High performance reliability analysis of phased mission systems

Systems often operate over a set of time periods, known as phases, in which their reliability structure varies and many include both repairable and nonrepairable components. Success for such systems is defined as the completion of all phases, known as a phased mission, without failure. An example of such a system is an aircraft landing gear system during a flight. The Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) method provides the most efficient solution to the unreliability of non-repairable systems whilst for repairable systems Markov or other state-space based methods have been most widely applied. For systems containing both repairable and non-repairable components the repairable modelling methods are normally used, despite having far higher computational expense than the non-repairable methods, since only they are able to handle the dependencies involved. This paper introduces improvements to the BDD method for analysing non-repairable systems as well as an entirely new method that utilises a new modelling technique involving both BDD and Markov techniques

Phased mission analysis using the cause–consequence diagram method

Most reliability analysis techniques and tools assume that a system used for a mission consists of a single phase. However, multiple phases are natural in many missions. A system that can be modelled as a mission consisting of a sequence of phases is called a phased mission system. In this case, for successful completion of each phase the system may have to meet different requirements. System failure during any phase will result in mission failure. Fault tree analysis, binary decision diagrams and Markov techniques have been used to model phased missions. The cause–consequence diagram method is an alternative technique capable of modelling all system outcomes (success and failure) in one logic diagram. [Continues.

Systems reliability for phased missions

The concept of a phased mission has been introduced as a sequential set of objectives that operate over different time intervals. During each phase of the mission, the system may alter such that the logic model, system configuration, or system failure characteristics may change to accomplish a required objective. A new fault tree method has been proposed to enable the probability of failure in each phase to be determined in addition to the whole mission unreliability. Phase changes are assumed to be instantaneous, and component failure rates are assumed to be constant through the mission. For any phase, the method combines the causes of success of previous phases with the causes of failure for the phase being considered to allow both qualitative and quantitative analysis of both phase and mission failure. A new set of Boolean laws is introduced to combine component success and failure events through multiple phases so that the expression for each phase failure can be reduced into minimal form. [Continues.

Automated system design optimisation

The focus of this thesis is to develop a generic approach for solving reliability design optimisation problems which could be applicable to a diverse range of real engineering systems. The basic problem in optimal reliability design of a system is to explore the means of improving the system reliability within the bounds of available resources. Improving the reliability reduces the likelihood of system failure. The consequences of system failure can vary from minor inconvenience and cost to significant economic loss and personal injury. However any improvements made to the system are subject to the availability of resources, which are very often limited. The objective of the design optimisation problem analysed in this thesis is to minimise system unavailability (or unreliability if an unrepairable system is analysed) through the manipulation and assessment of all possible design alterations available, which are subject to constraints on resources and/or system performance requirements. This thesis describes a genetic algorithm-based technique developed to solve the optimisation problem. Since an explicit mathematical form can not be formulated to evaluate the objective function, the system unavailability (unreliability) is assessed using the fault tree method. Central to the optimisation algorithm are newly developed fault tree modification patterns (FTMPs). They are employed here to construct one fault tree representing all possible designs investigated, from the initial system design specified along with the design choices. This is then altered to represent the individual designs in question during the optimisation process. Failure probabilities for specified design cases are quantified by employing Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs). A computer programme has been developed to automate the application of the optimisation approach to standard engineering safety systems. Its practicality is demonstrated through the consideration of two systems of increasing complexity; first a High Integrity Protection System (HIPS) followed by a Fire Water Deluge System (FWDS). The technique is then further-developed and applied to solve problems of multi-phased mission systems. Two systems are considered; first an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and secondly a military vessel. The final part of this thesis focuses on continuing the development process by adapting the method to solve design optimisation problems for multiple multi-phased mission systems. Its application is demonstrated by considering an advanced UAV system involving multiple multi-phased flight missions. The applications discussed prove that the technique progressively developed in this thesis enables design optimisation problems to be solved for systems with different levels of complexity. A key contribution of this thesis is the development of a novel generic optimisation technique, embedding newly developed FTMPs, which is capable of optimising the reliability design for potentially any engineering system. Another key and novel contribution of this work is the capability to analyse and provide optimal design solutions for multiple multi-phase mission systems. Keywords: optimisation, system design, multi-phased mission system, reliability, genetic algorithm, fault tree, binary decision diagra

A bibliography on formal methods for system specification, design and validation

Literature on the specification, design, verification, testing, and evaluation of avionics systems was surveyed, providing 655 citations. Journal papers, conference papers, and technical reports are included. Manual and computer-based methods were employed. Keywords used in the online search are listed

Modelling and Resolution of Dynamic Reliability Problems by the Coupling of Simulink and the Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Object Oriented (SHyFTOO) Library

Dependability assessment is one of the most important activities for the analysis of complex systems. Classical analysis techniques of safety, risk, and dependability, like Fault Tree Analysis or Reliability Block Diagrams, are easy to implement, but they estimate inaccurate dependability results due to their simplified hypotheses that assume the components’ malfunctions to be independent from each other and from the system working conditions. Recent contributions within the umbrella of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment have shown the potential to improve the accuracy of classical dependability analysis methods. Among them, Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton (SHyFTA) is a promising methodology because it can combine a Dynamic Fault Tree model with the physics-based deterministic model of a system process, and it can generate dependability metrics along with performance indicators of the physical variables. This paper presents the Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Object Oriented (SHyFTOO), a Matlab® software library for the modelling and the resolution of a SHyFTA model. One of the novel features discussed in this contribution is the ease of coupling with a Matlab® Simulink model that facilitates the design of complex system dynamics. To demonstrate the utilization of this software library and the augmented capability of generating further dependability indicators, three di erent case studies are discussed and solved with a thorough description for the implementation of the corresponding SHyFTA models

A method for temporal fault tree analysis using intuitionistic fuzzy set and expert elicitation

YesTemporal fault trees (TFTs), an extension of classical Boolean fault trees, can model time-dependent failure behaviour of dynamic systems. The methodologies used for quantitative analysis of TFTs include algebraic solutions, Petri nets (PN), and Bayesian networks (BN). In these approaches, precise failure data of components are usually used to calculate the probability of the top event of a TFT. However, it can be problematic to obtain these precise data due to the imprecise and incomplete information about the components of a system. In this paper, we propose a framework that combines intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to enable quantitative analysis of TFTs of dynamic systems with uncertain data. Experts’ opinions are taken into account to compute the failure probability of the basic events of the TFT as intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Subsequently, for the algebraic approach, the intuitionistic fuzzy operators for the logic gates of TFT are defined to quantify the TFT. On the other hand, for the quantification of TFTs via PN and BN-based approaches, the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are defuzzified to be used in these approaches. As a result, the framework can be used with all the currently available TFT analysis approaches. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is illustrated via application to a practical system and through a comparison of the results of each approach.This work was supported in part by the Mobile IOT: Location Aware project (grant no. MMUE/180025) and Indoor Internet of Things (IOT) Tracking Algorithm Development based on Radio Signal Characterisation project (grant no. FRGS/1/2018/TK08/MMU/02/1). This research also received partial support from DEIS H2020 project (grant no. 732242)