence trade-off hypothesis. We develop mathematical models of P. vivax transmission and calculate the basic reproduction number R0 to investigate how transmission potential varies with relapse frequency and seasonality. In tropical zones with year-round transmission, transmission potential is optimized at intermediate relapse frequencies of two to three months: slower-relapsing strains increase the opportunity for onward transmission to mosquitoes, but also increase the risk of being outcompeted by faster-relapsing strains. Seasonality is an important driver of relapse frequency for temperate strains, with the time to first relapse predicted to be six to nine months, coinciding with the duration between seasonal transmission peaks. We predict that there is a threshold degree of seasonality, below which fast-relapsing tropical strains are selected for, and above which slow-relapsing temperate strains dominate, providing an explanation for the observed global distribution of relapse phenotypes

Can a One-Item Mood Scale Do the Trick? Predicting Relapse over 5.5-Years in Recurrent Depression

To examine whether a simple Visual Analogue Mood Scale (VAMS) is able to predict time to relapse over 5.5-years.187 remitted recurrently depressed out-patients were interviewed using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders (SCID-I) and the 17-item Hamilton Depression rating scale (HAM-D) to verify remission status (HAM-D <10). All patients rated their current mood with the help of a Visual Analogue Mood Scale (VAMS) at baseline and at a follow-up assessment three months later. Relapse over 5.5-years was assessed by the SCID-I. Cox regression revealed that both the VAMS at baseline and three months later significantly predicted time to relapse over 5.5-years. Baseline VAMS even predicted time to relapse when the number of previous depressive episodes and HAM-D scores were controlled for. The baseline VAMS explained 6.3% of variance in time to relapse, comparable to the HAM-D interview.Sad mood after remission appears to play a pivotal role in the course of depression. Since a simple VAMS predicted time to relapse, the VAMS might be an easy and time-effective way to monitor mood and risk of early relapse, and offers possibilities for daily monitoring using e-mail and SMS.International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Register Identifier: ISRCTN68246470

Predicting the On-Study Relapse Rate for Multiple Sclerosis Patients in Clinical Trials

Background: The annual relapse rate has been commonly used as a primary efficacy endpoint in phase III multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trials. The aim of this study was to determine the relative contribution of different possible prognostic factors available at baseline to the on-study relapse rate in MS. Methods: A total of 821 patients from the placebo arms of the Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research (SLCMSR) database were available for this analysis. The univariate relationships between on-study relapse rate and the baseline demographic, clinical, and MRI-based predictors were assessed. The multiple relationships were then examined using a Poisson regression model. Two predictor subsets were selected. Subset 1 included age at disease onset, disease duration, gender, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, number of relapses in the last 24 months prior to baseline, and the disease course (RR and SP). Subset 2 consisted of Subset 1 plus gadolinium enhancement status in MRI. The number of patients for developing the models with no missing values was 727 for Subset 1 and 306 for Subset 2. Results:The univariate relationships show that the on-study relapse rate was higher for younger and for female patients, for RR patients than for SP patients, and for patients with positive enhancement status at entry (Wilcoxon test, p<0.05). A higher on-study relapse rate was associated with a shorter disease duration, lower entry EDSS, more pre-study relapses and more enhancing lesions in T1 at entry. The fitted Poisson model shows that disease duration (estimate=-0.02) and previous relapse number (estimate=0.59 for 1, 0.91 for 2 and 1.45 for 3 or more relapses vs 0 relapse) remain. We were able to confirm these findings in a second, independent dataset. Conclusions: The relapse number prior to entry into clinical trials together with disease duration are the best predictors for the on-study relapse rate. Disease course and gadolinium enhancement status, given the other covariates, have no significant influence on the on-study relapse rate

Studies of FLT3 mutations in paired presentation and relapse samples from patients with acute myeloid leukemia: implications for the role of FLT3 mutations in leukemogenesis, minimal residual disease detection, and possible therapy with FLT3 inhibitors

FLT3 mutations, either internal tandem duplications (ITDs) or aspartate residue 835 (D835) point mutations, are present in approximately one third of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and have been associated with an increased relapse rate. We have studied FLT3 mutations in paired presentation and relapse samples to ascertain the biology of these mutations and to evaluate whether they can be used as markers of minimal residual disease. At diagnosis, 24 patients were wild-type FLT3, and 4 acquired a FLT3 mutation at relapse (2 D835+, 2 ITD+), with a further patient acquiring an ITD at second relapse. Of 20 patients positive at diagnosis (18 ITD+, 2 D835+), 5 who were all originally ITD+ had no detectable mutation at relapse, as determined by a sensitive radioactive polymerase chain reaction. One of these patients had acquired an N-Ras mutation not detectable at presentation. Furthermore, another patient had a completely different ITD at relapse, which could not be detected in the presentation sample. These results indicate that FLT3 mutations are secondary events in leukemogenesis, are unstable, and thus should be used cautiously for the detection of minimal residual disease

A prospective evaluation of the predictive value of faecal calprotectin in quiescent Crohn’s disease

Background: The faecal calprotectin (FC) test is a non-invasive marker for gastrointestinal inflammation. Aim: To determine whether higher FC levels in individuals with quiescent Crohn’s disease are associated with clinical relapse over the ensuing 12 months.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Methods: A single centre prospective study was undertaken in Crohn's disease patients in clinical remission attending for routine review. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the primary endpoint of clinical relapse by 12 months, based on FC at baseline, was calculated. Kaplan-Meier curves of time to relapse were based on the resulting optimal FC cutoff for predicting relapse.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Results: Of 97 patients recruited, 92 were either followed up for 12 months without relapsing, or reached the primary endpoint within that period. Of these, 10 (11%) had relapsed by 12 months. The median FC was lower for non-relapsers, 96µg/g (IQR 39-237), than for relapsers, 414µg/g (IQR 259-590), (p=0.005). The area under the ROC curve to predict relapse using FC was 77.4%. An optimal cutoff FC value of 240µg/g to predict relapse of quiescent Crohn’s had sensitivity of 80.0% and specificity of 74.4%. Negative predictive value was 96.8% and positive predictive value was 27.6%. FC≥240μg/g was associated with likelihood of relapse 5.7 (95% CI 1.9-17.3) times higher within 2.3 years than lower values (p=0.002).&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusions: In this prospective dataset, FC appears to be a useful, non-invasive tool to help identify quiescent Crohn’s disease patients at a low risk of relapse over the ensuing 12 months. FC of 240µg/g was the optimal cutoff in this cohort.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt

Predictors of time to relapse in amphetamine-type substance users in the matrix treatment program in Iran : a Cox proportional hazard model application

Background: The aim of this study was to determine which predictors influence the risk of relapse among a cohort of amphetamine-type substance (ATS) users in Iran. Methods: A Cox proportional hazards model was conducted to determine factors associated with the relapse time in the Matrix treatment program provided by the Iranian National Center of Addiction Studies (INCAS) between March 2010 and October 2011. Results: Participating in more treatment sessions was associated with a lower probability of relapse. On the other hand, patients with less family support, longer dependence on ATS, and those with an experience of casual sex and a history of criminal offenses were more likely to relapse. Conclusion: This study broadens our understanding of factors influencing the risk of relapse in ATS use among an Iranian sample. The findings can guide practitioners during the treatment program

Effectiveness of delayed-release dimethyl fumarate on patient-reported outcomes and clinical measures in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in a real-world clinical setting: PROTEC.

Ensaio clínico PROTEC, Protocolo nº 109MS408Abstract BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcomes (PRO) and clinical outcomes give a broad assessment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) disease. OBJECTIVE: The aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of delayed-release dimethyl fumarate (DMF) on disease activity and PROs in patients with RRMS in the clinic. METHODS: PROTEC, a phase 4, open-label, 12-month observational study, assessed annualized relapse rate (ARR), proportion of patients relapsed, and changes in PROs. Newly diagnosed and early MS (≤3.5 EDSS and ≤1 relapse in the prior year) patient subgroups were evaluated. RESULTS: Unadjusted ARR at 12 months post-DMF versus 12 months before DMF initiation was 75% lower (0.161 vs. 0.643, p < 0.0001) overall (n = 1105) and 84%, 77%, and 71% lower in newly diagnosed, ≤3.5 EDSS, and ≤1 relapse subgroups, respectively. Overall, 88% of patients were relapse-free 12 months after DMF initiation (84%, newly diagnosed; 88%, ≤3.5 EDSS; 88%, ≤1 relapse). PRO measures for fatigue, treatment satisfaction, daily living, and work improved significantly over 12 months of DMF versus baseline. CONCLUSION: At 12 months after versus 12 months before DMF initiation, ARR was significantly lower, the majority of patients were relapse-free, and multiple PRO measures showed improvement (overall and for subgroups), suggesting that DMF is effective based on clinical outcomes and from a patient perspective.Clinical trial: A Study Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tecfidera (Dimethyl Fumarate) on Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Disease Activity and Patient-Reported Outcomes (PROTEC), NCT01930708,info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Total and Partial Sleep Deprivation in Clomipramine-Treated Endogenous Depressives

Improvement in depression after total sleep deprivation (TSD) is, as a rule, followed by relapse after subsequent ad libitum sleep. This study is addressed to the question of how nocturnal partial sleep following TSD affects this relapse. Thirty endogenously depressed patients participated in the study. During the night after TSD, subjects were allowed sleep during one of three periods, i.e., unlimited sleep (11:00 p.m.-8:00 a.m.), early partial sleep (11:00 p.m.-3:00 a.m.), or late partial sleep (4:00 a.m.-8:00 a.m.). The hypothesis that partial sleep deprivation on the night following TSD prevents relapse has to be rejected. Relapse was inversely related to a drop in minimum rectal temperature during the night with unlimited or partial sleep, compared with minimum rectal temperature on the previous night.