Multilevel Weighted Support Vector Machine for Classification on Healthcare Data with Missing Values

This work is motivated by the needs of predictive analytics on healthcare data as represented by Electronic Medical Records. Such data is invariably problematic: noisy, with missing entries, with imbalance in classes of interests, leading to serious bias in predictive modeling. Since standard data mining methods often produce poor performance measures, we argue for development of specialized techniques of data-preprocessing and classification. In this paper, we propose a new method to simultaneously classify large datasets and reduce the effects of missing values. It is based on a multilevel framework of the cost-sensitive SVM and the expected maximization imputation method for missing values, which relies on iterated regression analyses. We compare classification results of multilevel SVM-based algorithms on public benchmark datasets with imbalanced classes and missing values as well as real data in health applications, and show that our multilevel SVM-based method produces fast, and more accurate and robust classification results.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1503.0625

Regional characteristics, opportunity perception and entrepreneurial activities

This paper seeks to better understand the link between regional characteristics and individual entrepreneurship. We combine individual-level GEM data for Western Germany with regional-level data, using multi-level analysis to test our hypotheses. We find no direct link between regional knowledge creation, the economic context and an entrepreneurial culture on the one side and individual business start-up intentions and start-up activity on the other side. However our findings point to the importance of an indirect effect of regional characteristics as knowledge creation, the economic context and an entrepreneurial culture have an effect on the individual perception of founding opportunities which in turn predicted start-up intentions and activity

Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development

A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects

Competition-induced stress does not explain deceptive alarm calling in tufted capuchin monkeys

Tactical deception has long attracted interest because it is often assumed to entail complex cognitive mechanisms. However, systematic evidence of tactical deception is rare and no study has attempted to determine whether such behaviours may be underpinned by relatively simple mechanisms. This study examined whether deceptive alarm calling among wild tufted capuchin monkeys, Cebus apella nigritus, feeding on contestable food resources can be potentially explained by a physiological mechanism, namely increased activation in the adrenocortex and the resulting production of glucocorticoids (GCs; ‘stress hormones’). This was tested experimentally in Iguazu? National Park, Argentina, by manipulating the potential for contest competition over food and noninvasively monitoring GC production through analysis of faecal hormone metabolites. If deceptive false alarms are indeed associated with adreno- cortical activity, it was predicted that the patterns of production of these calls would match the patterns of GC output, generally being higher in callers than noncallers in cases in which food is most contestable, and specifically being higher in callers on those occasions when a deceptive false alarm was produced. This hypothesis was not supported, as (1) GC output was significantly lower in association with the experimental introduction of contestable resources than in natural contexts wherein the potential for contest is lower, (2) within experimental contexts, there was a nonsignificant tendency for noncallers to show higher GC output than callers when food was most contestable, and (3) individuals did not show higher GC levels in cases in which they produced deceptive alarms relative to cases in which they did not. A learned association between the production of alarms and increased access to food may be the most likely cognitive explanation for this case of tactical deception, although unexplored physiological mechanisms also remain possible

Developmental divergence: motor trajectories in children with fragile X syndrome with and without co-occurring autism.

BackgroundAutism spectrum disorder (ASD) is highly prevalent in fragile X syndrome (FXS), affecting 50-70% of males. Motor impairments are a shared feature across autism and FXS that may help to better characterize autism in FXS. As motor skills provide a critical foundation for various language, cognitive, and social outcomes, they may serve an important mechanistic role for autism in FXS. As such, this study aimed to identify differences in motor trajectories across direct assessment and parent-report measures of fine and gross motor development between FXS with and without autism, and typical development, while controlling for cognitive functioning.MethodsThis prospective longitudinal study included 42 children with FXS, 24 of whom also had ASD (FXS + ASD), as well as 40 typically developing children. The Mullen Scales of Early Learning provided a direct measure of fine and gross motor skills, and the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales provided a measure of parent-reported fine and gross motor skills. Random slopes and random intercepts multilevel models were tested to determine divergence in developmental motor trajectories between groups when controlling for cognitive level.ResultsModel results indicated the children with FXS + ASD diverged from TD children by 9-months on all measures of gross and fine motor skills, even when controlling for cognitive level. Results also indicated an early divergence in motor trajectories of fine and gross motor skills between the FXS + ASD and FXS groups when controlling for cognitive level. This divergence was statistically significant by 18 months, with the FXS + ASD showing decelerated growth in motor skills across direct observation and parent-report measures.ConclusionsThis study is the first to examine longitudinal trends in motor development in children with FXS with and without comorbid ASD using both direct assessment and parent-report measures of fine and gross motor. Furthermore, it is among the first to account for nonverbal cognitive delays, a step towards elucidating the isolated role of motor impairments in FXS with and without ASD. Findings underscore the role of motor impairments as a possible signal representing greater underlying genetic liability, or as a potential catalyst or consequence, of co-occurring autism in FXS