Copulae: On the Crossroads of Mathematics and Economics

The central focus of the workshop was on copula theory as well as applications to multivariate stochastic modelling. The programme was intrinsically interdisciplinary and represented areas with much recent progress. The workshop included talks and dynamic discussions on construction, estimation and various applications of copulas to finance, insurance, hydrology, medicine, risk management and related fields

Fitting aggregation operators to data

Theoretical advances in modelling aggregation of information produced a wide range of aggregation operators, applicable to almost every practical problem. The most important classes of aggregation operators include triangular norms, uninorms, generalised means and OWA operators.With such a variety, an important practical problem has emerged: how to fit the parameters/ weights of these families of aggregation operators to observed data? How to estimate quantitatively whether a given class of operators is suitable as a model in a given practical setting? Aggregation operators are rather special classes of functions, and thus they require specialised regression techniques, which would enforce important theoretical properties, like commutativity or associativity. My presentation will address this issue in detail, and will discuss various regression methods applicable specifically to t-norms, uninorms and generalised means. I will also demonstrate software implementing these regression techniques, which would allow practitioners to paste their data and obtain optimal parameters of the chosen family of operators.<br /

Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

Quantitative Finance; Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences; Finance/Investment/Banking; Actuarial Science

Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

Quantitative Finance; Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences; Finance/Investment/Banking; Actuarial Science

The Target-Based Utility Model. The role of Copulas and of Non-Additive Measures

My studies and my Ph.D. thesis deal with topics that recently emerged in the field of decisions under risk and uncertainty. In particular, I deal with the "target-based approach" to utility theory. A rich literature has been devoted in the last decade to this approach to economic decisions: originally, interest had been focused on the "single-attribute" case and, more recently, extensions to "multi-attribute" case have been studied. This literature is still growing, with a main focus on applied aspects. I will, on the contrary, focus attention on some aspects of theoretical type, related with the multi-attribute case. Various mathematical concepts, such as non-additive measures, aggregation functions, multivariate probability distributions, and notions of stochastic dependence emerge in the formulation and the analysis of target-based models. Notions in the field of non-additive measures and aggregation functions are quite common in the modern economic literature. They have been used to go beyond the classical principle of maximization of expected utility in decision theory. These notions, furthermore, are used in game theory and multi-criteria decision aid. Along my work, on the contrary, I show how non-additive measures and aggregation functions emerge in a natural way in the frame of the target-based approach to classical utility theory, when considering the multi-attribute case. Furthermore they combine with the analysis of multivariate probability distributions and with concepts of stochastic dependence. The concept of copula also constitutes a very important tool for this work, mainly for two purposes. The first one is linked to the analysis of target-based utilities, the other one is in the comparison between classical stochastic order and the concept of "stochastic precedence". This topic finds its application in statistics as well as in the study of Markov Models linked to waiting times to occurrences of words in random sampling of letters from an alphabet. In this work I give a generalization of the concept of stochastic precedence and we discuss its properties on the basis of properties of the connecting copulas of the variables. Along this work I also trace connections to reliability theory, whose aim is studying the lifetime of a system through the analysis of the lifetime of its components. The target-based model finds an application in representing the behavior of the whole system by means of the interaction of its components