Abrupt Climate Change and Storm Surge Impacts in Coastal Louisiana in 2050

The most critical hazards impacting the world today are the affects of climate change and global warming. Scientists have been studying the Earth\u27s climate for centuries and have come to agreement that our climate is changing, and has changed, many times abruptly over the history of our planet. This research focuses on the impacts of global warming related to increased hurricane intensities and their surge responses along the coast of the State of Louisiana. Surge responses are quantified for storms that could potentially occur under present climate but 50 years into the future on a coast subjected to current erosion and local subsidence effects. Analyses of projected hurricane intensities influenced by an increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed. Intensities of these storms are projected to increase by 5% per degree of increase in SSTs. A small suite of these storms influenced by global warming and potentially realized by abrupt climate changes are modeled. Simulations of these storms are executed using a storm surge model. The surges produced by these storms are significantly higher than surges produced by presentday storms. These surges are then compared to existing surge frequency distributions along the Louisiana coast

Effects of Surfactants on the Generation of Sea Spray During Tropical Cyclones

Despite significant improvement in computational and observational capabilities, predicting intensity and intensification of major tropical cyclones remains a challenge. In 2017 Hurricane Maria intensified to a Category 5 storm within 24 hours, devastating Puerto Rico. In 2019 Hurricane Dorian, predicted to remain tropical storm, unexpectedly intensified into a Category 5 storm and destroyed the Bahamas. The official forecast and computer models were unable to predict rapid intensification of these storms. One possible reason for this is that key physics, including microscale processes at the air-sea interface, are poorly understood and parameterized in existing forecast models. Under tropical cyclones, the air-sea interface becomes a multiphase environment involving bubbles, foam, and spray. The presence of surface-active materials (surfactants) alters these microscale processes in an unknown way that may affect tropical cyclone intensity. The current understanding of the relationship between surfactants, wind speed, and sea spray generation remains limited. Here we show that surfactants significantly affect the generation of sea spray, which provides some of the fuel for tropical cyclones and their intensification. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was used to simulate spray radii distributions starting from a 100 micrometer radius as observed in laboratory experiments at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences SUSTAIN facility. Results of the model were verified with laboratory experiments and demonstrate that surfactants increase spray generation by 34% under Category 1 tropical cyclone conditions (~40 m s-1 wind). In the model, we simulated Category 1 (4 Nm-2 wind stress), 3 (10 Nm-2 wind stress), and 5 (20 Nm-2 wind stress) conditions and found that surfactants increased spray generation by 20-34%. The global distribution of bio-surfactants on the earth is virtually unknown at this point. Satellite oceanography may be a useful tool to identify the presence of surfactants in the ocean in relation to tropical cyclones. Color satellite imagery of chlorophyll concentration, which is a proxy for surfactants, may assist in identifying surfactant areas that tropical cyclones may pass over. Synthetic aperture radar imagery also may assist in tropical cyclone prediction in areas of oil spills, dispersants, or surfactant slicks. We anticipate that bio-surfactants affect heat, energy, and momentum exchange through altered size distribution and concentration of sea spray, with consequences for tropical cyclone intensification or decline, particularly in areas of algal blooms and near coral reefs, as well as in areas affected by oil spills and dispersants

Oceanic response to the consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto (2019) in the Sargasso Sea

Understanding the oceanic response to tropical cyclones (TCs) is of importance for studies on climate change. Although the oceanic effects induced by individual TCs have been extensively investigated, studies on the oceanic response to the passage of consecutive TCs are rare. In this work, we assess the upper-oceanic response to the passage of Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto over the western Sargasso Sea in 2019 using satellite remote sensing and modelled data. We found that the combined effects of these slow-moving TCs led to an increased oceanic response during the third and fourth post-storm weeks of Dorian (accounting for both Dorian and Humberto effects) because of the induced mixing and upwelling at this time. Overall, anomalies of sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, and mean temperature from the sea surface to a depth of 100 m were 50 %, 63 %, and 57 % smaller (more negative) in the third-fourth post-storm weeks than in the first-second post-storm weeks of Dorian (accounting only for Dorian effects), respectively. For the biological response, we found that surface chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration anomalies, the mean chl a concentration in the euphotic zone, and the chl a concentration in the deep chlorophyll maximum were 16 %, 4 %, and 16 % higher in the third-fourth post-storm weeks than in the first-second post-storm weeks, respectively. The sea surface cooling and increased biological response induced by these TCs were significantly higher (Mann-Whitney test, p < 0.05) compared to climatological records. Our climatological analysis reveals that the strongest TC-induced oceanographic variability in the western Sargasso Sea can be associated with the occurrence of consecutive TCs and long-lasting TC forcing

Dangerous calling, the life-and-death matter of safety at sea: a collection of articles from SAMUDRA Report

Fishing is arguably the world's most dangerous vocation, reporting the highest rate of occupational fatalities among industries, made only worse by declining fish prices, overfished waters and shortened fishing seasons. As fishermen are forced to move farther away from shore in search of scarce resources, the dangers they face are many: bad weather, rough seas, flooding, fire, poor vessel design, mechanical problems navigational error, missing safety equipment. For the small-scale and artisanal fishers of developing countries, these problems are compounded several times over, as this series of articles from SAMUDRA Report reveals. (44pp.

Investigation of Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Persistence in Response to Hydrologic and Climatic Events Using Remote Sensing

Coastal Wetlands (CW) provide numerous imperative functions and provide an economic base for human societies. Therefore, it is imperative to track and quantify both short and long-term changes in these systems. In this dissertation, CW dynamics related to hydro-meteorological signals were investigated using a series of LANDSAT-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and hydro-meteorological time-series data in Apalachicola Bay, Florida, from 1984 to 2015. NDVI in forested wetlands exhibited more persistence compared to that for scrub and emergent wetlands. NDVI fluctuations generally lagged temperature by approximately three months, and water level by approximately two months. This analysis provided insight into long-term CW dynamics in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Long-term studies like this are dependent on optical remote sensing data such as Landsat which is frequently partially obscured due to clouds and this can that makes the time-series sparse and unusable during meteorologically active seasons. Therefore, a multi-sensor, virtual constellation method is proposed and demonstrated to recover the information lost due to cloud cover. This method, named Tri-Sensor Fusion (TSF), produces a simulated constellation for NDVI by integrating data from three compatible satellite sensors. The visible and near-infrared (VNIR) bands of Landsat-8 (L8), Sentinel-2, and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) were utilized to map NDVI and to compensate each satellite sensor\u27s shortcomings in visible coverage area. The quantitative comparison results showed a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) of 0.0020 sr-1 and 0.88, respectively between true observed and fused L8 NDVI. Statistical test results and qualitative performance evaluation suggest that TSF was able to synthesize the missing pixels accurately in terms of the absolute magnitude of NDVI. The fusion improved the spatial coverage of CWs reasonably well and ultimately increases the continuity of NDVI data for long term studies

Forest disturbance and recovery: A general review in the context of spaceborne remote sensing of impacts on aboveground biomass and canopy structure

Abrupt forest disturbances generating gaps \u3e0.001 km2 impact roughly 0.4–0.7 million km2a−1. Fire, windstorms, logging, and shifting cultivation are dominant disturbances; minor contributors are land conversion, flooding, landslides, and avalanches. All can have substantial impacts on canopy biomass and structure. Quantifying disturbance location, extent, severity, and the fate of disturbed biomass will improve carbon budget estimates and lead to better initialization, parameterization, and/or testing of forest carbon cycle models. Spaceborne remote sensing maps large-scale forest disturbance occurrence, location, and extent, particularly with moderate- and fine-scale resolution passive optical/near-infrared (NIR) instruments. High-resolution remote sensing (e.g., ∼1 m passive optical/NIR, or small footprint lidar) can map crown geometry and gaps, but has rarely been systematically applied to study small-scale disturbance and natural mortality gap dynamics over large regions. Reducing uncertainty in disturbance and recovery impacts on global forest carbon balance requires quantification of (1) predisturbance forest biomass; (2) disturbance impact on standing biomass and its fate; and (3) rate of biomass accumulation during recovery. Active remote sensing data (e.g., lidar, radar) are more directly indicative of canopy biomass and many structural properties than passive instrument data; a new generation of instruments designed to generate global coverage/sampling of canopy biomass and structure can improve our ability to quantify the carbon balance of Earth\u27s forests. Generating a high-quality quantitative assessment of disturbance impacts on canopy biomass and structure with spaceborne remote sensing requires comprehensive, well designed, and well coordinated field programs collecting high-quality ground-based data and linkages to dynamical models that can use this information

Vertical Sediment Accretion in Jamaica Bay Wetlands, New York

Over the last century, ~60% of the saltmarsh wetlands in Jamaica Bay (in the Gateway National Recreation Area of the Greater New York City region) have been converted to intertidal or subtidal unvegetated mudflats and projections suggest that all of Jamaica Bay’s saltmarsh wetlands may disappear within the next two decades. After landfall of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and to better understand environmental controls on the maintenance of the remaining Jamaica Bay wetlands, cores were collected from twelve saltmarsh locations in the bay to study the chronology of wetland vertical accretion and mineral sediment accumulation. In association with the United States Geological Survey Wetland and Aquatic Research Center (formerly National Wetlands Research Center), cores were analyzed for 137Cs /210Pb geochronology, percent mineral content, and total water content. Results show that averaged sediment accumulation rates for the wetlands are 0.48 cm-yr-1. Analysis of sediment core mineral content indicates the uneven presence of a mineral-rich surface layer that is likely the result of sediment delivery from Hurricane Sandy. Results also document the presence of numerous subsurface layers of mineral-rich sediment interbedded between zones of organic-rich sediment. Based on various radionuclide chronologies, the estimated time of deposition, mineral-rich layers correspond to the known landfalls of major hurricanes near Jamaica Bay over the last nine decades. Collectively, these results suggest that sediments are delivered unevenly by landfalling hurricanes to coastal wetlands and that other phenomena that flood coastal wetlands with suspended sediments, such as extra-tropical storms, are important sediment sources as well

Technology transfer of NASA microwave remote sensing system

Viable techniques for effecting the transfer from NASA to a user agency of state-of-the-art airborne microwave remote sensing technology for oceanographic applications were studied. A detailed analysis of potential users, their needs and priorities; platform options; airborne microwave instrument candidates; ancillary instrumentation; and other, less obvious factors that must be considered were studied. Conclusions and recommendations for the development of an orderly and effective technology transfer of an airborne microwave system that could meet the specific needs of the selected user agencies are reported

Is the State of the Air-Sea Interface a Factor in Rapid Intensification and Rapid Decline of Tropical Cyclones?

Tropical storm intensity prediction remains a challenge in tropical meteorology. Some tropical storms undergo dramatic rapid intensification and rapid decline. Hurricane researchers have considered particular ambient environmental conditions including the ocean thermal and salinity structure and internal vortex dynamics (e.g., eyewall replacement cycle, hot towers) as factors creating favorable conditions for rapid intensification. At this point, however, it is not exactly known to what extent the state of the sea surface controls tropical cyclone dynamics. Theoretical considerations, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulations suggest that the air-sea interface under tropical cyclones is subject to the Kelvin-Helmholtz type instability. Ejection of large quantities of spray particles due to this instability can produce a two-phase environment, which can attenuate gravity-capillary waves and alter the air-sea coupling. The unified parameterization of waveform and two-phase drag based on the physics of the air-sea interface shows the increase of the aerodynamic drag coefficient with wind speed up to hurricane force ( m s−1). Remarkably, there is a local minimum—“an aerodynamic drag well”—at around m s−1. The negative slope of the dependence on wind-speed between approximately 35 and 60 m s−1favors rapid storm intensification. In contrast, the positive slope of wind-speed dependence above 60 m s−1 is favorable for a rapid storm decline of the most powerful storms. In fact, the storms that intensify to Category 5 usually rapidly weaken afterward