Chaos to Permanence - Through Control Theory

Work by Cushing et al. [18] and Kot et al. [60] demonstrate that chaotic behavior does occur in biological systems. We demonstrate that chaotic behavior can enable the survival/thriving of the species involved in a system. We adopt the concepts of persistence/permanence as measures of survival/thriving of the species [35]. We utilize present chaotic behavior and a control algorithm based on [66, 72] to push a non-permanent system into permanence. The algorithm uses the chaotic orbits present in the system to obtain the desired state. We apply the algorithm to a Lotka-Volterra type two-prey, one-predator model from [30], a ratio-dependent one-prey, two-predator model from [35] and a simple prey-specialist predator-generalist predator (for ex: plant-insect pest-spider) interaction model [67] and demonstrate its effectiveness in taking advantage of chaotic behavior to achieve a desirable state for all species involved

Chaos to Permanence-Through Control Theory

Work by Cushing et al. \cite{Cushing} and Kot et al. \cite{Kot} demonstrate that chaotic behavior does occur in biological systems. We demonstrate that chaotic behavior can enable the survival/thriving of the species involved in a system. We adopt the concepts of persistence/permanence as measures of survival/thriving of the species \cite{EVG}. We utilize present chaotic behavior and a control algorithm based on \cite{Vincent97,Vincent2001} to push a non-permanent system into permanence. The algorithm uses the chaotic orbits present in the system to obtain the desired state. We apply the algorithm to a Lotka-Volterra type two-prey, one-predator model from \cite{Harvesting}, a ratio-dependent one-prey, two-predator model from \cite{EVG} and a simple prey-specialist predator-generalist predator (for ex: plant-insect pest-spider) interaction model \cite{Upad} and demonstrate its effectiveness in taking advantage of chaotic behavior to achieve a desirable state for all species involved

Nonlinear dynamics of plankton ecosystem with impulsive control and environmental fluctuations

It is well known that the density of plankton populations always increases and decreases or keeps invariant for a long time, and the variation of plankton density is an important factor influencing the real aquatic environments, why do these situations occur? It is an interesting topic which has become the common interest for many researchers. As the basis of the food webs in oceans, lakes, and reservoirs, plankton plays a significant role in the material circulation and energy flow for real aquatic ecosystems that have a great effect on the economic and social values. Planktonic blooms can occur in some environments, however, and the direct or indirect adverse effects of planktonic blooms on real aquatic ecosystems, such as water quality, water landscape, aquaculture development, are sometimes catastrophic, and thus planktonic blooms have become a challenging and intractable problem worldwide in recent years. Therefore, to understand these effects so that some necessary measures can be taken, it is important and meaningful to investigate the dynamic growth mechanism of plankton and reveal the dynamics mechanisms of formation and disappearance of planktonic blooms. To this end, based on the background of the ecological environments in the subtropical lakes and reservoirs, this dissertation research takes mainly the planktonic algae as the research objective to model the mechanisms of plankton growth and evolution. In this dissertation, some theories related to population dynamics, impulsive control dynamics, stochastic dynamics, as well as the methods of dynamic modeling, dynamic analysis and experimental simulation, are applied to reveal the effects of some key biological factors on the dynamics mechanisms of the spatial-temporal distribution of plankton and the termination of planktonic blooms, and to predict the dynamics evolutionary processes of plankton growth. The main results are as follows: Firstly, to discuss the prevention and control strategies on planktonic blooms, an impulsive reaction-diffusion hybrid system was developed. On the one hand, the dynamic analysis showed that impulsive control can significantly influence the dynamics of the system, including the ultimate boundedness, extinction, permanence, and the existence and uniqueness of positive periodic solution of the system. On the other hand, some experimental simulations were preformed to reveal that impulsive control can lead to the extinction and permanence of population directly. More precisely, the prey and intermediate predator populations can coexist at any time and location of their inhabited domain, while the top predator population undergoes extinction when the impulsive control parameter exceeds some a critical value, which can provide some key arguments to control population survival by means of some reaction-diffusion impulsive hybrid systems in the real life. Additionally, a heterogeneous environment can affect the spatial distribution of plankton and change the temporal-spatial oscillation of plankton distribution. All results are expected to be helpful in the study of dynamic complex of ecosystems. Secondly, a stochastic phytoplankton-zooplankton system with toxic phytoplankton was proposed and the effects of environmental stochasticity and toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) on the dynamics mechanisms of the termination of planktonic blooms were discussed. The research illustrated that white noise can aggravate the stochastic oscillation of plankton density and a high-level intensity of white noise can accelerate the extinction of plankton and may be advantageous for the disappearance of harmful phytoplankton, which imply that the white noise can help control the biomass of plankton and provide a guide for the termination of planktonic blooms. Additionally, some experimental simulations were carried out to reveal that the increasing toxin liberation rate released by TPP can increase the survival chance of phytoplankton population and reduce the biomass of zooplankton population, but the combined effects of those two toxin liberation rates on the changes in plankton are stronger than that of controlling any one of the two TPP. All results suggest that both white noise and TPP can play an important role in controlling planktonic blooms. Thirdly, we established a stochastic phytoplankton-toxic producing phytoplankton-zooplankton system under regime switching and investigated how the white noise, regime switching and TPP affect the dynamics mechanisms of planktonic blooms. The dynamical analysis indicated that both white noise and toxins released by TPP are disadvantageous to the development of plankton and may increase the risk of plankton extinction. Also, a series of experimental simulations were carried out to verify the correctness of the dynamical analysis and further reveal the effects of the white noise, regime switching and TPP on the dynamics mechanisms of the termination of planktonic blooms. On the one hand, the numerical study revealed that the system can switch from one state to another due to regime shift, and further indicated that the regime switching can balance the different survival states of plankton density and decrease the risk of plankton extinction when the density of white noise are particularly weak. On the other hand, an increase in the toxin liberation rate can increase the survival chance of phytoplankton but reduce the biomass of zooplankton, which implies that the presence of toxic phytoplankton may have a positive effect on the termination of planktonic blooms. These results may provide some insightful understanding on the dynamics of phytoplankton-zooplankton systems in randomly disturbed aquatic environments. Finally, a stochastic non-autonomous phytoplankton-zooplankton system involving TPP and impulsive perturbations was studied, where the white noise, impulsive perturbations and TPP are incorporated into the system to simulate the natural aquatic ecological phenomena. The dynamical analysis revealed some key threshold conditions that ensure the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution, plankton extinction and persistence in the mean. In particular, we determined if there is a positive periodic solution for the system when the toxin liberation rate reaches a critical value. Some experimental simulations also revealed that both white noise and impulsive control parameter can directly influence the plankton extinction and persistence in the mean. Significantly, enhancing the toxin liberation rate released by TPP increases the possibility of phytoplankton survival but reduces the zooplankton biomass. All these results can improve our understanding of the dynamics of complex of aquatic ecosystems in a fluctuating environment

Nonlinear Stochastic Systems And Controls: Lotka-Volterra Type Models, Permanence And Extinction, Optimal Harvesting Strategies, And Numerical Methods For Systems Under Partial Observations

This dissertation focuses on a class of stochastic models formulated using stochastic differential equations with regime switching represented by a continuous-time Markov chain, which also known as hybrid switching diffusion processes. Our motivations for studying such processes in this dissertation stem from emerging and existing applications in biological systems, ecosystems, financial engineering, modeling, analysis, and control and optimization of stochastic systems under the influence of random environments, with complete observations or partial observations. The first part is concerned with Lotka-Volterra models with white noise and regime switching represented by a continuous-time Markov chain. Different from the existing literature, the Markov chain is hidden and canonly be observed in a Gaussian white noise in our work. We use a Wonham filter to estimate the Markov chain from the observable evolution of the given process, and convert the original system to a completely observable one. We then establish the regularity, positivity, stochastic boundedness, and sample path continuity of the solution. Moreover, stochastic permanence and extinction using feedback controls are investigated. The second part develops optimal harvest strategies for Lotka-Volterra systems so as to establish economically, ecologically, and environmentally reasonable strategies for populations subject to the risk of extinction. The underlying systems are controlled regime-switching diffusions that belong to the class of singular control problems. We construct upper bounds for the value functions, prove the finiteness of the harvesting value, and derive properties of the value functions. Then we construct explicit chattering harvesting strategies and the corresponding lower bounds for the value functions by using the idea of harvesting only one species at a time. We further show that this is a reasonable candidate for the best lower bound that one can expect. In the last part, we study optimal harvesting problems for a general systems in the case that the Markov chain is hidden and can only be observed in a Gaussian white noise. The Wonham filter is employed to convert the original problem to a completely observable one. Then we treat the resulting optimal control problem. Because the problem is virtually impossible to solve in closed form, our main effort is devoted to developing numerical approximation algorithms. To approximate the value function and optimal strategies, Markov chain approximation methods are used to construct a discrete-time controlled Markov chain. Convergence of the algorithm is proved by weak convergence method and suitable scaling

STOCHASTIC DELAY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH APPLICATIONS IN ECOLOGY AND EPIDEMICS

Mathematical modeling with delay differential equations (DDEs) is widely used for analysis and predictions in various areas of life sciences, such as population dynamics, epidemiology, immunology, physiology, and neural networks. The memory or time-delays, in these models, are related to the duration of certain hidden processes like the stages of the life cycle, the time between infection of a cell and the production of new viruses, the duration of the infectious period, the immune period, and so on. In ordinary differential equations (ODEs), the unknown state and its derivatives are evaluated at the same time instant. In DDEs, however, the evolution of the system at a certain time instant depends on the past history/memory. Introduction of such time-delays in a differential model significantly improves the dynamics of the model and enriches the complexity of the system. Moreover, natural phenomena counter an environmental noise and usually do not follow deterministic laws strictly but oscillate randomly about some average values, so that the population density never attains a fixed value with the advancement of time. Accordingly, stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) models play a prominent role in many application areas including biology, epidemiology and population dynamics, mostly because they can offer a more sophisticated insight through physical phenomena than their deterministic counterparts do. The SDDEs can be regarded as a generalization of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and DDEs.This dissertation, consists of eight Chapters, is concerned with qualitative and quantitative features of deterministic and stochastic delay differential equations with applications in ecology and epidemics. The local and global stabilities of the steady states and Hopf bifurcations with respect of interesting parameters of such models are investigated. The impact of incorporating time-delays and random noise in such class of differential equations for different types of predator-prey systems and infectious diseases is studied. Numerical simulations, using suitable and reliable numerical schemes, are provided to show the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.Chapter 1 provides a brief overview about the topic and shows significance of the study. Chapter 2, is devoted to investigate the qualitative behaviours (through local and global stability of the steady states) of DDEs with predator-prey systems in case of hunting cooperation on predators. Chapter 3 deals with the dynamics of DDEs, of multiple time-delays, of two-prey one-predator system, where the growth of both preys populations subject to Allee effects, with a direct competition between the two-prey species having a common predator. A Lyapunov functional is deducted to investigate the global stability of positive interior equilibrium. Chapter 4, studies the dynamics of stochastic DDEs for predator-prey system with hunting cooperation in predators. Existence and uniqueness of global positive solution and stochastically ultimate boundedness are investigated. Some sufficient conditions for persistence and extinction, using Lyapunov functional, are obtained. Chapter 5 is devoted to investigate Stochastic DDEs of three-species predator prey system with cooperation among prey species. Sufficient conditions of existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solution to the model are established, by constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional. Chapter 6 deals with stochastic epidemic SIRC model with time-delay for spread of COVID-19 among population. The basic reproduction number ℛs0 for the stochastic model which is smaller than ℛ0 of the corresponding deterministic model is deduced. Sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution, using the stochastic Lyapunov functional, and conditions for the extinction of the disease are obtained. In Chapter 7, some numerical schemes for SDDEs are discussed. Convergence and consistency of such schemes are investigated. Chapter 8 summaries the main finding and future directions of research. The main findings, theoretically and numerically, show that time-delays and random noise have a significant impact in the dynamics of ecological and biological systems. They also have an important role in ecological balance and environmental stability of living organisms. A small scale of white noise can promote the survival of population; While large noises can lead to extinction of the population, this would not happen in the deterministic systems without noises. Also, white noise plays an important part in controlling the spread of the disease; When the white noise is relatively large, the infectious diseases will become extinct; Re-infection and periodic outbreaks can also occur due to the time-delay in the transmission terms