1,124 research outputs found
A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Copula Estimation
We propose a novel Dirichlet-based P\'olya tree (D-P tree) prior on the
copula and based on the D-P tree prior, a nonparametric Bayesian inference
procedure. Through theoretical analysis and simulations, we are able to show
that the flexibility of the D-P tree prior ensures its consistency in copula
estimation, thus able to detect more subtle and complex copula structures than
earlier nonparametric Bayesian models, such as a Gaussian copula mixture.
Further, the continuity of the imposed D-P tree prior leads to a more favorable
smoothing effect in copula estimation over classic frequentist methods,
especially with small sets of observations. We also apply our method to the
copula prediction between the S\&P 500 index and the IBM stock prices during
the 2007-08 financial crisis, finding that D-P tree-based methods enjoy strong
robustness and flexibility over classic methods under such irregular market
behaviors
A multivariate piecing-together approach with an application to operational loss data
The univariate piecing-together approach (PT) fits a univariate generalized
Pareto distribution (GPD) to the upper tail of a given distribution function in
a continuous manner. We propose a multivariate extension. First it is shown
that an arbitrary copula is in the domain of attraction of a multivariate
extreme value distribution if and only if its upper tail can be approximated by
the upper tail of a multivariate GPD with uniform margins. The multivariate PT
then consists of two steps: The upper tail of a given copula is cut off and
substituted by a multivariate GPD copula in a continuous manner. The result is
again a copula. The other step consists of the transformation of each margin of
this new copula by a given univariate distribution function. This provides,
altogether, a multivariate distribution function with prescribed margins whose
copula coincides in its central part with and in its upper tail with a GPD
copula. When applied to data, this approach also enables the evaluation of a
wide range of rational scenarios for the upper tail of the underlying
distribution function in the multivariate case. We apply this approach to
operational loss data in order to evaluate the range of operational risk.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ343 the Bernoulli
(http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical
Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm
Vector Multiplicative Error Models: Representation and Inference
The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for positive valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multi-variate extension of such a model, by taking into consideration the possibility that the vector innovation process be contemporaneously correlated. The estimation procedure is hindered by the lack of probability density functions for multivariate positive valued random variables. We suggest the use of copulafunctions and of estimating equations to jointly estimate the parameters of the scale factors and of the correlations of the innovation processes. Empirical applications on volatility indicators are used to illustrate the gains over the equation by equation procedure.
Factor copula models for item response data
Factor or conditional independence models based on copulas are proposed for multivariate discrete data such as item responses. The factor copula models have interpretations of latent maxima/minima (in comparison with latent means) and can lead to more probability in the joint upper or lower tail compared with factor models based on the discretized multivariate normal distribution (or multidimensional normal ogive model). Details on maximum likelihood estimation of parameters for the factor copula model are given, as well as analysis of the behavior of the log-likelihood. Our general methodology is illustrated with several item response data sets, and it is shown that there is a substantial improvement on existing models both conceptually and in fit to data
Asymptotically distribution-free goodness-of-fit testing for tail copulas
Let be an i.i.d. sample from a bivariate
distribution function that lies in the max-domain of attraction of an extreme
value distribution. The asymptotic joint distribution of the standardized
component-wise maxima and is then
characterized by the marginal extreme value indices and the tail copula . We
propose a procedure for constructing asymptotically distribution-free
goodness-of-fit tests for the tail copula . The procedure is based on a
transformation of a suitable empirical process derived from a semi-parametric
estimator of . The transformed empirical process converges weakly to a
standard Wiener process, paving the way for a multitude of asymptotically
distribution-free goodness-of-fit tests. We also extend our results to the
-variate () case. In a simulation study we show that the limit theorems
provide good approximations for finite samples and that tests based on the
transformed empirical process have high power.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1304 in the Annals of
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
A multinomial quadrivariate D-vine copula mixed model for meta-analysis of diagnostic studies in the presence of non-evaluable subjects
Diagnostic test accuracy studies observe the result of a gold standard procedure that defines the presence or absence of a disease and the result of a diagnostic test. They typically report the number of true positives, false positives, true negatives and false negatives. However, diagnostic test outcomes can also be either non-evaluable positives or non-evaluable negatives. We propose a novel model for the meta-analysis of diagnostic studies in the presence of non-evaluable outcomes, which assumes independent multinomial distributions for the true and non-evaluable positives, and, the true and non-evaluable negatives, conditional on the latent sensitivity, specificity, probability of non-evaluable positives and probability of non-evaluable negatives in each study. For the random effects distribution of the latent proportions, we employ a drawable vine copula that can successively model the dependence in the joint tails. Our methodology is demonstrated with an extensive simulation study and applied to data from diagnostic accuracy studies of coronary computed tomography angiography for the detection of coronary artery disease. The comparison of our method with the existing approaches yields findings in the real data application that change the current conclusions
Estimating Discrete Markov Models From Various Incomplete Data Schemes
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition
probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of
observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation
period. In such a case, the estimation of transition probabilities is
straightforwardly made by counting one-step moves from a given state to
another. In many real-life problems, however, the inference is much more
difficult as state sequences are not fully observed, namely the state of each
individual is known only for some given values of the time variable. A review
of the problem is given, focusing on Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms
to perform Bayesian inference and evaluate posterior distributions of the
transition probabilities in this missing-data framework. Leaning on the
dependence between the rows of the transition matrix, an adaptive MCMC
mechanism accelerating the classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is then
proposed and empirically studied.Comment: 26 pages - preprint accepted in 20th February 2012 for publication in
Computational Statistics and Data Analysis (please cite the journal's paper
- …