Risk and price in the bidding process of contractors

Formal and analytical risk models prescribe how risk should be incorporated in construction bids. However, the actual process of how contractors and their clients negotiate and agree on price is complex, and not clearly articulated in the literature. Using participant observation, the entire tender process was shadowed in two leading UK construction firms. This was compared to propositions in analytical models and significant differences were found. 670 hours of work observed in both firms revealed three stages of the bidding process. Bidding activities were categorized and their extent estimated as deskwork (32%), calculations (19%), meetings (14%), documents (13%), off-days (11%), conversations (7%), correspondence (3%) and travel (1%). Risk allowances of 1-2% were priced in some bids and three tiers of risk apportionment in bids were identified. However, priced risks may sometimes be excluded from the final bidding price to enhance competitiveness. Thus, although risk apportionment affects a contractor’s pricing strategy, other complex, microeconomic factors also affect price. Instead of pricing in contingencies, risk was priced mostly through contractual rather than price mechanisms, to reflect commercial imperatives. The findings explain why some assumptions underpinning analytical models may not be sustainable in practice and why what actually happens in practice is important for those who seek to model the pricing of construction bids

Implementation in Advised Strategies: Welfare Guarantees from Posted-Price Mechanisms When Demand Queries Are NP-Hard

State-of-the-art posted-price mechanisms for submodular bidders with $m$ items achieve approximation guarantees of $O((\log \log m)^3)$ [Assadi and Singla, 2019]. Their truthfulness, however, requires bidders to compute an NP-hard demand-query. Some computational complexity of this form is unavoidable, as it is NP-hard for truthful mechanisms to guarantee even an $m^{1/2-\varepsilon}$-approximation for any $\varepsilon > 0$ [Dobzinski and Vondr\'ak, 2016]. Together, these establish a stark distinction between computationally-efficient and communication-efficient truthful mechanisms. We show that this distinction disappears with a mild relaxation of truthfulness, which we term implementation in advised strategies, and that has been previously studied in relation to "Implementation in Undominated Strategies" [Babaioff et al, 2009]. Specifically, advice maps a tentative strategy either to that same strategy itself, or one that dominates it. We say that a player follows advice as long as they never play actions which are dominated by advice. A poly-time mechanism guarantees an $\alpha$-approximation in implementation in advised strategies if there exists poly-time advice for each player such that an $\alpha$-approximation is achieved whenever all players follow advice. Using an appropriate bicriterion notion of approximate demand queries (which can be computed in poly-time), we establish that (a slight modification of) the [Assadi and Singla, 2019] mechanism achieves the same $O((\log \log m)^3)$-approximation in implementation in advised strategies

Statistical Model Checking for Stochastic Hybrid Systems

This paper presents novel extensions and applications of the UPPAAL-SMC model checker. The extensions allow for statistical model checking of stochastic hybrid systems. We show how our race-based stochastic semantics extends to networks of hybrid systems, and indicate the integration technique applied for implementing this semantics in the UPPAAL-SMC simulation engine. We report on two applications of the resulting tool-set coming from systems biology and energy aware buildings.Comment: In Proceedings HSB 2012, arXiv:1208.315

Re-mining item associations: methodology and a case study in apparel retailing

Association mining is the conventional data mining technique for analyzing market basket data and it reveals the positive and negative associations between items. While being an integral part of transaction data, pricing and time information have not been integrated into market basket analysis in earlier studies. This paper proposes a new approach to mine price, time and domain related attributes through re-mining of association mining results. The underlying factors behind positive and negative relationships can be characterized and described through this second data mining stage. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through the analysis of data coming from a large apparel retail chain, and its algorithmic complexity is analyzed in comparison to the existing techniques

Information-based complexity, feedback and dynamics in convex programming

We study the intrinsic limitations of sequential convex optimization through the lens of feedback information theory. In the oracle model of optimization, an algorithm queries an {\em oracle} for noisy information about the unknown objective function, and the goal is to (approximately) minimize every function in a given class using as few queries as possible. We show that, in order for a function to be optimized, the algorithm must be able to accumulate enough information about the objective. This, in turn, puts limits on the speed of optimization under specific assumptions on the oracle and the type of feedback. Our techniques are akin to the ones used in statistical literature to obtain minimax lower bounds on the risks of estimation procedures; the notable difference is that, unlike in the case of i.i.d. data, a sequential optimization algorithm can gather observations in a {\em controlled} manner, so that the amount of information at each step is allowed to change in time. In particular, we show that optimization algorithms often obey the law of diminishing returns: the signal-to-noise ratio drops as the optimization algorithm approaches the optimum. To underscore the generality of the tools, we use our approach to derive fundamental lower bounds for a certain active learning problem. Overall, the present work connects the intuitive notions of information in optimization, experimental design, estimation, and active learning to the quantitative notion of Shannon information.Comment: final version; to appear in IEEE Transactions on Information Theor

Competitive Boolean Function Evaluation: Beyond Monotonicity, and the Symmetric Case

We study the extremal competitive ratio of Boolean function evaluation. We provide the first non-trivial lower and upper bounds for classes of Boolean functions which are not included in the class of monotone Boolean functions. For the particular case of symmetric functions our bounds are matching and we exactly characterize the best possible competitiveness achievable by a deterministic algorithm. Our upper bound is obtained by a simple polynomial time algorithm.Comment: 15 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Discrete Applied Mathematic

The Design of Arbitrage-Free Data Pricing Schemes

Motivated by a growing market that involves buying and selling data over the web, we study pricing schemes that assign value to queries issued over a database. Previous work studied pricing mechanisms that compute the price of a query by extending a data seller's explicit prices on certain queries, or investigated the properties that a pricing function should exhibit without detailing a generic construction. In this work, we present a formal framework for pricing queries over data that allows the construction of general families of pricing functions, with the main goal of avoiding arbitrage. We consider two types of pricing schemes: instance-independent schemes, where the price depends only on the structure of the query, and answer-dependent schemes, where the price also depends on the query output. Our main result is a complete characterization of the structure of pricing functions in both settings, by relating it to properties of a function over a lattice. We use our characterization, together with information-theoretic methods, to construct a variety of arbitrage-free pricing functions. Finally, we discuss various tradeoffs in the design space and present techniques for efficient computation of the proposed pricing functions.Comment: full pape