Containing Risk when Maximizing Supply-Chain Performance

The objective of this dissertation is to develop and test an approach that will quantify the level of risk in the supply chain, evaluate the cost and impact of risk mitigation strategies, validate event management protocols pre-implementation, and optimize across a portfolio of risk mitigation strategies. The research integrates a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model and a Discrete Event Simulation model to investigate a production-inventory-transportation problem subject to risk. The MILP model calculates the optimal Net Profit Contribution of the supply chain in the absence of risk. Deviation risks are introduced as volatility in final demand and lead times, with lead time volatility affecting raw material lead times from suppliers to manufacturing plants and finished goods lead times from manufacturing plants to the warehouses. Disruption risks are modelled as temporarily impeding production at the manufacturing plants, in-bound distribution of raw materials from suppliers to the manufacturing plants, and out-bound distribution of finished goods from the manufacturing plants to warehouses. Computational experiments are run to examine the impact of risk on the supply chain. Further experiments explore the consequences of three risk mitigation strategies (inventory placement, expediting, and production flexibility) on supply chain performance in the presence of risk with the aim of discovering whether one strategy dominates or whether a portfolio approach to risk mitigation performs best. In sum, this research seeks to develop a framework that can inform efforts in understanding, planning for and controlling risk in the supply chain

Optimization of a dynamic supply portfolio considering risks and discount’s constraints

Purpose: Nowadays finding reliable suppliers in the global supply chains has become so important for success, because reliable suppliers would lead to a reliable supply and besides that orders of customer are met effectively . Yet, there is little empirical evidence to support this view, hence the purpose of this paper is to fill this need by considering risk in order to find the optimum supply portfolio. Design/methodology/approach: This paper proposes a multi objective model for the supplier selection portfolio problem that uses conditional value at risk (CVaR) criteria to control the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies via scenario analysis. Also we consider discount’s constraints which are common assumptions in supplier selection problems. The proposed approach is capable of determining the optimal supply portfolio by calculating value-at-risk and minimizing conditional value-at-risk. In this study the Reservation Level driven Tchebycheff Procedure (RLTP) which is one of the reference point methods, is used to solve small size of our model through coding in GAMS. As our model is NP-hard; a meta-heuristic approach, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA) which is one of the most efficient methods for optimizing multi objective models, is applied to solve large scales of our model. Findings and Originality/value: In order to find a dynamic supply portfolio, we developed a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model which contains two objectives. One objective minimizes the cost and the other minimizes the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies. CVaR is used as the risk controlling method which emphases on low-probability, high-consequence events. Discount option as a common offer from suppliers is also implanted in the proposed model. Our findings show that the proposed model can help in optimization of a dynamic supplier selection portfolio with controlling the corresponding risks for large scales of real word problems. Practical implications: To approve the capability of our model various numerical examples are made and non-dominated solutions are generated. Sensitive analysis is made for determination of the most important factors. The results shows that how a dynamic supply portfolio would disperse the allocation of orders among the suppliers combined with the allocation of orders among the planning periods, in order to hedge against the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies. Originality/value: This paper provides a novel multi objective model for supplier selection portfolio problem that is capable of controlling delayed, disrupted and defected supplies via scenario analysis. Also discounts, as an option offered from suppliers, are embedded in the model. Due to the large size of the real problems in the field of supplier selection portfolio a meta-heuristic method, NSGA II, is presented for solving the multi objective model. The chromosome represented for the proposed solving methodology is unique and is another contribution of this paper which showed to be adaptive with the essence of supplier selection portfolio problemPeer Reviewe

Considering supply risk for supplier selection using an integrated framework of data envelopment analysis and neural networks

For many years, supplier selection as an important multi-criteria decision has attracted both the researchers and practitioners. Recently, high incidences of natural disasters, terrorism attacks, labor strikes, and other kinds of risks, also known as disruptions, indicate the vulnerability of procurement process to these unpredicted events. In this study, a new framework is introduced to select suppliers while considering the supply risks. In the proposed framework, an expert is asked to determine the reliability of each procurement element (i.e., production, transportation, and communication) based on some proposed risk factors. Then, a distinct Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network is trained to play the role of the expert opinion for estimating the reliability scores of each procurement. In addition to reliabilities, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to take into account the conventional selection criteria: price, delivery, quality, and capacity. A set of Pareto-optimal suppliers is obtained from the combination of efficiencies and reliability scores. Finally, the decision maker is recommended to choose between the non-dominated suppliers. Obtained experiment results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed framework

Synthesis of Optimization and Simulation for Multi-Period Supply Chain Planning with Consideration of Risks

Solutions to deterministic optimizing models for supply chains can be very sensitive to the formulation of the objective function and the choice of planning horizon. We illustrate how multi-period optimizing models may be counterproductive if traditional accounting of revenue and costs is performed and planning occurs with too short a planning horizon. We propose a “value added” complement to traditional financial accounting that allows planning to occur with shorter horizons than previously thought necessary. This dissertation presents a simulation model with an embedded optimizer that can help organizations develop strategies that minimize expected costs or maximize expected contributions to profit while maintaining a designated level of service. Plans are developed with a deterministic optimizing model and each of the decisions for the first period in the planning horizon are implemented within the simulator. Random deviations in demands and in upstream and downstream shipping times are imposed and the state of the system is updated at the end of each simulated period of activity. This process continues iteratively for a chosen number of periods (90 days for this research). Multiple replications are performed using unique random number seeds for each replication. The simulation model generates detailed event logs for each period of simulated activity that are used to analyze supply-chain performance and supply-chain risk. Supply-chain performance is measured with eleven key performance indicators that reveal system behavior at the overall supply-chain level, as well as performance related to individual plants, warehouses, and products. There are three key findings from this research. First, a value-added complement in an optimization model’s objective function can allow planning to occur effectively with a significantly shorter horizon than required when traditional accounting of costs and revenues is employed. Second, solutions with the value-added complement are robust for situations where supply-chain disruptions cause unexpected depletions in inventories at production facilities and warehouses. Third, ceteris paribus, the hybrid multi-period planning approach generates solutions with higher service levels for products with greater revenue per average production-minute, shorter average upstream lead times, and lower coefficients of variation for daily demand

Optimal Global Supply Chain and Warehouse Planning under Uncertainty

A manufacturing company\u27s inbound supply chain consists of various processes such as procurement, consolidation, and warehousing. Each of these processes is the focus of a different chapter in this dissertation. The manufacturer depends on its suppliers to provide the raw materials and parts required to manufacture a finished product. These suppliers can be located locally or overseas with respect to the manufacturer\u27s geographic location. The ordering and transportation lead times are shorter if the supplier is located locally. Just In Time (JIT) or Just In Sequence (JIS) inventory management methods could be practiced by the manufacturer to procure the raw materials and parts from the local supplier and control the inventory levels in the warehouse. In contrast, the lead time for the orders placed with an overseas supplier is usually long because sea-freight is often used as a primary mode of transportation. Therefore, the orders for the raw materials and parts (henceforth, we collectively refer to raw material and part by part) procured from overseas suppliers are usually placed using forecasted order quantities. In Chapter 2, we study the procurement process to reduce the overall expected cost and determine the optimal order quantities as well as the mode of transportation for procurement under forecast and inventory uncertainty. We formulate a two-stage stochastic integer programming model and solve it using the progressive hedging algorithm, a scenario-based decomposition method. Generally, the orders are placed with overseas suppliers using weekly or monthly forecasted demands, and the ordered part is delivered using sea-containers since sea-freight is the primary mode of transportation. However, the end manufacturing warehouse is usually designed to hold around one to two days of parts. To replenish the inventory levels, the manufacturer considered in this research unloads the sea-container that contains the part that needs to be restocked entirely. This may cause over-utilization of the manufacturer\u27s warehouse if an entire week\u27s supply of part is consolidated into a single sea-container. This problem is further aggravated if the manufacturer procures hundreds of different parts from overseas suppliers and stores them in its warehouse. In Chapter 3, we study the time-series forecasting models that help predict the manufacturing company\u27s daily demand quantities for parts with different characteristics. The manufacturer can use these forecasted daily demand quantities to consolidate the sea-containers instead of the weekly forecasted demand. In most cases, there is some discrepancy between the predicted and actual demands for parts, due to which the manufacturer can either have excess inventory or shortages. While excess inventory leads to higher inventory holding costs and warehouse utilization, shortages can result in substantially undesirable consequences, such as the total shutdown of production lines. Therefore, to avoid shortages, the manufacturer maintains predetermined safety stock levels of parts with the suppliers to fulfill the demands arising from shortages. We formulate a chance-constraint optimization model and solve it using the sample approximation approach to determine the daily safety stock levels at the supplier warehouse under forecast error uncertainty. Once the orders are placed with the local and overseas suppliers, they are consolidated into trailers (for local suppliers) and sea-containers (for overseas suppliers). The consolidated trailers and sea-containers are then delivered to the manufacturing plant, where they are stored in the yard until they are called upon for unloading. A detention penalty is incurred on a daily basis for holding a trailer or sea-container. Consolidating orders from different suppliers helps maximize trailer and sea-container space utilization and reduce transportation costs. Therefore, every sea-container and trailer potentially holds a mixture of parts. When a manufacturer needs to replenish the stocks of a given part, the entire sea-container or trailer that contains the required part is unloaded. Thus, some parts that are not imminently needed for production are also unloaded and stored inside the manufacturing warehouse along with the required parts. In Chapter 4, we study a multi-objective optimization model to determine the sea-containers and trailers to be unloaded on a given day to replenish stock levels such that the detention penalties and the manufacturing warehouse utilization are minimized. Once a sea-container or trailer is selected to replenish the warehouse inventory levels, its contents (i.e., pallets of parts) must be unloaded by the forklift operator and then processed by workers to update the stock levels and break down the pallets if needed. Finally, the unloaded and processed part is stored in the warehouse bins or shelves. In Chapter 5, we study the problem of determining the optimal team formation such that the total expected time required to unload, process, and store all the parts contained in the sea-containers and trailers selected for unloading on a given day is minimized

Designing a robust supply chain network against disruptions

Supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions at any stage of the distribution system. These disruptions can be caused by natural disasters, production problems, or labor defects. The consequences of these disruptions may result in significant economic losses or even human deaths. Therefore, it is important to consider any disruption as an important factor in strategic supply chain design. Consequently, the primary outputs of this dissertation include insights for designing robust supply chains that are neither significantly nor adversely impacted by disruptions. The impact of correlated supplier failures is examined and how this problem can be modeled as a variant of a facility location problem is described. Two main problems are defined, the first being the design of a robust supply chain, and the second being the optimization of operational inspection schedules to maintain the quality of an already established supply chain. In this regard, both strategic and operational decisions are considered in the model and (1) a two-stage stochastic programming model; (2) a multi-objective stochastic programming model; and (3) a dynamic programming model are developed to explore the tradeoffs between cost and risk. Three methods are developed to identify optimal and robust solutions: an integer L-shaped method; a hybrid genetic algorithm using Data Envelopment Analysis; and an approximate dynamic programming method. Several sensitivity analyses are performed on the model to see how the model output would be affected by uncertainty. The findings from this dissertation will be able to help both practitioners designing supply chains, as well as policy makers who need to understand the impact of different disruption mitigation strategies on cost and risk in the supply chain

Integrated optimisation for production capacity, raw material ordering and production planning under time and quantity uncertainties based on two case studies

Abstract This paper develops a supply chain (SC) model by integrating raw material ordering and production planning, and production capacity decisions based upon two case studies in manufacturing firms. Multiple types of uncertainties are considered; including: time-related uncertainty (that exists in lead-time and delay) and quantity-related uncertainty (that exists in information and material flows). The SC model consists of several sub-models, which are first formulated mathematically. Simulation (simulation-based stochastic approximation) and genetic algorithm tools are then developed to evaluate several non-parameterised strategies and optimise two parameterised strategies. Experiments are conducted to contrast these strategies, quantify their relative performance, and illustrate the value of information and the impact of uncertainties. These case studies provide useful insights into understanding to what degree the integrated planning model including production capacity decisions could benefit economically in different scenarios, which types of data should be shared, and how these data could be utilised to achieve a better SC system. This study provides insights for small and middle-sized firm management to make better decisions regarding production capacity issues with respect to external uncertainty and/or disruptions; e.g. trade wars and pandemics.</jats:p

Supply chain risk management and artificial intelligence: state of the art and future research directions

Supply chain risk management (SCRM) encompasses a wide variety of strategies aiming to identify, assess, mitigate and monitor unexpected events or conditions which might have an impact, mostly adverse, on any part of a supply chain. SCRM strategies often depend on rapid and adaptive decision-making based on potentially large, multidimensional data sources. These characteristics make SCRM a suitable application area for artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of supply chain literature that addresses problems relevant to SCRM using approaches that fall within the AI spectrum. To that end, an investigation is conducted on the various definitions and classifications of supply chain risk and related notions such as uncertainty. Then, a mapping study is performed to categorise existing literature according to the AI methodology used, ranging from mathematical programming to Machine Learning and Big Data Analytics, and the specific SCRM task they address (identification, assessment or response). Finally, a comprehensive analysis of each category is provided to identify missing aspects and unexplored areas and propose directions for future research at the confluence of SCRM and AI