Smart FRP Composite Sandwich Bridge Decks in Cold Regions

INE/AUTC 12.0

Time series forecasting with the WARIMAX-GARCH method

It is well-known that causal forecasting methods that include appropriately chosen Exogenous Variables (EVs) very often present improved forecasting performances over univariate methods. However, in practice, EVs are usually difficult to obtain and in many cases are not available at all. In this paper, a new causal forecasting approach, called Wavelet Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (WARIMAX-GARCH) method, is proposed to improve predictive performance and accuracy but also to address, at least in part, the problem of unavailable EVs. Basically, the WARIMAX-GARCH method obtains Wavelet “EVs” (WEVs) from Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARIMAX-GARCH) models applied to Wavelet Components (WCs) that are initially determined from the underlying time series. The WEVs are, in fact, treated by the WARIMAX-GARCH method as if they were conventional EVs. Similarly to GARCH and ARIMA-GARCH models, the WARIMAX-GARCH method is suitable for time series exhibiting non-linear characteristics such as conditional variance that depends on past values of observed data. However, unlike those, it can explicitly model frequency domain patterns in the series to help improve predictive performance. An application to a daily time series of dam displacement in Brazil shows the WARIMAX-GARCH method to remarkably outperform the ARIMA-GARCH method, as well as the (multi-layer perceptron) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and its wavelet version referred to as Wavelet Artificial Neural Network (WANN) as in [1], on statistical measures for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting

Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Wavelet Neural Networks: A Practical Guide

Wavelet networks (WNs) are a new class of networks which have been used with great success in a wide range of application. However a general accepted framework for applying WNs is missing from the literature. In this study, we present a complete statistical model identification framework in order to apply WNs in various applications. The following subjects were thorough examined: the structure of a WN, training methods, initialization algorithms, variable significance and variable selection algorithms, model selection methods and finally methods to construct confidence and prediction intervals. In addition the complexity of each algorithm is discussed. Our proposed framework was tested in two simulated cases, in one chaotic time series described by the Mackey-Glass equation and in three real datasets described by daily temperatures in Berlin, daily wind speeds in New York and breast cancer classification. Our results have shown that the proposed algorithms produce stable and robust results indicating that our proposed framework can be applied in various applications

Wavelet-based filtration procedure for denoising the predicted CO2 waveforms in smart home within the Internet of Things

The operating cost minimization of smart homes can be achieved with the optimization of the management of the building's technical functions by determination of the current occupancy status of the individual monitored spaces of a smart home. To respect the privacy of the smart home residents, indirect methods (without using cameras and microphones) are possible for occupancy recognition of space in smart homes. This article describes a newly proposed indirect method to increase the accuracy of the occupancy recognition of monitored spaces of smart homes. The proposed procedure uses the prediction of the course of CO2 concentration from operationally measured quantities (temperature indoor and relative humidity indoor) using artificial neural networks with a multilayer perceptron algorithm. The mathematical wavelet transformation method is used for additive noise canceling from the predicted course of the CO2 concentration signal with an objective increase accuracy of the prediction. The calculated accuracy of CO2 concentration waveform prediction in the additive noise-canceling application was higher than 98% in selected experiments.Web of Science203art. no. 62

A new class of wavelet networks for nonlinear system identification

A new class of wavelet networks (WNs) is proposed for nonlinear system identification. In the new networks, the model structure for a high-dimensional system is chosen to be a superimposition of a number of functions with fewer variables. By expanding each function using truncated wavelet decompositions, the multivariate nonlinear networks can be converted into linear-in-the-parameter regressions, which can be solved using least-squares type methods. An efficient model term selection approach based upon a forward orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm and the error reduction ratio (ERR) is applied to solve the linear-in-the-parameters problem in the present study. The main advantage of the new WN is that it exploits the attractive features of multiscale wavelet decompositions and the capability of traditional neural networks. By adopting the analysis of variance (ANOVA) expansion, WNs can now handle nonlinear identification problems in high dimensions

Cross-Layer Peer-to-Peer Track Identification and Optimization Based on Active Networking

P2P applications appear to emerge as ultimate killer applications due to their ability to construct highly dynamic overlay topologies with rapidly-varying and unpredictable traffic dynamics, which can constitute a serious challenge even for significantly over-provisioned IP networks. As a result, ISPs are facing new, severe network management problems that are not guaranteed to be addressed by statically deployed network engineering mechanisms. As a first step to a more complete solution to these problems, this paper proposes a P2P measurement, identification and optimisation architecture, designed to cope with the dynamicity and unpredictability of existing, well-known and future, unknown P2P systems. The purpose of this architecture is to provide to the ISPs an effective and scalable approach to control and optimise the traffic produced by P2P applications in their networks. This can be achieved through a combination of different application and network-level programmable techniques, leading to a crosslayer identification and optimisation process. These techniques can be applied using Active Networking platforms, which are able to quickly and easily deploy architectural components on demand. This flexibility of the optimisation architecture is essential to address the rapid development of new P2P protocols and the variation of known protocols

Wavelet-Based High-Order Adaptive Modeling of Lossy Interconnects

Abstract—This paper presents a numerical-modeling strategy for simulation of fast transients in lossy electrical interconnects. The proposed algorithm makes use of wavelet representations of voltages and currents along the structure, with the aim of reducing the computational complexity of standard time-domain solvers. A special weak procedure for the implementation of possibly dynamic and nonlinear boundary conditions allows to preserve stability as well as a high approximation order, thus leading to very accurate schemes. On the other hand, the wavelet expansion allows the computation of the solution by using few significant coefficients which are automatically determined at each time step. A dynamically refinable mesh is then used to perform a sparse time-stepping. Several numerical results illustrate the high efficiency of the proposed algorithm, which has been tuned and optimized for best performance in fast digital applications typically found on modern PCB structures. Index Terms—Finite difference methods, time-domain analysis, transmission lines, wavelet transforms. I

Lattice dynamical wavelet neural networks implemented using particle swarm optimisation for spatio-temporal system identification

Starting from the basic concept of coupled map lattices, a new family of adaptive wavelet neural networks, called lattice dynamical wavelet neural networks (LDWNN), is introduced for spatiotemporal system identification, by combining an efficient wavelet representation with a coupled map lattice model. A new orthogonal projection pursuit (OPP) method, coupled with a particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm, is proposed for augmenting the proposed network. A novel two-stage hybrid training scheme is developed for constructing a parsimonious network model. In the first stage, by applying the orthogonal projection pursuit algorithm, significant wavelet-neurons are adaptively and successively recruited into the network, where adjustable parameters of the associated waveletneurons are optimised using a particle swarm optimiser. The resultant network model, obtained in the first stage, may however be redundant. In the second stage, an orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm is then applied to refine and improve the initially trained network by removing redundant wavelet-neurons from the network. The proposed two-stage hybrid training procedure can generally produce a parsimonious network model, where a ranked list of wavelet-neurons, according to the capability of each neuron to represent the total variance in the system output signal is produced. Two spatio-temporal system identification examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed new modelling framework