Stylistic variation on the Donald Trump Twitter account:a linguistic analysis of tweets posted between 2009 and 2018

Twitter was an integral part of Donald Trump's communication platform during his 2016 campaign. Although its topical content has been examined by researchers and the media, we know relatively little about the style of the language used on the account or how this style changed over time. In this study, we present the first detailed description of stylistic variation on the Trump Twitter account based on a multivariate analysis of grammatical co-occurrence patterns in tweets posted between 2009 and 2018. We identify four general patterns of stylistic variation, which we interpret as representing the degree of conversational, campaigning, engaged, and advisory discourse. We then track how the use of these four styles changed over time, focusing on the period around the campaign, showing that the style of tweets shifts systematically depending on the communicative goals of Trump and his team. Based on these results, we propose a series of hypotheses about how the Trump campaign used social media during the 2016 elections

Predicting the early therapeutic alliance in the treatment of drug misuse

Aims - To predict the early therapeutic alliance from a range of potentially relevant factors, including clients' social relationships, motivation and psychological resources, and counsellors' professional experience and ex-user status. Design - The study recruited 187 clients starting residential rehabilitation treatment for drug misuse in three UK services. Counsellor and client information was assessed at intake, and client and counsellor ratings of the alliance were obtained during weeks 1, 2 and 3. Measurements - The intake assessment battery included scales on psychological wellbeing, treatment motivation, coping strategies and attachment style. Client and counsellor versions of the Working Alliance Inventory (WAI-S) were used for weekly alliance measurement. Hierarchical linear models were used to examine the relationship between alliance and predictor variables. Findings - Clients who had better motivation, coping strategies, social support and a secure attachment style were more likely to develop good alliances. Findings with regard to counsellor characteristics were not clear cut: clients rated their relationships with ex-user counsellors, experienced counsellors and male counsellors as better, but more experienced counsellors rated their alliances as worse. Conclusions - The findings offer important leads as to what interventions might improve the therapeutic alliance. Further work will need to establish whether the therapeutic alliance and ultimately treatment outcomes can be enhanced by working on improving clients' motivation and psychosocial resources

Coping style and health-related quality of life in caregivers of epilepsy patients

Epilepsy has a significant impact on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of patients and personal coping style is an important determinant. Less is known about home caregivers. This study investigates HRQOL and coping style of both patients and caregivers and their interaction. Epilepsy patients attending the outpatient clinic of the University Medical Centre in Utrecht and their caregivers were sent EQ5D and RAND-36 questionnaires. The Utrecht Coping List was used to chart personal coping styles. HRQOL scores of patients and caregivers were compared to the general Dutch population. The association between patient and caregiver HRQOL scores was calculated. A stepwise backward multivariate linear regression analysis was used to explain variances in caregiver HRQOL. Eighty-six couples (49%) returned all questionnaires. Caregiver HRQOL scores were comparable to the general Dutch population (EQ5D: 0.88–0.88; p = 0.90, RAND-36 MCS: −2 points; p = 0.16), while patients HRQOL scores were lower (EQ5D: 0.79; p < 0.01, RAND-36 MCS −10 points; p < 0.01). However, on several specific domains, associations between patient and caregiver HRQOL scores within couples were found. Passive coping style explained 50% of variation in HRQOL scores of caregivers. As a group, caregivers of epilepsy patients have normal HRQOL, but there are significant associations between patient and caregiver HRQOL scores. Improving caregiver HRQOL through interventions on coping style might benefit patients as well. Recognizing personal coping styles of both patient and caregiver should be part of a patient-oriented approach in treatment

Two politicians in a realistic experiment: attraction, discrepancy, intensity of delivery, and attitude change

The leader of the Socialists in the Dutch Parliament and his Liberal opponent participated in this realistic experiment. Identical TV interviews with the two politicians were recorded and shown to subjects of both parties. The intensity of delivery was also varied: emotional versus rational. Our findgins indicated that the experimental interveiw changed the attitude of the subjects. In addition, support was found for a second hypothesis: Attitude change was greater for the attractive source from the same party than for the less attractive source from the opposite party. Furthermore, our expectations were confirmed that attitude change would be greater with high than with low discrepancy. Although the intensity of delivery did have an effect on the credibility of the source–the emotional delivery scored lower–no effect on attitude change was found

Stop Signs: The Intersection of Interdental Fricatives and Identity in Newfoundland

Investigating local linguistic norms to discover larger patterns of language behaviour has been standard practice in sociolinguistic study. Looking closely at socially salient variables reveals patterns that problematize accepted trajectories of variation as traditional and newly emerging sociolinguistic identities interact. This paper integrates findings from multiple complementary projects to describe the forces influencing the stopping of interdental fricatives (dis ting for this thing), a highly salient marker of Newfoundland English, in and around St. John’s, the province’s major city. In urbanizing communities multivariate analysis reveals variation patterns typical of dialect erosion: older men maintain traditional norms while younger women move toward the standard, especially in linguistically salient contexts. In the same communities, a timing-based approach finds that young women seem to be agentively inserting stopped forms, suggesting that they have adopted a system with fricatives as the default choice. When we contrast urban and rural communities and affiliations, we find a more complex pattern: style shifting is greatest among urban males and rural females. We posit that these seemingly divergent patterns result from efforts by speakers to position themselves within the local social landscape during a period of rapid social change

Seeking systematicity in variation : theoretical and methodological considerations on the “variety” concept

One centennial discussion in linguistics concerns whether languages, or linguistic systems, are, essentially, homogeneous or rather show “structured heterogeneity.” In this contribution, the question is addressed whether and how sociolinguistically defined systems (or ‘varieties’) are to be distinguished in a heterogeneous linguistic landscape: to what extent can structure be found in the myriads of language variants heard in everyday language use? We first elaborate on the theoretical importance of this ‘variety question’ by relating it to current approaches from, among others, generative linguistics (competing grammars), sociolinguistics (style-shifting, polylanguaging), and cognitive linguistics (prototype theory). Possible criteria for defining and detecting varieties are introduced, which are subsequently tested empirically, using a self-compiled corpus of spoken Dutch in West Flanders (Belgium). This empirical study demonstrates that the speech repertoire of the studied West Flemish speakers consists of four varieties, viz. a fairly stable dialect variety, a more or less virtual standard Dutch variety, and two intermediate varieties, which we will label ‘cleaned-up dialect’ and ‘substandard.’ On the methodological level, this case-study underscores the importance of speech corpora comprising both inter- and intra-speaker variation on the one hand, and the merits of triangulating qualitative and quantitative approaches on the other

“Because the computer said so!”: Can computational authorship analysis be trusted?

This study belongs to the domain of authorship analysis (AA), a discipline under the umbrella of forensic linguistics in which writing style is analysed as a means of authorship identification. Due to advances in natural language processing and machine learning in recent years, interest in computational methods of AA is gaining over traditional stylistic analysis by human experts. It may only be a matter of time before the software will assist, if not replace, a forensic examiner. But can we trust its verdict? The existing computational methods of AA receive critique for the lack of theoretical motivation, black box methodologies and controversial results, and ultimately, many argue that these are unable to deliver viable forensic evidence. The study replicates a popular algorithm of computational AA in order to open one of the existing black boxes. It takes a closer look at the so-called “bag-of-words” (BoW) approach – a word distributions method used in the majority of AA models, evaluates the parameters that the algorithm bases its conclusions on and offers detailed linguistic explanations for the statistical results these discriminators produce. The framework behind the design of this study draws on multidimensional analysis – a multivariate analytical approach to linguistic variation. By building on the theory of systemic functional linguistics and variationist sociolinguistics, the study takes steps toward solving the existing problem of the theoretical validity of computational AA

Levels and Variations of Violation in Rape.

This chapter investigates the variations in crime scene behaviour revealed in a sample of victim statements in cases of stranger sexual assault. Building on previous findings by Canter and Heritage (1990), and Canter (1994), it was hypothesised that there existed a scale of differing levels of violation by the offender. This scale, based upon actions in the offence, ranged from personal violation, through to physical violation and finally, at the most extreme level, sexual violation. Offences could also be differentiated at the personal and physical levels in terms of hostile, controlling, stealing or involving thematic emphases to the criminal’s actions. To test these hypotheses, crime scene data from the first detected offences of 112 British rapists were analysed using a multi-dimensional scaling procedure to explore the relationships amongst crime scene actions. The results provided empirical support for the four action themes as different expressions of various intensities of violation. The implications that these findings have for the investigation of stranger sexual assault and treatment of victims are discussed

Dynamic dependence networks: Financial time series forecasting and portfolio decisions (with discussion)

We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse patterns of dependence among multiple time series extend existing multivariate volatility models to enable scaling to higher numbers of individual time series. The theory of these "dynamic dependence network" models shows how the individual series can be "decoupled" for sequential analysis, and then "recoupled" for applied forecasting and decision analysis. Decoupling allows fast, efficient analysis of each of the series in individual univariate models that are linked-- for later recoupling-- through a theoretical multivariate volatility structure defined by a sparse underlying graphical model. Computational advances are especially significant in connection with model uncertainty about the sparsity patterns among series that define this graphical model; Bayesian model averaging using discounting of historical information builds substantially on this computational advance. An extensive, detailed case study showcases the use of these models, and the improvements in forecasting and financial portfolio investment decisions that are achievable. Using a long series of daily international currency, stock indices and commodity prices, the case study includes evaluations of multi-day forecasts and Bayesian portfolio analysis with a variety of practical utility functions, as well as comparisons against commodity trading advisor benchmarks.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figures, 3 table

The qualitative assessment of responsiveness to environmental challenge in horses and ponies.

The responsiveness of 10 horses and 10 ponies to environmental challenge (represented by an open field test) was assessed using a qualitative approach based on free choice profiling methodology (FCP), which gives observers complete freedom to choose their own descriptive terms. Data were analysed with generalised Procrustes analysis (GPA), a multivariate statistical technique associated with FCP. A cross-validation of the outcomes of this approach to data recorded through quantitative behaviour analysis, and through a questionnaire given to the animals’ owner/riding instructor, was also performed using principal component analysis (PCA). Twelve undergraduate students generated their own descriptive vocabularies, by watching 20 horse/pony video clips lasting 2.5 min each. GPA showed that the consensus profile explained a high percentage of variation among the 12 observers, and differed significantly from the mean randomised profile ( p < 0.001). Two main dimensions of the consensus profile were identified, explaining 60% and 5.2% of the variation between animals, respectively. The 12 observer word charts interpreting these dimensions were semantically consistent, as they all converged towards the same meaning, albeit using different terms. The most used term to describe the positive end of axis 1 was ‘‘quiet’’, whereas ‘‘attentive’’ was the best positive descriptor of axis 2. The most frequently used descriptors for the negative ends of axes 1 and 2 were ‘‘nervous’’ and ‘‘bored’’, respectively. Thus, axis 1 was labelled as ‘‘quiet/nervous’’ and axis 2 was named as ‘‘attentive/bored’’. A marked effect of animal category was observed on the scores of the animals on the first dimension ( p < 0.001). Horses received significantly higher scores, and were thus assessed as more quiet and calm, than ponies. Conversely, ponies tended to receive lower scores on the second dimension ( p < 0.12), therefore they appeared less curious and attentive. The results of the PCA showed that the variables from different types of measurement clearly had meaningful relationships. For instance, the variables with the highest loading on the positive end of axis 1 were all indicative of tractable and docile animals, whereas axis 2 showed high loadings on the positive end for variables indicating attentive animals. Qualitative behaviour assessment proved to be an appropriate methodology for the study of horse behavioural responsiveness, in that it provided a multifaceted characterisation of horse behavioural expression that was in agreement with other quantitative and subjective assessments of the animals’ behaviour