The forecasting of transmission network loads

The forecasting of Eskom transmission electrical network demands is a complex task. The lack of historical data on some of the network components complicates this task even further. In this dissertation a model is suggested which will address all the requirements of the transmission system expansion engineers in terms of future loads and market trends. Suggestions are made with respect to ways of overcoming the lack of historical data, especially on the point loads, which is a key factor in modelling the electrical networks. A brief overview of the transmission electrical network layout is included to provide a better understanding of what is required from such a forecast. Lastly, some theory on multiple regression, neural networks and qualitative forecasting techniques is included, which will be of value for further model developments.ComputingM. Sc. (Operations Research

Novel Algorithms for Modern Power Systems

The restructuring of the electric power industry has brought about many interesting and new problems to be solved by researchers. Some of the problems have been considered and suitable intelligent techniques that have been developed are described in this thesis. A new technique using wavelet transform and neural networks for fault location and protection of a practical tee-circuit has been developed. Fault simulation is carried out using EMTP software. The waveforms obtained from the simulation are then used in wavelet analysis to generate patterns for training and validation, which is carried out using Radial Basis Function network. Dynamic Protection Modelling (DPM) software developed by the University of Strathclyde, Centre for Electrical Power Engineering is used for the evaluation of relay settings. A new approach is proposed to use object oriented techniques and improved genetic algorithms in developing software to estimate generator excitation control system parameters. Simulation studies are carried using data representing a generator, with its transformer connected to an infinite busbar. Application of evolutionary programming to Optimal Power Flow is another technique that is proposed in this work. The objective is to minimize fuel cost keeping the system secure under both normal and contingent states. Studies are carried out using the IEEE - 30 bus test system. A short-term load-forecasting model using Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithm has been developed and tested on data obtained from a power company. It is found that the time taken to obtain a satisfactory solution is long, as the problem is very complex. This points in the direction of evolutionary computing being integrated with parallel processing techniques to solve such practical problems. A novel approach to the formulation and evaluation of transmission loss and line flow through a set of new loss coefficients and distribution factors respectively which are efficient, exact and robust and suitable for real time application is proposed. These loss coefficients and distribution factors are generated from the available load flow solution with trivial computational burden. Results on IEEE Test systems show that the coefficients need not be re-evaluated for wide changes in system operating condition

Smart Distributed Generation System Event Classification using Recurrent Neural Network-based Long Short-term Memory

High penetration of distributed generation (DG) sources into a decentralized power system causes several disturbances, making the monitoring and operation control of the system complicated. Moreover, because of being passive, modern DG systems are unable to detect and inform about these disturbances related to power quality in an intelligent approach. This paper proposed an intelligent and novel technique, capable of making real-time decisions on the occurrence of different DG events such as islanding, capacitor switching, unsymmetrical faults, load switching, and loss of parallel feeder and distinguishing these events from the normal mode of operation. This event classification technique was designed to diagnose the distinctive pattern of the time-domain signal representing a measured electrical parameter, like the voltage, at DG point of common coupling (PCC) during such events. Then different power system events were classified into their root causes using long short-term memory (LSTM), which is a deep learning algorithm for time sequence to label classification. A total of 1100 events showcasing islanding, faults, and other DG events were generated based on the model of a smart distributed generation system using a MATLAB/Simulink environment. Classifier performance was calculated using 5-fold cross-validation. The genetic algorithm (GA) was used to determine the optimum value of classification hyper-parameters and the best combination of features. The simulation results indicated that the events were classified with high precision and specificity with ten cycles of occurrences while achieving a 99.17% validation accuracy. The performance of the proposed classification technique does not degrade with the presence of noise in test data, multiple DG sources in the model, and inclusion of motor starting event in training samples

Miss SAIGON - Missing Signal Appraising in Globally Optimized Networks

Desde a implementação de sistemas elétricos de transporte e distribuição de energia, os operadores de redes sempre focaram-se no conhecimento da rede, quer seja por implementação de sensores de medição e telemetria para medição local e comunicação com centros de controlo, quer por estimação de eventuais estados da rede através de modelização matemática do comportamento da mesma. Com o surgimento dos primeiros Estimadores de Estados, também surge o problema de estimação de topologia no qual é necessário conhecer a topologia correta da rede para executar tais Estimadores de Estados.Por vezes nos centros de controlo, o conhecimento da rede é reduzido, seja pela falha de intercomunicação ou por ausência de medidores locais. Tendo em consideração o vasto historial de uma rede e os estados que as variáveis de medição podem tomar, é possível construir um processador de topologia de modo a determinar o estado de um interruptor, ou seja, se a linha encontra-se aberta ou fechada. Nesta dissertação é demonstrado todos os procedimentos efetuados na formulação de um processador de topologia baseado numa ferramenta de Deep Learning - CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks) - de modo a determinar o estado desse mesmo interruptor em várias situações exemplo com uma boa taxa de acerto mesmo em situações limite de ausência de informação.A topologia interna de uma subestação também é alvo de estudo, no qual, na ausência de medições internas é possível caracterizar o arranjo interno dos interruptores que a constituem. Esta dissertação pretende fornecer uma abordagem do problema de estimação de topologia em cenários reais de fraco conhecimento da rede fornecendo uma boa alternativa aos modelos tradicionais já existentes

Combined Wavelet-neural Clasifier For Power Distribution Systems

Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2002Thesis (M.Sc.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, 2002Bu çalışmada, dağıtım sistemlerinde hibrid “Dalgacık-Yapay Sinir ağı (YSA) tabanlı” bir yaklaşımla arıza sınıflama işlemi gerçeklenmiştir. 34.5 kV “Sağmalcılar-Maltepe” dağıtım sistemi PSCAD/EMTDC yazılımı kullanılarak arıza sınıflayıcı için gereken veri üretilmiştir. Tezin amacı, on farklı kısa-devre sistem arızalarını tanımlayabilecek bir sınıflayıcı tasarlamaktır. Sistemde kullanılan arıza işaretleri 5 kHZ lik örnekleme frekansı ile üretilmiştir. Farklı arıza noktaları ve farklı arıza oluşum açılarındaki hat-akımları ve hat-toprak gerilimlerini içeren sistem arızaları ile bir veritabanı oluşturulmuştur. “Çoklu-çözünürlük işaret ayrıştırma” tekniği kullanılarak altı-kanal akım ve gerilim örneklerinden karakteristik bigi çıkarılmıştır. PSCAD/EMTDC ile üretilen veri bu şekilde bir ön islemden geçirildikten sonra YSA-tabanlı bir yapı ile sınıflama islemi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu yapının görevi çeşitli sistem ve arıza koşullarını kapsayan karmaşık arıza sınıflama problemini çözebilmektir. Bu çalışmada, Kohonen’in öğrenme algoritmasını kullanan bir “Kendine-Organize harita” ile “eğitilebilen vektör kuantalama” teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Bu “dalgacık-sinir ağı” tabanlı arıza sınıflayıcı ile eğitim kümesi için % 99-100 arasında ve sınıflayıcıya daha önce hiç verilmemiş test kümesi ile de %85-92 arasında sınıflama oranları elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen başarım oranları literatürdeki sonuçlara yakındır. Geliştirilen birleşik “dalgacık-sinir ağı” tabanlı sınıflayıcı elektrik dağıtım sistemlerindeki arızaların belirlenmesinde iyi sonuçlar vermiş ve iyi bir performans sağlamıştır.In this study an integrated design of fault classifier in a distribution system by using a hybrid “Wavelet- Artificial neural network (ANN) based” approach is implemented. Data for the fault classifier is produced by using PSCAD/EMTDC simulation program on 34.5 kV “Sagmalcılar-Maltepe” distribution system in Istanbul. The objective is to design a classifier capable of recognizing ten classes of three-phase system faults. The signals are generated at an equivalent sampling rate of 5 KHz per channel. A database of line currents and line-to-ground voltages is built up including system faults at different fault inception angles and fault locations. The characteristic information over six-channel of current and voltage samples is extracted by the “wavelet multi-resolution analysis” technique, which is a preprocessing unit to obtain a small size of interpretable features from the raw data. After preprocessing the raw data, an ANN-based tool was employed for classification task. The main idea in this approach is solving the complex fault (three-phase short-circuit) classification problem under various system and fault conditions. In this project, a self-organizing map, with Kohonen’s learning algorithm and type-one learning vector quantization technique is implemented into the fault classification study. The performance of the wavelet-neural fault classification scheme is found to be around “99-100%” for the training data and around “85-92%” for the test data, which the classifier has not been trained on. This result is comparable to the studied fault classifiers in the literature. Combined wavelet-neural classifier showed a promising future to identify the faults in electric distribution systemsYüksek LisansM.Sc

Optimal Design and Control of Distribution System Capacitors.

The rapidly escalating costs of generation and transmission facilities as well as energy production have focussed attention on the need to optimize system capacity release and energy losses. The problem is generally solved by controlling the voltage or reactive power which also has a pivotal role within the distribution automatization schemes. A review of reactive power compensators and methodologies in designing and controlling distribution capacitors is given. In the presence of voltage source harmonics, a local load reactive power compensation method, cost-constrained power factor optimization using an LC compensator, is discussed. A new methodology based on a piecewise method for designing switchable capacitors installed on large distribution systems is described. Considered is the Var compensation problem concerning the optimal sizing and tap settings of capacitors installed on a radial distribution system such that for a given set of conforming load profiles, the energy and maximum power losses are minimized while the capacitor cost is taken into account. The algorithm is based on tearing the system into smaller subsystems, optimizing the individual subsystems and coordinating the subsystem solutions to yield the overall system optimization. Studies on a test system show the piecewise method to have satisfactory results as well as the significance of using appropriate load models. The extent of benefit of shunt compensator application can be further maximized by providing an appropriate integrated control strategy for the compensators. An expert system using a two-stage artificial neural control network is proposed to control in real time the multitap capacitors installed on a distribution system for a nonconforming load profile such that the system losses are minimized. The first stage of this control network has to predict the load profile from a set of prevailing input data obtained from direct measurements at certain buses as well as from the current tap positions of the capacitors. The second stage of the control network will select the optimal capacitor tap positions based on the load profile obtained in the first stage. The implementation of the control method to the test system shows the expert system to be computationally very efficient while having satisfactory results

Dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users

[EN] The electricity sector is currently undergoing a process of liberalization and separation of roles, which is being implemented under the regulatory auspices of each Member State of the European Union and, therefore, with different speeds, perspectives and objectives that must converge on a common horizon, where Europe will benefit from an interconnected energy market in which producers and consumers can participate in free competition. This process of liberalization and separation of roles involves two consequences or, viewed another way, entails a major consequence from which other immediate consequence, as a necessity, is derived. The main consequence is the increased complexity in the management and supervision of a system, the electrical, increasingly interconnected and participatory, with connection of distributed energy sources, much of them from renewable sources, at different voltage levels and with different generation capacity at any point in the network. From this situation the other consequence is derived, which is the need to communicate information between agents, reliably, safely and quickly, and that this information is analyzed in the most effective way possible, to form part of the processes of decision taking that improve the observability and controllability of a system which is increasing in complexity and number of agents involved. With the evolution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), and the investments both in improving existing measurement and communications infrastructure, and taking the measurement and actuation capacity to a greater number of points in medium and low voltage networks, the availability of data that informs of the state of the network is increasingly higher and more complete. All these systems are part of the so-called Smart Grids, or intelligent networks of the future, a future which is not so far. One such source of information comes from the energy consumption of customers, measured on a regular basis (every hour, half hour or quarter-hour) and sent to the Distribution System Operators from the Smart Meters making use of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). This way, there is an increasingly amount of information on the energy consumption of customers, being stored in Big Data systems. This growing source of information demands specialized techniques which can take benefit from it, extracting a useful and summarized knowledge from it. This thesis deals with the use of this information of energy consumption from Smart Meters, in particular on the application of data mining techniques to obtain temporal patterns that characterize the users of electrical energy, grouping them according to these patterns in a small number of groups or clusters, that allow evaluating how users consume energy, both during the day and during a sequence of days, allowing to assess trends and predict future scenarios. For this, the current techniques are studied and, proving that the current works do not cover this objective, clustering or dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users are developed. These techniques are tested and validated on a database of hourly energy consumption values for a sample of residential customers in Spain during years 2008 and 2009. The results allow to observe both the characterization in consumption patterns of the different types of residential energy consumers, and their evolution over time, and to assess, for example, how the regulatory changes that occurred in Spain in the electricity sector during those years influenced in the temporal patterns of energy consumption.[ES] El sector eléctrico se halla actualmente sometido a un proceso de liberalización y separación de roles, que está siendo aplicado bajo los auspicios regulatorios de cada Estado Miembro de la Unión Europea y, por tanto, con distintas velocidades, perspectivas y objetivos que deben confluir en un horizonte común, en donde Europa se beneficiará de un mercado energético interconectado, en el cual productores y consumidores podrán participar en libre competencia. Este proceso de liberalización y separación de roles conlleva dos consecuencias o, visto de otra manera, conlleva una consecuencia principal de la cual se deriva, como necesidad, otra consecuencia inmediata. La consecuencia principal es el aumento de la complejidad en la gestión y supervisión de un sistema, el eléctrico, cada vez más interconectado y participativo, con conexión de fuentes distribuidas de energía, muchas de ellas de origen renovable, a distintos niveles de tensión y con distinta capacidad de generación, en cualquier punto de la red. De esta situación se deriva la otra consecuencia, que es la necesidad de comunicar información entre los distintos agentes, de forma fiable, segura y rápida, y que esta información sea analizada de la forma más eficaz posible, para que forme parte de los procesos de toma de decisiones que mejoran la observabilidad y controlabilidad de un sistema cada vez más complejo y con más agentes involucrados. Con el avance de las Tecnologías de Información y Comunicaciones (TIC), y las inversiones tanto en mejora de la infraestructura existente de medida y comunicaciones, como en llevar la obtención de medidas y la capacidad de actuación a un mayor número de puntos en redes de media y baja tensión, la disponibilidad de datos sobre el estado de la red es cada vez mayor y más completa. Todos estos sistemas forman parte de las llamadas Smart Grids, o redes inteligentes del futuro, un futuro ya no tan lejano. Una de estas fuentes de información proviene de los consumos energéticos de los clientes, medidos de forma periódica (cada hora, media hora o cuarto de hora) y enviados hacia las Distribuidoras desde los contadores inteligentes o Smart Meters, mediante infraestructura avanzada de medida o Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). De esta forma, cada vez se tiene una mayor cantidad de información sobre los consumos energéticos de los clientes, almacenada en sistemas de Big Data. Esta cada vez mayor fuente de información demanda técnicas especializadas que sepan aprovecharla, extrayendo un conocimiento útil y resumido de la misma. La presente Tesis doctoral versa sobre el uso de esta información de consumos energéticos de los contadores inteligentes, en concreto sobre la aplicación de técnicas de minería de datos (data mining) para obtener patrones temporales que caractericen a los usuarios de energía eléctrica, agrupándolos según estos mismos patrones en un número reducido de grupos o clusters, que permiten evaluar la forma en que los usuarios consumen la energía, tanto a lo largo del día como durante una secuencia de días, permitiendo evaluar tendencias y predecir escenarios futuros. Para ello se estudian las técnicas actuales y, comprobando que los trabajos actuales no cubren este objetivo, se desarrollan técnicas de clustering o segmentación dinámica aplicadas a curvas de carga de consumo eléctrico diario de clientes domésticos. Estas técnicas se prueban y validan sobre una base de datos de consumos energéticos horarios de una muestra de clientes residenciales en España durante los años 2008 y 2009. Los resultados permiten observar tanto la caracterización en consumos de los distintos tipos de consumidores energéticos residenciales, como su evolución en el tiempo, y permiten evaluar, por ejemplo, cómo influenciaron en los patrones temporales de consumos los cambios regulatorios que se produjeron en España en el sector eléctrico durante esos años.[CA] El sector elèctric es troba actualment sotmès a un procés de liberalització i separació de rols, que s'està aplicant davall els auspicis reguladors de cada estat membre de la Unió Europea i, per tant, amb distintes velocitats, perspectives i objectius que han de confluir en un horitzó comú, on Europa es beneficiarà d'un mercat energètic interconnectat, en el qual productors i consumidors podran participar en lliure competència. Aquest procés de liberalització i separació de rols comporta dues conseqüències o, vist d'una altra manera, comporta una conseqüència principal de la qual es deriva, com a necessitat, una altra conseqüència immediata. La conseqüència principal és l'augment de la complexitat en la gestió i supervisió d'un sistema, l'elèctric, cada vegada més interconnectat i participatiu, amb connexió de fonts distribuïdes d'energia, moltes d'aquestes d'origen renovable, a distints nivells de tensió i amb distinta capacitat de generació, en qualsevol punt de la xarxa. D'aquesta situació es deriva l'altra conseqüència, que és la necessitat de comunicar informació entre els distints agents, de forma fiable, segura i ràpida, i que aquesta informació siga analitzada de la manera més eficaç possible, perquè forme part dels processos de presa de decisions que milloren l'observabilitat i controlabilitat d'un sistema cada vegada més complex i amb més agents involucrats. Amb l'avanç de les tecnologies de la informació i les comunicacions (TIC), i les inversions, tant en la millora de la infraestructura existent de mesura i comunicacions, com en el trasllat de l'obtenció de mesures i capacitat d'actuació a un nombre més gran de punts en xarxes de mitjana i baixa tensió, la disponibilitat de dades sobre l'estat de la xarxa és cada vegada major i més completa. Tots aquests sistemes formen part de les denominades Smart Grids o xarxes intel·ligents del futur, un futur ja no tan llunyà. Una d'aquestes fonts d'informació prové dels consums energètics dels clients, mesurats de forma periòdica (cada hora, mitja hora o quart d'hora) i enviats cap a les distribuïdores des dels comptadors intel·ligents o Smart Meters, per mitjà d'infraestructura avançada de mesura o Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). D'aquesta manera, cada vegada es té una major quantitat d'informació sobre els consums energètics dels clients, emmagatzemada en sistemes de Big Data. Aquesta cada vegada major font d'informació demanda tècniques especialitzades que sàpiguen aprofitar-la, extraient-ne un coneixement útil i resumit. La present tesi doctoral versa sobre l'ús d'aquesta informació de consums energètics dels comptadors intel·ligents, en concret sobre l'aplicació de tècniques de mineria de dades (data mining) per a obtenir patrons temporals que caracteritzen els usuaris d'energia elèctrica, agrupant-los segons aquests mateixos patrons en una quantitat reduïda de grups o clusters, que permeten avaluar la forma en què els usuaris consumeixen l'energia, tant al llarg del dia com durant una seqüència de dies, i que permetent avaluar tendències i predir escenaris futurs. Amb aquesta finalitat, s'estudien les tècniques actuals i, en comprovar que els treballs actuals no cobreixen aquest objectiu, es desenvolupen tècniques de clustering o segmentació dinàmica aplicades a corbes de càrrega de consum elèctric diari de clients domèstics. Aquestes tècniques es proven i validen sobre una base de dades de consums energètics horaris d'una mostra de clients residencials a Espanya durant els anys 2008 i 2009. Els resultats permeten observar tant la caracterització en consums dels distints tipus de consumidors energètics residencials, com la seua evolució en el temps, i permeten avaluar, per exemple, com van influenciar en els patrons temporals de consums els canvis reguladors que es van produir a Espanya en el sector elèctric durant aquests anys.Benítez Sánchez, IJ. (2015). Dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/59236TESI

Computational and Numerical Simulations

Computational and Numerical Simulations is an edited book including 20 chapters. Book handles the recent research devoted to numerical simulations of physical and engineering systems. It presents both new theories and their applications, showing bridge between theoretical investigations and possibility to apply them by engineers of different branches of science. Numerical simulations play a key role in both theoretical and application oriented research