Ensemble evaluation of hydrological model hypotheses

It is demonstrated for the first time how model parameter, structural and data uncertainties can be accounted for explicitly and simultaneously within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. As an example application, 72 variants of a single soil moisture accounting store are tested as simplified hypotheses of runoff generation at six experimental grassland field-scale lysimeters through model rejection and a novel diagnostic scheme. The fields, designed as replicates, exhibit different hydrological behaviors which yield different model performances. For fields with low initial discharge levels at the beginning of events, the conceptual stores considered reach their limit of applicability. Conversely, one of the fields yielding more discharge than the others, but having larger data gaps, allows for greater flexibility in the choice of model structures. As a model learning exercise, the study points to a “leaking” of the fields not evident from previous field experiments. It is discussed how understanding observational uncertainties and incorporating these into model diagnostics can help appreciate the scale of model structural error

Study of second order upwind differencing in a recirculating flow

The accuracy and stability of the second order upwind differencing scheme was investigated. The solution algorithm employed is based on a coupled solution of the nonlinear finite difference equations by the multigrid technique. Calculations have been made of the driven cavity flow for several Reynolds numbers and finite difference grids. In comparison with the hybrid differencing, the second order upwind differencing is somewhat more accurate but it is not monotonically accurate with mesh refinement. Also, the convergence of the solution algorithm deteriorates with the use of the second order upwind differencing

Optimal allocation of FACTS devices in distribution networks using Imperialist Competitive Algorithm

Copyright © 2005-2015 Praise Worthy Prize. The publisher granted a permission to the author to archive this article in BURA.FACTS devices are used for controlling the voltage, stability, power flow and security of transmission lines. Imperialist Competitive is a recently developed optimization technique, used widely in power systems. This paper presents an approach to finding the optimal location and size of FACTS devices in a distribution network using the Imperialist Competitive technique. IEEE 30-bus system is used as a case study. The results show the advantages of the Imperialist Competitive technique over the conventional approaches. © 2013 Praise Worthy Prize S.r.l. - All rights reserved

Role based behavior analysis

Tese de mestrado, Segurança Informática, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2009Nos nossos dias, o sucesso de uma empresa depende da sua agilidade e capacidade de se adaptar a condições que se alteram rapidamente. Dois requisitos para esse sucesso são trabalhadores proactivos e uma infra-estrutura ágil de Tecnologias de Informacão/Sistemas de Informação (TI/SI) que os consiga suportar. No entanto, isto nem sempre sucede. Os requisitos dos utilizadores ao nível da rede podem nao ser completamente conhecidos, o que causa atrasos nas mudanças de local e reorganizações. Além disso, se não houver um conhecimento preciso dos requisitos, a infraestrutura de TI/SI poderá ser utilizada de forma ineficiente, com excessos em algumas áreas e deficiências noutras. Finalmente, incentivar a proactividade não implica acesso completo e sem restrições, uma vez que pode deixar os sistemas vulneráveis a ameaças externas e internas. O objectivo do trabalho descrito nesta tese é desenvolver um sistema que consiga caracterizar o comportamento dos utilizadores do ponto de vista da rede. Propomos uma arquitectura de sistema modular para extrair informação de fluxos de rede etiquetados. O processo é iniciado com a criação de perfis de utilizador a partir da sua informação de fluxos de rede. Depois, perfis com características semelhantes são agrupados automaticamente, originando perfis de grupo. Finalmente, os perfis individuais são comprados com os perfis de grupo, e os que diferem significativamente são marcados como anomalias para análise detalhada posterior. Considerando esta arquitectura, propomos um modelo para descrever o comportamento de rede dos utilizadores e dos grupos. Propomos ainda métodos de visualização que permitem inspeccionar rapidamente toda a informação contida no modelo. O sistema e modelo foram avaliados utilizando um conjunto de dados reais obtidos de um operador de telecomunicações. Os resultados confirmam que os grupos projectam com precisão comportamento semelhante. Além disso, as anomalias foram as esperadas, considerando a população subjacente. Com a informação que este sistema consegue extrair dos dados em bruto, as necessidades de rede dos utilizadores podem sem supridas mais eficazmente, os utilizadores suspeitos são assinalados para posterior análise, conferindo uma vantagem competitiva a qualquer empresa que use este sistema.In our days, the success of a corporation hinges on its agility and ability to adapt to fast changing conditions. Proactive workers and an agile IT/IS infrastructure that can support them is a requirement for this success. Unfortunately, this is not always the case. The user’s network requirements may not be fully understood, which slows down relocation and reorganization. Also, if there is no grasp on the real requirements, the IT/IS infrastructure may not be efficiently used, with waste in some areas and deficiencies in others. Finally, enabling proactivity does not mean full unrestricted access, since this may leave the systems vulnerable to outsider and insider threats. The purpose of the work described on this thesis is to develop a system that can characterize user network behavior. We propose a modular system architecture to extract information from tagged network flows. The system process begins by creating user profiles from their network flows’ information. Then, similar profiles are automatically grouped into clusters, creating role profiles. Finally, the individual profiles are compared against the roles, and the ones that differ significantly are flagged as anomalies for further inspection. Considering this architecture, we propose a model to describe user and role network behavior. We also propose visualization methods to quickly inspect all the information contained in the model. The system and model were evaluated using a real dataset from a large telecommunications operator. The results confirm that the roles accurately map similar behavior. The anomaly results were also expected, considering the underlying population. With the knowledge that the system can extract from the raw data, the users network needs can be better fulfilled, the anomalous users flagged for inspection, giving an edge in agility for any company that uses it