Spatio-temporal traffic anomaly detection for urban networks

Urban road networks are often affected by disruptions such as accidents and roadworks, giving rise to congestion and delays, which can, in turn, create a wide range of negative impacts to the economy, environment, safety and security. Accurate detection of the onset of traffic anomalies, specifically Recurrent Congestion (RC) and Nonrecurrent Congestion (NRC) in the traffic networks, is an important ITS function to facilitate proactive intervention measures to reduce the level of severity of congestion. A substantial body of literature is dedicated to models with varying levels of complexity that attempt to identify such anomalies. Given the complexity of the problem, however, very less effort is dedicated to the development of methods that attempt to detect traffic anomalies using spatio-temporal features. Driven both by the recent advances in deep learning techniques and the development of Traffic Incident Management Systems (TIMS), the aim of this research is to develop novel traffic anomaly detection models that can incorporate both spatial and temporal traffic information to detect traffic anomalies at a network level. This thesis first reviews the state of the art in traffic anomaly detection techniques, including the existing methods and emerging machine learning and deep learning methods, before identifying the gaps in the current understanding of traffic anomaly and its detection. One of the problems in terms of adapting the deep learning models to traffic anomaly detection is the translation of time series traffic data from multiple locations to the format necessary for the deep learning model to learn the spatial and temporal features effectively. To address this challenging problem and build a systematic traffic anomaly detection method at a network level, this thesis proposes a methodological framework consisting of (a) the translation layer (which is designed to translate the time series traffic data from multiple locations over the road network into a desired format with spatial and temporal features), (b) detection methods and (c) localisation. This methodological framework is subsequently tested for early RC detection and NRC detection. Three translation layers including connectivity matrix, geographical grid translation and spatial temporal translation are presented and evaluated for both RC and NRC detection. The early RC detection approach is a deep learning based method that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The NRC detection, on the other hand, involves only the application of the CNN. The performance of the proposed approach is compared against other conventional congestion detection methods, using a comprehensive evaluation framework that includes metrics such as detection rates and false positive rates, and the sensitivity analysis of time windows as well as prediction horizons. The conventional congestion detection methods used for the comparison include Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest and Gradient Boost Classifier, all of which are commonly used in the literature. Real-world traffic data from the City of Bath are used for the comparative analysis of RC, while traffic data in conjunction with incident data extracted from Central London are used for NRC detection. The results show that while the connectivity matrix may be capable of extracting features of a small network, the increased sparsity in the matrix in a large network reduces its effectiveness in feature learning compared to geographical grid translation. The results also indicate that the proposed deep learning method demonstrates superior detection accuracy compared to alternative methods and that it can detect recurrent congestion as early as one hour ahead with acceptable accuracy. The proposed method is capable of being implemented within a real-world ITS system making use of traffic sensor data, thereby providing a practically useful tool for road network managers to manage traffic proactively. In addition, the results demonstrate that a deep learning-based approach may improve the accuracy of incident detection and locate traffic anomalies precisely, especially in a large urban network. Finally, the framework is further tested for robustness in terms of network topology, sensor faults and missing data. The robustness analysis demonstrates that the proposed traffic anomaly detection approaches are transferable to different sizes of road networks, and that they are robust in the presence of sensor faults and missing data.Open Acces

Traffic Prediction using Artificial Intelligence: Review of Recent Advances and Emerging Opportunities

Traffic prediction plays a crucial role in alleviating traffic congestion which represents a critical problem globally, resulting in negative consequences such as lost hours of additional travel time and increased fuel consumption. Integrating emerging technologies into transportation systems provides opportunities for improving traffic prediction significantly and brings about new research problems. In order to lay the foundation for understanding the open research challenges in traffic prediction, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of traffic prediction methodologies. Specifically, we focus on the recent advances and emerging research opportunities in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based traffic prediction methods, due to their recent success and potential in traffic prediction, with an emphasis on multivariate traffic time series modeling. We first provide a list and explanation of the various data types and resources used in the literature. Next, the essential data preprocessing methods within the traffic prediction context are categorized, and the prediction methods and applications are subsequently summarized. Lastly, we present primary research challenges in traffic prediction and discuss some directions for future research.Comment: Published in Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies (TR_C), Volume 145, 202

Advances in crowd analysis for urban applications through urban event detection

The recent expansion of pervasive computing technology has contributed with novel means to pursue human activities in urban space. The urban dynamics unveiled by these means generate an enormous amount of data. These data are mainly endowed by portable and radio-frequency devices, transportation systems, video surveillance, satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles, and social networking services. This has opened a new avenue of opportunities, to understand and predict urban dynamics in detail, and plan various real-time services and applications in response to that. Over the last decade, certain aspects of the crowd, e.g., mobility, sentimental, size estimation and behavioral, have been analyzed in detail and the outcomes have been reported. This paper mainly conducted an extensive survey on various data sources used for different urban applications, the state-of-the-art on urban data generation techniques and associated processing methods in order to demonstrate their merits and capabilities. Then, available open-access crowd data sets for urban event detection are provided along with relevant application programming interfaces. In addition, an outlook on a support system for urban application is provided which fuses data from all the available pervasive technology sources and finally, some open challenges and promising research directions are outlined

Big Data for Traffic Estimation and Prediction: A Survey of Data and Tools

Big data has been used widely in many areas including the transportation industry. Using various data sources, traffic states can be well estimated and further predicted for improving the overall operation efficiency. Combined with this trend, this study presents an up-to-date survey of open data and big data tools used for traffic estimation and prediction. Different data types are categorized and the off-the-shelf tools are introduced. To further promote the use of big data for traffic estimation and prediction tasks, challenges and future directions are given for future studies

Opportunities and challenges of geospatial analysis for promoting urban livability in the era of big data and machine learning

Urban systems involve a multitude of closely intertwined components, which are more measurable than before due to new sensors, data collection, and spatio-temporal analysis methods. Turning these data into knowledge to facilitate planning efforts in addressing current challenges of urban complex systems requires advanced interdisciplinary analysis methods, such as urban informatics or urban data science. Yet, by applying a purely data-driven approach, it is too easy to get lost in the ‘forest’ of data, and to miss the ‘trees’ of successful, livable cities that are the ultimate aim of urban planning. This paper assesses how geospatial data, and urban analysis, using a mixed methods approach, can help to better understand urban dynamics and human behavior, and how it can assist planning efforts to improve livability. Based on reviewing state-of-the-art research the paper goes one step further and also addresses the potential as well as limitations of new data sources in urban analytics to get a better overview of the whole ‘forest’ of these new data sources and analysis methods. The main discussion revolves around the reliability of using big data from social media platforms or sensors, and how information can be extracted from massive amounts of data through novel analysis methods, such as machine learning, for better-informed decision making aiming at urban livability improvement

Interactive, multi-purpose traffic prediction platform using connected vehicles dataset

Traffic congestion is a perennial issue because of the increasing traffic demand yet limited budget for maintaining current transportation infrastructure; let alone expanding them. Many congestion management techniques require timely and accurate traffic estimation and prediction. Examples of such techniques include incident management, real-time routing, and providing accurate trip information based on historical data. In this dissertation, a speech-powered traffic prediction platform is proposed, which deploys a new deep learning algorithm for traffic prediction using Connected Vehicles (CV) data. To speed-up traffic forecasting, a Graph Convolution -- Gated Recurrent Unit (GC-GRU) architecture is proposed and analysis of its performance on tabular data is compared to state-of-the-art models. GC-GRU's Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was very close to Transformer (3.16 vs 3.12) while achieving the fastest inference time and a six-fold faster training time than Transformer, although Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) was the fastest in training. Such improved performance in traffic prediction with a shorter inference time and competitive training time allows the proposed architecture to better cater to real-time applications. This is the first study to demonstrate the advantage of using multiscale approach by combining CV data with conventional sources such as Waze and probe data. CV data was better at detecting short duration, Jam and stand-still incidents and detected them earlier as compared to probe. CV data excelled at detecting minor incidents with a 90 percent detection rate versus 20 percent for probes and detecting them 3 minutes faster. To process the big CV data faster, a new algorithm is proposed to extract the spatial and temporal features from the CSV files into a Multiscale Data Analysis (MDA). The algorithm also leverages Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) using the Nvidia Rapids framework and Dask parallel cluster in Python. The results show a seventy-fold speedup in the data Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) of the CV data for the State of Missouri of an entire day for all the unique CV journeys (reducing the processing time from about 48 hours to 25 minutes). The processed data is then fed into a customized UNet model that learns highlevel traffic features from network-level images to predict large-scale, multi-route, speed and volume of CVs. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed model are evaluated by taking different road types, times of day and image snippets of the developed model and comparable benchmarks. To visually analyze the historical traffic data and the results of the prediction model, an interactive web application powered by speech queries is built to offer accurate and fast insights of traffic performance, and thus, allow for better positioning of traffic control strategies. The product of this dissertation can be seamlessly deployed by transportation authorities to understand and manage congestions in a timely manner.Includes bibliographical references

A Data-driven Methodology Towards Mobility- and Traffic-related Big Spatiotemporal Data Frameworks

Human population is increasing at unprecedented rates, particularly in urban areas. This increase, along with the rise of a more economically empowered middle class, brings new and complex challenges to the mobility of people within urban areas. To tackle such challenges, transportation and mobility authorities and operators are trying to adopt innovative Big Data-driven Mobility- and Traffic-related solutions. Such solutions will help decision-making processes that aim to ease the load on an already overloaded transport infrastructure. The information collected from day-to-day mobility and traffic can help to mitigate some of such mobility challenges in urban areas. Road infrastructure and traffic management operators (RITMOs) face several limitations to effectively extract value from the exponentially growing volumes of mobility- and traffic-related Big Spatiotemporal Data (MobiTrafficBD) that are being acquired and gathered. Research about the topics of Big Data, Spatiotemporal Data and specially MobiTrafficBD is scattered, and existing literature does not offer a concrete, common methodological approach to setup, configure, deploy and use a complete Big Data-based framework to manage the lifecycle of mobility-related spatiotemporal data, mainly focused on geo-referenced time series (GRTS) and spatiotemporal events (ST Events), extract value from it and support decision-making processes of RITMOs. This doctoral thesis proposes a data-driven, prescriptive methodological approach towards the design, development and deployment of MobiTrafficBD Frameworks focused on GRTS and ST Events. Besides a thorough literature review on Spatiotemporal Data, Big Data and the merging of these two fields through MobiTraffiBD, the methodological approach comprises a set of general characteristics, technical requirements, logical components, data flows and technological infrastructure models, as well as guidelines and best practices that aim to guide researchers, practitioners and stakeholders, such as RITMOs, throughout the design, development and deployment phases of any MobiTrafficBD Framework. This work is intended to be a supporting methodological guide, based on widely used Reference Architectures and guidelines for Big Data, but enriched with inherent characteristics and concerns brought about by Big Spatiotemporal Data, such as in the case of GRTS and ST Events. The proposed methodology was evaluated and demonstrated in various real-world use cases that deployed MobiTrafficBD-based Data Management, Processing, Analytics and Visualisation methods, tools and technologies, under the umbrella of several research projects funded by the European Commission and the Portuguese Government.A população humana cresce a um ritmo sem precedentes, particularmente nas áreas urbanas. Este aumento, aliado ao robustecimento de uma classe média com maior poder económico, introduzem novos e complexos desafios na mobilidade de pessoas em áreas urbanas. Para abordar estes desafios, autoridades e operadores de transportes e mobilidade estão a adotar soluções inovadoras no domínio dos sistemas de Dados em Larga Escala nos domínios da Mobilidade e Tráfego. Estas soluções irão apoiar os processos de decisão com o intuito de libertar uma infraestrutura de estradas e transportes já sobrecarregada. A informação colecionada da mobilidade diária e da utilização da infraestrutura de estradas pode ajudar na mitigação de alguns dos desafios da mobilidade urbana. Os operadores de gestão de trânsito e de infraestruturas de estradas (em inglês, road infrastructure and traffic management operators — RITMOs) estão limitados no que toca a extrair valor de um sempre crescente volume de Dados Espaciotemporais em Larga Escala no domínio da Mobilidade e Tráfego (em inglês, Mobility- and Traffic-related Big Spatiotemporal Data —MobiTrafficBD) que estão a ser colecionados e recolhidos. Os trabalhos de investigação sobre os tópicos de Big Data, Dados Espaciotemporais e, especialmente, de MobiTrafficBD, estão dispersos, e a literatura existente não oferece uma metodologia comum e concreta para preparar, configurar, implementar e usar uma plataforma (framework) baseada em tecnologias Big Data para gerir o ciclo de vida de dados espaciotemporais em larga escala, com ênfase nas série temporais georreferenciadas (em inglês, geo-referenced time series — GRTS) e eventos espacio- temporais (em inglês, spatiotemporal events — ST Events), extrair valor destes dados e apoiar os RITMOs nos seus processos de decisão. Esta dissertação doutoral propõe uma metodologia prescritiva orientada a dados, para o design, desenvolvimento e implementação de plataformas de MobiTrafficBD, focadas em GRTS e ST Events. Além de uma revisão de literatura completa nas áreas de Dados Espaciotemporais, Big Data e na junção destas áreas através do conceito de MobiTrafficBD, a metodologia proposta contem um conjunto de características gerais, requisitos técnicos, componentes lógicos, fluxos de dados e modelos de infraestrutura tecnológica, bem como diretrizes e boas práticas para investigadores, profissionais e outras partes interessadas, como RITMOs, com o objetivo de guiá-los pelas fases de design, desenvolvimento e implementação de qualquer pla- taforma MobiTrafficBD. Este trabalho deve ser visto como um guia metodológico de suporte, baseado em Arqui- teturas de Referência e diretrizes amplamente utilizadas, mas enriquecido com as característi- cas e assuntos implícitos relacionados com Dados Espaciotemporais em Larga Escala, como no caso de GRTS e ST Events. A metodologia proposta foi avaliada e demonstrada em vários cenários reais no âmbito de projetos de investigação financiados pela Comissão Europeia e pelo Governo português, nos quais foram implementados métodos, ferramentas e tecnologias nas áreas de Gestão de Dados, Processamento de Dados e Ciência e Visualização de Dados em plataformas MobiTrafficB