Effects of the Henry Hub price on U.S. LNG exports and on gas flows in Western Europe

Natural gas plays an important role in energy supply, and its fields of application are diverse. However, the world’s largest growth potential among fossil fuels is attributed to liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the last few years, the U.S. rapidly increased LNG exports, and it is expected that they will further increase the liquefaction capacities. The cost of the LNG value chain is composed of the natural gas price in the country of origin, and the LNG process costs for liquefaction, transportation, storage, and regasification. Thus, the Henry Hub (HH) price in the U.S. is important for U.S. LNG exports to Western Europe. In this paper, gas flows in Western Europe at the beginning of the 2030s are analyzed if the price at HH is higher or lower than expected. Furthermore, the effect of the HH price on monthly U.S. LNG exports are studied. For the calculations, the global gas market model WEGA is used. The results reveal that the price at HH has a significant effect on annual gas flows in Western Europe and also on U.S. LNG exports during the summer. Furthermore, it is shown that pipeline gas in Western Europe will absorb fluctuations of U.S. LNG exports between the presented scenarios

Arbeitsbericht Nr. 2019-01, April 2019

Natural gas plays an important role in Europe. It is a bridging technology for the transition of the electricity system and has also a significant potential to reduce CO2 emission in the mobility and heating sectors. Nevertheless, Europe is strongly dependent on imports of natural gas. While it is expected that European gas demand declines in long-term, indigenous production in Europe also declines. Thus, European import dependency persists. An important supplier of natural gas is Russia. Even if Russia should increase its market share, there is still enough transport capacity existing to bring Russian gas to Europe. However, the pipeline Nord Stream 2 with an additional annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) is under construction. This pipeline probably starts operation in 2020 and has the potential to change gas flows in Europe significantly. Stadtwerke München GmbH (SWM) operate the worldwide gas market model WEGA to calculate gas flows and gas prices in daily resolution until 2040. This model is based on the commercial solution Pegasus from Pöyry Management Consulting. Public sources as well as commercial services are used by SWM to constantly update the dataset of WEGA. For plausibility checks, NBP, NCG and TTF future prices are also frequently calculated. To analyse the impact of Nord Stream 2 on European gas flows, different scenarios are calculated in WEGA. The following exemplary results of 2028 reveal that Nord Stream 2 has significant effects on European gas flows: Transit flows through Germany increase by 17 bcm in comparison to a scenario without Nord Stream 2. On the other hand, gas flows from Poland to Germany are reduced by 14 bcm due to Nord Stream 2. Other effects are reduced gas flows via Ukraine and a redirection of Norwegian gas (13 bcm) from Germany to other Northwest European countries. Furthermore, Nord Stream 2 has also an impact on European gas prices. In general, this pipeline has a moderate dampening effect, with gas prices in Western Europe falling slightly more than in Eastern Europe

Techno-economic feasibility analysis of low-temperature geothermal heating and cooling

Machbarkeitsanalysen in der frühen Phase der Projektentwicklung sind entscheidend für einen reibungslosen Planungsprozess und tragen maßgeblich zu einer erfolgreichen Umsetzung von oberflächennahen geothermischen (ONG) Systemen zur Wärme- und Kälteversorgung bei. Obwohl die Versorgungssicherheit und Betriebseffizienz der ONG hinreichend demonstriert ist, wird eine weite Marktverbreitung noch immer durch hohe Anfangsinvestitionen, standortspezifische und komplexe Planungsverfahren sowie konventionelle Technologien, die sich meist durch einfachere Planung und Nutzung auszeichnen, erschwert. Daher sind umfassende Machbarkeitsanalysen, die sowohl wirtschaftliche als auch technische Aspekte berücksichtigen, nicht nur entscheidend, um eine schnelle Projektentwicklung zu ermöglichen, sondern auch, um Kunden und Entscheidungsträgern die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile und technischen Möglichkeiten aufzuzeigen. Trotz der erfolgreichen Umsetzung einiger Best-Practice-Beispiele der ONG für die Versorgung großer industrieller, gewerblicher oder öffentlicher Einrichtungen fehlt es an Wissenstransfer hinsichtlich koordinierter Standortcharakterisierung und erfolgreicher Projektentwicklung. Darüber hinaus ist nur wenig über den tatsächlichen Wärme- und Kältebedarf von Gebäuden und die damit verbundenen Versorgungskosten bekannt, was nicht nur den Nachweis der wirtschaftlichen Vorteile von ONG-Systemen erschwert, sondern auch den gesamten Projekterfolg gefährdet. Um diesen Unzulänglichkeiten zu begegnen und den erforderlichen Umfang einer ganzheitlichen und fundierten technisch-wirtschaftlichen Machbarkeitsanalyse (TWM) großer ONG-Systeme aufzuzeigen, werden in dieser Arbeit einzelne Stufen der TWM an ausgewählten Standorten mit vier verschiedenen Ansätzen analysiert. In Studie 1 wird ein einfacher Ansatz zur Ermittlung des Kühlbedarfs von Gebäuden vorgestellt, indem die installierten Kühlleistungen von Kompressionskältemaschinen anhand von Luftbildern quantifiziert werden. Dies wird am Campus Nord des Karlsruher Instituts für Technologie (KIT) unter Berücksichtigung von 36 luftgekühlten Kältemaschinen mit einer installierten Gesamtkühlleistung von 16 MW demonstriert. Mit zunehmender Leistung werden verbesserte Genauigkeiten von bis zu 85 % erzielt, was auf eine bessere Eignung der Methodik für Großanlagen hinweist. Unter Berücksichtigung der Ergebnisse von Studie 1 wird in Studie 2 die aktuelle Kälteversorgung am Campus Nord weiter analysiert und der Kältebedarf von 23 Campusgebäuden sowie die damit verbundenen Versorgungskosten untersucht. Diese Studie wird im Hinblick auf den beabsichtigten Übergang von der aktuellen dezentralen Kälteversorgung mittels Kältemaschinen zu einem zukunftsfähigen Kältenetz, das durch erneuerbare Kältequellen gespeist werden soll, durchgeführt. Da die erhaltenen Parameter mit Unsicherheiten behaftet sind, wird eine Monte Carlo Simulation durchgeführt, die Kühlkosten zwischen 5,4 und 11,4 Eurocent pro kWh offenbart. Die kumulierten jährlichen Kosten aller betrachteten Gebäude, die hauptsächlich aus den Stromkosten für den Betrieb der Kältemaschinen resultieren, liegen bei 4,5 Mio. € und fordern einen schnellen Umstieg zu einer dezentralen und effizienteren Kälteversorgung durch die Integration von erneuerbaren Kälteversorgungslösungen. Die ganzheitliche Analyse der aktuellen Kälteversorgung erleichtert die Diskussion über weitere Optimierungsmaßnahmen und ermöglicht ein Benchmarking mit anderen Universitäten und Einrichtungen, in denen Kältenetze bereits erfolgreich betrieben werden. Studie 3 analysiert die Wirtschaftlichkeit der ONG unter Berücksichtigung der Investitions- und Betriebskosten am Beispiel eines potenziellen Aquiferspeichers (ATES) zur Wärme- und Kälteversorgung eines spezifischen Gebäudes des Städtischen Klinikums in Karlsruhe, Deutschland. Die ermittelten Investitionskosten beziffern sich auf 1,3 Mio. €, wobei die unterirdischen Installationen mit 60 % den größten Kostenanteil ausmachen. Eine Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse zwischen dem betrachteten ATES und der aktuellen Versorgungstechnologie bestehend aus Kompressionskältemaschinen und Fernwärme zeigt eine Amortisationszeit des ATES-Systems von ca. 3 Jahren. Die effizienteste aller Versorgungsoptionen ist die direkte Kühlung des Gebäudes mittels ATES, was zu einer Stromkostenreduktion von 80 % führt. Darüber hinaus ermöglicht das ATES-System eine CO2-Einsparung von ca. 600 Tonnen pro Jahr, wodurch die potentiellen wirtschaftlichen und ökologischen Vorteile der Technologie verdeutlicht werden. Diese Analyse adressiert das fehlende Bewusstsein für ATES im Allgemeinen und das damit verbundene wirtschaftliche Potenzial im Besonderen, um die ATES Nutzung speziell in Deutschland zu fördern, wo die Technologie den Wärmemarkt bislang noch nicht durchdrungen hat. Da die Verlässlichkeit von gemessenen Untergrundparametern während der Erkundungsphase sich auf die Auslegung und Wirtschaftlichkeit eines ONG-Systems auswirkt, wird in Studie 4 eine ganzheitliche Analyse von Fehlern und Unsicherheiten im Zusammenhang mit kabellos durchgeführten Temperaturmessung vorgenommen. Die auftretenden Fehler werden im Labor ermittelt und anschließend auf vertikale Profile der ungestörten Untergrundtemperatur übertragen, die an einer Erdwärmesonde aufgenommen wurden. Die ermittelte Präzision von 0.011 K und Genauigkeit von -0.11 K gewährleisten eine hohe Zuverlässigkeit der Messungen. Die größte Unsicherheit ergibt sich innerhalb der ersten fünf Meter und resultiert aus der thermischen Zeitkonstante von 4 s. Das schnelle und komfortable Messverfahren führt zu Vorteilen gegenüber herkömmlichen Glasfasermessungen, deren aufgezeichnete Temperaturprofile am Standort als qualitativer Vergleich dienen. Diese Studie soll das Bewusstsein für die Bedeutung einer detaillierten Exploration als Teil einer ganzheitlichen Machbarkeitsanalyse von SGE im Allgemeinen schärfen und speziell zur Weiterentwicklung der kabellosen Messtechnik beitragen

5th generation district heating and cooling systems: A review of existing cases in Europe

Abstract This article investigates 40 thermal networks in operation in Europe that are able to cover both the heating and cooling demands of buildings by means of distributed heat pumps installed at the customer substations. The technology of thermal networks that work at a temperature close to the ground, can strongly contribute to the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector and furthermore exploit a multitude of low temperature heat sources. Nevertheless, the nomenclature used in literature shows that misinterpretations could easily result when comparing the different concepts of thermal networks that operate at a temperature level lower than traditional district heating. The scope of this work is to revise the definitions encountered and to introduce an unambiguous definition of Fifth-Generation District Heating and Cooling networks. A drawback-benefit analysis is presented to identify the pros and cons of such technology. The survey on the current networks shows that on average three Fifth-Generation District Heating and Cooling systems per year have entered the heating and cooling market in the last decade. Pioneer countries in such technology are Germany and Switzerland. For some networks, the assessed Linear Heating Power Demand Density results are lower than the feasibility threshold adopted in traditional district heating. High performances and low non-renewable primary energy factors are achieved in systems that exploit a very high share of renewable or urban excess heat sources. With respect to traditional district heating, the surveyed pumping energy consumptions result one order of magnitude higher, whereas the implemented control strategies can be completely different, leading the network temperature to float freely

The case of residential photovoltaics

This report maps the regulatory features underpinning prosumer activities in Germany. It is structured according to a case study design which was developed to compare different countries and to draw respective lessons on policies which enable the prosumer uptake. With a total installed capacity of 38 GW (2015) PV power has reached a stage of systemic importance for the whole power system. Although residential PV (<10 kWp) accounts for only 13 percent of total installed PV capacity, it is an important segment for several reasons. “Prosuming” — although never defined as an official term in Germany — is both a subject and a driver of the adaptive legislation on the RES support scheme and on system integration of RES. It is the result of a dynamic incentive structure set by both regulatory provisions as well as by market developments and the permanent interplay between these factors, rather than as a result of a targeted prosumer policy. Thus, the challenge this case study is confronted with is to map these factors and their respective interplay over a rather long period of time

Un-Splintering Urbanism: Examining the Integration of Urban Infrastructures

Modern cities today are dependent upon the large infrastructure networks that provide citizens with food, energy, water, telecommunications, transport and waste removal, yet in many cities infrastructures are more than a century old and in need of replacement or repair. The privatisation of many utilities and the often ‘siloed’ management structures of infrastructures can create problems arising from the lack of ‘integrated’ service provision. Today there is a growing discourse around the potential for ‘infrastructure integration’ which is offered as a way to create resource and service efficiencies and to create space for technical and system innovations. There is recognition that future infrastructure needs to be smarter, more cost-efficient and more environmentally friendly and ‘integration’ is often cited as a way to achieve this. However, what exactly is meant by the term infrastructure integration? Although there is broad agreement about the importance of integration, precisely what this means in practice is unclear. This PhD project aims to open the black box of infrastructure integration, to examine the evolving context and the potential of integration and to explore its meanings and implications in theory and practice. The conceptual ideas of the study are grounded on in-depth qualitative research in three cities reflecting different institutional and cultural contexts: Seattle in the United States, Munich in Germany, and Sheffield in the United Kingdom. The approach seeks to test some hypotheses about the links between the institutional, organisational and regulatory context of cities and the potential for urban infrastructure integration. I treat infrastructures as socio-technical systems and I aim to demonstrate that the meanings and implications of infrastructure integration are dependent upon the socio-political institutional frameworks that cities operate in. This research finds three different forms of infrastructure integration: evolutionary integration in Seattle, in which integration arises out of the day to day operational necessities of infrastructure management; innovative integration in Munich, in which integration arises as a result of innovative organisational practices inherent within the city; and aspiring strategic integration in Sheffield, in which the city aims to coordinate the investment priorities of privatised utilities, yet lacks the authority to coerce the privatised utilities to cooperate

An Analysis of the Critical Drivers of Firm Performance for Profitable Grid Owner Companies in Germany

This thesis focuses on the new networking and cooperation phenomenon known as grid owner companies in Germany, in which electricity and gas distribution are governed by rights-of-way contracts. A process began ten years ago to phase out more than 20,000 rights-of-way contracts throughout Germany. Often, a grid owner company is established whose shareholders are the current energy company and the municipality. Moreover, large numbers of rights-of-way contracts between municipalities and energy companies contain options to set up grid owner companies. The main aims of this thesis are to contribute to the understanding of the practical phenomenon of grid owner companies from a financial and legal perspective by identifying the population of German grid owner companies and by analysing the relationships between the firm size, the legal form, the ownership structure and performance of these companies, measured by the Return On Assets ratio (ROA). Based on the philosophical stance of positivism, multiple linear regression analysis using ordinary least squares is applied to sample data from 2010 to 2015 in order to analyse the relationships between the firm size, the legal form, the ownership structure and performance of German grid owner companies. According to the findings, a total of 170 German grid owner companies have been identified. The findings of the research indicate that population and area as proxies for firm size, private participation quota and the legal form of a limited partnership with a limited liability company as a general partner have a positive and significant influence on ROA. This thesis is the first comprehensive study that is solely dedicated to the new phenomenon known as grid owner companies in Germany and provides fundamental financial insights. In particular, municipalities and energy companies that are faced with the decision on the design of a grid owner company are recommended to choose large grid owner companies with the legal form of a limited partnership with a limited liability company as general partner to achieve a high level of firm performance

German Radioactive Waste

This book presents the universal issue of radioactive waste management from the perspective of the German legal system, analysing how lawmakers have responded to the problem of nuclear waste over the course of the last seventy years. In this book, Robert Rybski unwraps and explains the perplexing legal and social issues related to radioactive waste. He takes readers through the entire ‘life-cycle’: from the moment that radioactive material is classified as radioactive waste, through to the period of interim storage, and right up to its final disposal. However, this last step in radioactive waste management (that of final disposal) has not yet been achieved in Germany, or anywhere in the world, and has been the subject of hefty public debate for dozens of years. As a result, the book analyses the most recent regulations in place to enable final disposal. This book will be of interest to energy policy experts, academics and professionals who work in the area of nuclear energy