Optimising Age-Replacement and Extended Non-Renewing Warranty Policies in Lifecycle Costing

This paper analyses the life cycle cost of equipment protected by both base and extended warranty policies from a consumer's perspective. We assume that the equipment has two types of failure: minor and catastrophic. A minor failure can be corrected with minimal repair whereas a catastrophic failure can only be removed by a replacement. It is assumed that equipment is maintained at no charge to the consumer during the warranty period, whereas the consumer is fully charged for any maintenance on failures after the extended warranty expires. We formulate the expected life cycle cost of the equipment under a general failure time distribution, and then for special cases we prove that the optimal replacement and extended warranty policies exists where the expected life cycle cost per unit time is minimised. This is examined with numerical examples. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

The Mean Value Theorem for Integrals Method for Estimating Two-Dimensional Renewal Functions

An important aspect in the provision of a two-dimensional warranty is the expected number of failures of a component during the two-dimensional warranty period. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method to obtain the expected number of failures of a nonrepairable compo­nent from the two-dimensional renewal functions as the so­lution of two-dimensional renewal integral equations through the Mean Value Theorem for Integrals (MeVTI) method. The two-dimensional renewal integral equation involves Lu-Bhattacharyya’s bivariate Weibull model as a two-dimensional failure model. It turns out that the estimation of the expected number of failures using the MeVTI method is close to that of the other method, Riemann-Stieljies method. The bivariate data behaviour of the failures of an automobile component is also studied in this paper

Optimal Warranty Period for Free-replacement Policy of Agm Batteries

The objective of this study is to analyze the suitability of the age-based warranty model and a millage based warranty model for absorbent glass mat batteries (AGM) for the automobile industry. The battery life expectancy can be assessed and described by a combination of different terms such as: state of health (SOH), deep of discharge (DOD), state of energy (SOE) and state of charge (SOC). However, using actual data from the field, the implementation of reliability engineering and statistical modeling we aim to calculate optimal limits for warranty policies that minimize warranty costs. The outcomes of this research will enable battery manufacturers, motor companies and warranty managers in decisions making strategies for cost savings in warranty projects without negatively affecting customer satisfaction

Some contributions to modeling usage sensitive warranty servicing strategies and their analyses

Providing a warranty as a part of a product\u27s sale is a common practice in industry. Parameters of such warranties (e.g., its duration limits, intensity of use) must be carefully specified to ensure their financial viability. A great deal of effort has been accordingly devoted in attempts to reduce the costs of warranties via appropriately designed strategies to service them. many such strategies, that aim to reduce the total expected costs of the warrantor or / and are appealing in other ways such as being more pragmatic to implement - have been suggested in the literature. Design, analysis and optimization of such servicing strategies is thus a topic of great research interest in many fields. In this dissertation, several warranty servicing strategies in two-dimensional warranty regimes, typically defined by a rectangle in the age-usage plane, have been proposed, analyzed and numerically illustrated. Two different approaches of modeling such usage sensitive warranty strategies are considered in the spirit of Jack, Iskandar and Murthy (2009) and Iskandar (2005). An `Accelerated Failure Time\u27 (AFT) formulation is employed to model product degradation resulting due to excessive usage rate of consumers. The focus of this research is on the analysis of warranty costs borne by the manufacturer (or seller or third party warranty providers) subject to various factors such as product\u27s sale price, consumer\u27s usage rate, types and costs of repair actions. By taking into account the impact of the rate of use of an item on its lifetime, a central focus of our research is on warranty cost models that are sensitive to the usage rate. Specifically, except the model in Chapter 4 where the rate at which an item is used is considered to be a random variable; all other warranty servicing policies that we consider, have usage rate as a fixed parameter, and hence are policies conditional on the rate of use. Such an approach allows us to examine the impact of a consumer\u27s usage rate on the expected warranty costs. For the purpose of designing warranties, exploring such sensitivity analysis may in fact suggest putting an upper limit on the rate of use within the warranty contract, as for example in case of new or leased vehicle warranties. A Bayesian approach of modeling 2-D Pro-rated warranty (PRW) with preventive maintenance is considered and explored in the spirit of Huang and Fang (2008). A decision regarding the optimal PRW proportion (paid by the manufacturer to repair failed item) and optimal warranty period that maximizes the expected profit of the rm under different usage rates of the consumers is explored in this research. A Bayesian updating process used in this context combines expert opinions with market data to improve the accuracy of the parameter estimates. The expected profit model investigated here captures the impact of juggling decision variables of 2-D pro-rated warranty and investigates the sensitivity of the total expected profit to the extent of mis-specification in prior information

Imperfect Repair Strategies for Two-Dimensional Warranty

When a repairable product under warranty fails, the manufacturer (warrantor) has the choice to either repair or replace the failed product. When repairing a failed product, the degree of repair which affects the working condition of the product can vary, and this is assumed to have an impact on the cost of the repair. The main motivation of this study is to develop a warranty repair strategy that minimizes the costs associated with servicing the warranty. In this research, the product coverage is represented by a two-dimensional rectangular region with a free-replacement warranty. We propose an imperfect repair strategy that suggests employing imperfect repairs of a predefined degree, in prespecified subregions of the warranty region. The aim is to then minimize the expected warranty servicing cost to the manufacturer by determining the optimal partitioning of the warranty region for the chosen degrees of repair. Two imperfect repair models are considered, and for both, the expressions for the distribution of the times to imperfect repair and the expected warranty servicing cost per product sold are derived. We numerically illustrate our findings and compare the expected costs of the proposed imperfect repair strategy with those of previously developed repair-replacement warranty strategies

Imperfect Repair Strategies for Two-Dimensional Warranty

When a repairable product under warranty fails, the manufacturer (warrantor) has the choice to either repair or replace the failed product. When repairing a failed product, the degree of repair which affects the working condition of the product can vary, and this is assumed to have an impact on the cost of the repair. The main motivation of this study is to develop a warranty repair strategy that minimizes the costs associated with servicing the warranty. In this research, the product coverage is represented by a two-dimensional rectangular region with a free-replacement warranty. We propose an imperfect repair strategy that suggests employing imperfect repairs of a predefined degree, in prespecified subregions of the warranty region. The aim is to then minimize the expected warranty servicing cost to the manufacturer by determining the optimal partitioning of the warranty region for the chosen degrees of repair. Two imperfect repair models are considered, and for both, the expressions for the distribution of the times to imperfect repair and the expected warranty servicing cost per product sold are derived. We numerically illustrate our findings and compare the expected costs of the proposed imperfect repair strategy with those of previously developed repair-replacement warranty strategies

Post-Sale Cost Modeling and Optimization Linking Warranty and Preventive Maintenance

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

A unified methodology of maintenance management for repairable systems based on optimal stopping theory

This dissertation focuses on the study of maintenance management for repairable systems based on optimal stopping theory. From reliability engineering’s point of view, all systems are subject to deterioration with age and usage. System deterioration can take various forms, including wear, fatigue, fracture, cracking, breaking, corrosion, erosion and instability, any of which may ultimately cause the system to fail to perform its required function. Consequently, controlling system deterioration through maintenance and thus controlling the risk of system failure becomes beneficial or even necessary. Decision makers constantly face two fundamental problems with respect to system maintenance. One is whether or when preventive maintenance should be performed in order to avoid costly failures. The other problem is how to make the choice among different maintenance actions in response to a system failure. The whole purpose of maintenance management is to keep the system in good working condition at a reasonably low cost, thus the tradeoff between cost and condition plays a central role in the study of maintenance management, which demands rigorous optimization. The agenda of this research is to develop a unified methodology for modeling and optimization of maintenance systems. A general modeling framework with six classifying criteria is to be developed to formulate and analyze a wide range of maintenance systems which include many existing models in the literature. A unified optimization procedure is developed based on optimal stopping, semi-martingale, and lambda-maximization techniques to solve these models contained in the framework. A comprehensive model is proposed and solved in this general framework using the developed procedure which incorporates many other models as special cases. Policy comparison and policy optimality are studied to offer further insights. Along the theoretical development, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the methodology. The main contribution of this research is that the unified modeling framework and systematic optimization procedure structurize the pool of models and policies, weed out non-optimal policies, and establish a theoretical foundation for further development