Application of neuro-fuzzy methods for stock market forecasting: a systematic review

Predicting stock prices is a challenging task owing to the market's chaos and uncertainty. Methods based on traditional approaches are unable to provide a solution to the market predictability issue. Thus, contemporary models using accurate neuro-fuzzy systems are found to be the most effective approach to tackling the problem. However, the existing literature lacks a detailed survey of the application of neuro-fuzzy techniques for stock market prediction. This paper presents a systematic literature review of the use of neuro-fuzzy systems for predicting stock market prices and trends.  On this basis, articles issued in various reputed international journals from 2000 to July 2022 were examined, 11 duplicates and 4 non-exclusive articles were removed and, as consequent, 24 eligible studies were retrieved for inclusion. Thus, analysis and discussions were based on two major viewpoints: predictor techniques and accuracy metrics. The review reveals that the researchers, based on their knowledge and research interests, applied a diverse neuro-fuzzy technique and shown stronger preference for certain neuro-fuzzy methods, such as ANFIS. To draw conclusions about the model performance, researchers chose different statistical and non-statistical metrics according to the technique used. It was finally observed that neuro-fuzzy approaches outperform, within its limits, conventional methods. However, each has its own set of constraints regarding the challenges involved in putting it into practice. The complexity of the presented approaches is the most significant potential obstacle that they face. Therefore, stock market prediction is a difficult undertaking, and multiple elements should be considered for accurate prediction. Yet, despite the subject's prominence, there are still promising new frontiers to explore and develop. Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Artificial neural network, Neuro-fuzzy, stock market forecasting JEL Classification: F37 Paper type: Theoretical Research  Predicting stock prices is a challenging task owing to the market's chaos and uncertainty. Methods based on traditional approaches are unable to provide a solution to the market predictability issue. Thus, contemporary models using accurate neuro-fuzzy systems are found to be the most effective approach to tackling the problem. However, the existing literature lacks a detailed survey of the application of neuro-fuzzy techniques for stock market prediction. This paper presents a systematic literature review of the use of neuro-fuzzy systems for predicting stock market prices and trends.  On this basis, articles issued in various reputed international journals from 2000 to July 2022 were examined, 11 duplicates and 4 non-exclusive articles were removed and, as consequent, 24 eligible studies were retrieved for inclusion. Thus, analysis and discussions were based on two major viewpoints: predictor techniques and accuracy metrics. The review reveals that the researchers, based on their knowledge and research interests, applied a diverse neuro-fuzzy technique and shown stronger preference for certain neuro-fuzzy methods, such as ANFIS. To draw conclusions about the model performance, researchers chose different statistical and non-statistical metrics according to the technique used. It was finally observed that neuro-fuzzy approaches outperform, within its limits, conventional methods. However, each has its own set of constraints regarding the challenges involved in putting it into practice. The complexity of the presented approaches is the most significant potential obstacle that they face. Therefore, stock market prediction is a difficult undertaking, and multiple elements should be considered for accurate prediction. Yet, despite the subject's prominence, there are still promising new frontiers to explore and develop. Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Artificial neural network, Neuro-fuzzy, stock market forecasting JEL Classification: F37 Paper type: Theoretical Research &nbsp

The Development of an assistive chair for elderly with sit to stand problems

A thesis submitted to the University of Bedfordshire in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of PhilosophyStanding up from a seated position, known as sit-to-stand (STS) movement, is one of the most frequently performed activities of daily living (ADLs). However, the aging generation are often encountered with STS issues owning to their declined motor functions and sensory capacity for postural control. The motivated is rooted from the contemporary market available STS assistive devices that are lack of genuine interaction with elderly users. Prior to the software implementation, the robot chair platform with integrated sensing footmat is developed with STS biomechanical concerns for the elderly. The work has its main emphasis on recognising the personalised behavioural patterns from the elderly users’ STS movements, namely the STS intentions and personalised STS feature prediction. The former is known as intention recognition while the latter is defined as assistance prediction, both achieved by innovative machine learning techniques. The proposed intention recognition performs well in multiple subjects scenarios with different postures involved thanks to its competence of handling these uncertainties. To the provision of providing the assistance needed by the elderly user, a time series prediction model is presented, aiming to configure the personalised ground reaction force (GRF) curve over time which suggests successful movement. This enables the computation of deficits between the predicted oncoming GRF curve and the personalised one. A multiple steps ahead prediction into the future is also implemented so that the completion time of actuation in reality is taken into account

Modelling of an electro-hydraulic actutor using extended adaptive distance gap statistic approach

The existence of high degree of non-linearity in Electro-Hydraulic Actuator (EHA) system has imposed a challenging task in developing its model so that effective control algorithm can be proposed. In general, there are two modelling approaches available for EHA system, which are the dynamic equation modelling method and the system identification modelling method. Both approaches have disadvantages, where the dynamic equation modelling is hard to apply and some parameters are difficult to obtain, while the system identification method is less accurate when the system’s nature is complicated with wide variety of parameters, nonlinearity and uncertainties. This thesis presents a new modelling procedure of an EHA system by using fuzzy approach. Two sets of input variables are obtained, where the first set of variables are selected based on mathematical modelling of the EHA system. The reduction of input dimension is done by the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method for the second set of input variables. A new gap statistic with a new within-cluster dispersion calculation is proposed by introducing an adaptive distance norm in distance calculation. The new gap statistic applies Gustafson Kessel (GK) clustering algorithm to obtain the optimal number of cluster of each input. GK clustering algorithm also provides the location and characteristic of every cluster detected. The information of input variables, number of clusters, cluster’s locations and characteristics, and fuzzy rules are used to generate initial Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with Takagi-Sugeno type. The initial FIS is trained using Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) hybrid training algorithm with an identification data set. The ANFIS EHA model and ANFIS PCA model obtained using proposed modelling procedure, have shown the ability to accurately estimate EHA system’s performance at 99.58% and 99.11% best fitting accuracy compared to conventional linear Autoregressive with External Input (ARX) model at 94.97%. The models validation result on different data sets also suggests high accuracy in ANFIS EHA and ANFIS PCA model compared to ARX model

An empirical investigation of the demographics of Top Management Team (TMT) and its influence in forecasting organizational outcome in international architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) Firms : a fuzzy set approach

Whereas Top Management Teams (TMTs) are selected to fit a firm’s strategy, prior studies have evidenced that TMTs have significant impact on firm performance. The challenge of the two-way causality has been reflected in previous findings being ambiguous, inconsistent and sometimes conflicted. Pursing the same line of research may lead to incomplete and even error-prone conclusion. In contrast, this research suggests that inconsistency of findings among TMT demographics shown in prior work may point the possibility of studying the black-box nature of such relationships, and provide a tool to future forecast the organization outcome. More specifically, a multi-input (TMT demographics) multi-output (organization outcome) structure was used in this research to explore the future predictability power of TMT demographics for international Architects, Engineers and Construction firms (AEC firms). In order to build a reliable forecasting model, those contradictions were avoided by the utilization of artificial intelligence methods by training, testing and producing results without any prior assumptions or known structures. In particular, the Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) have been employed as a basis for constructing a set of fuzzy “if– then” rules with pre-tested input–output pairs. Three different forecasting strategies were constructed, the findings have demonstrated the learning and potential of the ANFIS model (time series based) in forecasting organization outcome, but at the same time, suggest that distinction should be established among different constructs of TMT demographics and outcome constructs. The results demonstrated that job-related demographics (i.e., TMT Educational Diversity, TMT Functional Diversity and TMT Tenure) could provide a satisfactory forecasting accuracy for the short-span (Liquidity) and medium-span (Cash Flow Stability and Capital Structure) outcome constructs. The future predictability power of other non-job demographics could not be evidenced in this research. Additionally, outcome constructs with dynamic nature could not be forecasted. Lastly, future research opportunities have been suggested for researchers. Most importantly, it includes the need to re-define diversity in the context of TMT composition (having different meaning as in: Variety, Separation and Disparity). Other methodological future opportunities are also suggested at the end of this study

High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications

This open access book was prepared as a Final Publication of the COST Action IC1406 “High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet)“ project. Long considered important pillars of the scientific method, Modelling and Simulation have evolved from traditional discrete numerical methods to complex data-intensive continuous analytical optimisations. Resolution, scale, and accuracy have become essential to predict and analyse natural and complex systems in science and engineering. When their level of abstraction raises to have a better discernment of the domain at hand, their representation gets increasingly demanding for computational and data resources. On the other hand, High Performance Computing typically entails the effective use of parallel and distributed processing units coupled with efficient storage, communication and visualisation systems to underpin complex data-intensive applications in distinct scientific and technical domains. It is then arguably required to have a seamless interaction of High Performance Computing with Modelling and Simulation in order to store, compute, analyse, and visualise large data sets in science and engineering. Funded by the European Commission, cHiPSet has provided a dynamic trans-European forum for their members and distinguished guests to openly discuss novel perspectives and topics of interests for these two communities. This cHiPSet compendium presents a set of selected case studies related to healthcare, biological data, computational advertising, multimedia, finance, bioinformatics, and telecommunications