Forest Clearing in the Pantropics: December 2005–August 2011- Working Paper 283

This report summarizes recent trends in large-scale tropical forest clearing identified by FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action). Our analysis includes 27 countries that accounted for 94 percent of clearing during the period 2000–2005. We highlight countries with relatively large changes since 2005, both declines and increases. FORMA produces indicators that track monthly changes in the number of 1-sq.-km. tropical forest parcels that have experienced clearing with high probability. This report and the accompanying spreadsheet databases provide monthly estimates for 27 countries, 280 primary administrative units, and 2,907 secondary administrative units. Countries’ divergent experiences since 2005 have significantly altered their shares of global clearing in some cases. Brazil’s global share fell by 11.2 percentage points from December 2005 to August 2011, while the combined share of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Myanmar increased by 10.8. The diverse patterns revealed by FORMA’s first global survey caution against facile generalizations about forest clearing in the pantropics. During the past five years, the relative scale and pace of clearing have changed across regions, within regions, and within countries. Although the overall trend seems hopeful, it remains to be seen whether the decline in forest clearing will persist as the global economy recovers.

HOTSPOT VALIDATION OF THE HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE BASED ON MULTISOURCE DATA FOR CENTRAL KALIMANTAN

The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) is the sensor aboard the remote-sensing satellite Himawari-8 which records the Earth’s weather and land conditions every 10 minutes from a geostationary orbit. The imagery produced known as Himawari-8 has 16 bands which cover visible, near infrared, middle infrared and thermal infrared wavelength potentials to monitor forestry phenomena. One of these is forest/land fires, which frequently occur in Indonesia in the dry season. Himawari-8 can detect hotspots in thermal bands 5 and band 7 using absolute fire pixel (AFP) and possible fire pixel (PFP) algorithms. However, validation has not yet been conducted to assess the accuracy of this information. This study aims to validate hotspots identified from Himawari images based on information from Landsat 8 images, field surveys and burnout data. The methodology used to validate hotspots comprises AFP and PFP extraction, determining firespots from Landsat 8, buffering at 2 km from firespots, field surveys, burnout data, and calculation of accuracy. AFP and PFP hotspot validation of firespots from Landsat-8 is found to have higher accuracy than the other options. In using Himawari-8 hotspots to detect land/forest fires in Central Kalimantan, the AFP algorithm with 2km radius has accuracy of 51.33% while the PFP algorithm has accuracy of 27.62%

Analysing Threshold Value in Fire Detection Algorithm Using MODIS Data

Abstract - MODIS instruments have been designed to include special channels for fire monitoring by adding more spectral thermal band detector on them. The basic understanding of remote sensing fire detection should be kept in mind to be able to improve the algorithm for regional scale detection purposes. It still gives many chances for more exploration. This paper describe the principle of fire investigation applied on MODIS data. The main used algorithm in this research is contextual algorithm which has been developed by NASA scientist team. By varying applied threshold of T4 value in the range of 320-360K it shows that detected fire is significantly changed. While significant difference of detected FHS by changing ΔT threshold value is occurred in the range of 15-35K. Improve and adjustment of fire detection algorithm is needed to get the best accuracy result proper to local or regional conditions. MOD14 algorithm is applied threshold values of 325K for T4 and 20K for ΔT. Validation has been done from the algorithm result of MODIS dataset over Indonesia and South Africa. The accuracy of MODIS fire detection by MOD14 algorithm is 73.2% and 91.7% on MODIS data over Sumatra-Borneo and South Africa respectively

Analysing Threshold Value in Fire Detection Algorithm Using MODIS Data

MODIS instruments have been designed to include special channels for fire monitoring by adding more spectral thermal band detector on them. The basic understanding of remote sensing fire detection should be kept in mind to be able to improve the algorithm for regional scale detection purposes. It still gives many chances for more exploration. This paper describes the principle of fire investigation applied on MODIS data. The main used algorithm in this research is contextual algorithm which has been developed by NASA scientist team. By varying applied threshold of T4 value in the range of 320-360K it shows that detected fire is significantly changed. While significant difference of detected FHS by changing ΔT threshold value is occurred in the range of 15-35K. Improve and adjustment of fire detection algorithm is needed to get the best accuracy result proper to local or regional conditions. MOD14 algorithm is applied threshold values of 325K for T4 and 20K for ΔT. Validation has been done from the algorithm result of MODIS dataset over Indonesia and South Africa. The accuracy of MODIS fire detection by MOD14 algorithm is 73.2% and 91.7% on MODIS data over Sumatra-Borneo and South Africa respectively

DETECTION OF FOREST FIRE, SMOKE SOURCE LOCATIONS IN KALIMANTAN DURING THE DRY SEASON FOR THE YEAR 2015 USING LANDSAT 8 FROM THE THRESHOLD OF BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE ALGORITHM

Almost every dry season, there are large forest/land fires in several regions in Indonesia, especially in Kalimantan and Sumatra in the dry season of August to September 2015 a forest fire in 6 provinces namely West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, Riau, Jambi, and South Sumatra. Even some parties proposed that the Government of Indonesia declares them as a national disaster. The low-resolution remote sensing data have been widely used for monitoring the occurrence of forest/land fires (hotspots), and mapping of  burnt scars. The hotspot detection was done by utilizing the data of NOAA-AVHRR and MODIS data which have a lower spatial resolution (1 km). In order to increase the level of detail and accuracy of product information, this research is done by using Landsat 8 TIRS (Thermal Infrared Sensor) band which has a greater spatial resolution of 100 m. The purpose of this research is to find and to determine the threshold value of the brightness temperature of the TIRS data to identify the source of fire smoke. The data used is the Landsat 8 of several parts of Borneo during the period of 24 August to 18 September 2015 recorded by the LAPAN's receiving station. Landsat - 8 TIRS band was converted into brightness temperature in degrees Celsius, then dots in a region that is considered the source of the smoke if the temperature of each pixel in the region > 43oC, and given the attributes with the highest temperatures of the pixels in the region. The source of the smoke was obtained through visual interpretation of the objects in the multispectral Natural Color Composite (NCC) and True Color Composite (TCC) images. Analysis of errors (commission error) is obtained by comparing the temperature detected by TIRS band with a visual appearance of the source of the smoke. The result of the experiment showed that there were detected 9 scenes with high temperatures over 43oC from the 27 scenes Kalimantan Landsat 8 data, which include 153 sites. The accuracy (commission error) of identification results using temperature ≥ 51°C is 0%, temperature ≥ 47°C is 10%, and temperature ≥ 43°C is 30.5%

Spatial-temporal Patterns of MODIS Active Fire/Hotspots in Chiang Rai, Upper Northern Thailand and the Greater Mekong Subregion Countries During 2003-2015

For the past decade, smoke-haze pollution from forest fires and open burning has been a yearly recurring problem over Chiang Rai and other provinces in Upper Northern Thailand, along with other countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region. Remote-sensing active fire/ hotspot data are currently used for monitoring the forest fires and open burning in the sub-region. This study aimed to extend the current monitoring work by performing spatial and temporal analysis to examine the patterns, either globally or locally, of MODIS active fires/hotspots during the critical smoke-haze pollution periods from January to April in 2003-2015. Fire radiative power was used as a weight attribute for each active fire/hotspot. Administrative unit maps were used for aggregating data and creating spatial weight matrices. Results indicated that for all the years over the investigated period and based on detected locations, active fires/hotspots were overall clustered spatially across provincial, interprovincial, and international scales. Their density patterns were locally variable for each year, but the high concentrated zones, in terms of both fire counts and fire radiative powers, were consistently bounded in the hilly and mountainous areas, confirming that the forest fires and open burning problem keeps recurring in certain areas. When aggregated by administrative unit, the administrative boundaries with high active fires/hotspots, in terms of both fire counts and fire radiative powers, were spatially clustered, either globally or locally, but there was only an increasing trend of the clustering intensity in fire radiative powers, implying that the forest fires and open burning problem have become more severe in particular areas. These findings could be useful for further reviewing and strengthening current measures and plans of fire and smoke haze pollution management

Development and demonstration of a Lagrangian dispersion modeling system for real‐time prediction of smoke haze pollution from biomass burning in Southeast Asia

Abstract Transboundary smoke haze caused by biomass burning frequently causes extreme air pollution episodes in maritime and continental Southeast Asia. With millions of people being affected by this type of pollution every year, the task to introduce smoke haze related air quality forecasts is urgent. We investigate three severe haze episodes: June 2013 in Maritime SE Asia, induced by fires in central Sumatra, and March/April 2013 and 2014 on mainland SE Asia. Based on comparisons with surface measurements of PM10 we demonstrate that the combination of the Lagrangian dispersion model NAME with emissions derived from satellite‐based active‐fire detection provides reliable forecasts for the region. Contrasting two fire emission inventories shows that using algorithms to account for fire pixel obscuration by cloud or haze better captures the temporal variations and observed persistence of local pollution levels. Including up‐to‐date representations of fuel types in the area and using better conversion and emission factors is found to more accurately represent local concentration magnitudes, particularly for peat fires. With both emission inventories the overall spatial and temporal evolution of the haze events is captured qualitatively, with some error attributed to the resolution of the meteorological data driving the dispersion process. In order to arrive at a quantitative agreement with local PM10 levels, the simulation results need to be scaled. Considering the requirements of operational forecasts, we introduce a real‐time bias correction technique to the modeling system to address systematic and random modeling errors, which successfully improves the results in terms of reduced normalized mean biases and fractional gross errors

VALIDASI HOTSPOT MODIS DI WILAYAH SUMATERA DAN KALIMANTAN BERDASARKAN DATA PENGINDERAAN JAUH SPOT-4 TAHUN 2012 (MODIS HOTSPOT VALIDATION OVER SUMATERA AND KALIMANTAN BASED ON REMOTE SENSING DATA SPOT-4 IN 2012)

Indikator kebakaran hutan dan lahan dapat ditunjukkan dengan adanya hotspot dan asap kebakaran. Saat ini informasi hotspot sebagai indikator kebakaran hutan/ lahan sudah digunakan dengan baik oleh masyarakat, namun masih diragukan akurasi dari informasi tersebut. Oleh karena itu informasi tentang hotspot yang tervalidasi sangat dibutuhkan dalam upaya penanggulangan kebakaran hutan/lahan secara tepat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji akurasi titik hotspot dari beberapa sumber data, yaitu IndoFire Map Service (Indofire) dan Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). Validasi dilakukan dengan membandingkan data hotspot dengan kenampakan citra yang resolusinya lebih tinggi, yaitu SPOT-4. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa persentase hasil akurasi hostpot FIRMS sebesar 64% dengan tingkat Commision error dan Ommision error masing-masing 18%. Sedangkan persentase hasil akurasi hostpot Indofire ditemukan sebesar 42% dengan tingkat Commision error 20% dan Ommision error 38%. Analisis lebih lanjut di lahan gambut, telah diperoleh nilai akurasi hotspot Firms sebesar 66% dengan commision error 19% dan ommision error 15%, sedangkan hotspot Indofire ditemukan sebesar 46% dengan commision error 19% dan ommision error sekitar 35%. Nilai akurasi hotspot yang bersumber dari FIRMS lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan hotspot Indofire. Hal ini dapat disebabkan oleh penggunaan semua tingkat kepercayaan hotspot (confidence level) mulai dari 5 hingga 100% yang berbeda dengan Indofire (confidence level>80%). Tingginya nilai ommision error disebabkan oleh kabut asap tebal dan awan yang tidak bisa dideteksi oleh algoritma MODIS. Disamping itu, tingginya nilai ommision error disebabkan oleh kebakaran asap kecil yang dideteksi di SPOT-4 dan juga kebakaran yang baru terjadi yang ditandai oleh asap yang belum menyebar luas, namun hotspot tidak terpantau oleh satelit. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini dapat disimpulkan bahwa penggunaan semua confidence level hotspot perlu dipertimbangkan untuk digunakan khususnya pada lahan gambut dibandingkan hanya menggunakan yang lebih besar dari 80% saja.Kata kunci: Hotspot, MODIS, Confidence level, Indofire, FIRMS-NASA, Penginderaan jau

Fingerprint of rice paddies in spatial-temporal dynamics of atmospheric methane concentration in monsoon Asia.

Agriculture (e.g., rice paddies) has been considered one of the main emission sources responsible for the sudden rise of atmospheric methane concentration (XCH4) since 2007, but remains debated. Here we use satellite-based rice paddy and XCH4 data to investigate the spatial-temporal relationships between rice paddy area, rice plant growth, and XCH4 in monsoon Asia, which accounts for ~87% of the global rice area. We find strong spatial consistencies between rice paddy area and XCH4 and seasonal consistencies between rice plant growth and XCH4. Our results also show a decreasing trend in rice paddy area in monsoon Asia since 2007, which suggests that the change in rice paddy area could not be one of the major drivers for the renewed XCH4 growth, thus other sources and sinks should be further investigated. Our findings highlight the importance of satellite-based paddy rice datasets in understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of XCH4 in monsoon Asia

Detection and Characterization of Low Temperature Peat Fires during the 2015 Fire Catastrophe in Indonesia Using a New High-Sensitivity Fire Monitoring Satellite Sensor (FireBird)

Vast and disastrous fires occurred on Borneo during the 2015 dry season, pushing Indonesia into the top five carbon emitting countries. The region was affected by a very strong El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate phenomenon, on par with the last severe event in 1997/98. Fire dynamics in Central Kalimantan were investigated using an innovative sensor offering higher sensitivity to a wider range of fire intensities at a finer spatial resolution (160 m) than heretofore available. The sensor is onboard the TET-1 satellite, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) FireBird mission. TET-1 images (acquired every 2-3 days) from the middle infrared were used to detect fires continuously burning for almost three weeks in the protected peatlands of Sebangau National Park as well as surrounding areas with active logging and oil palm concessions. TET-1 detection capabilities were compared with MODIS active fire detection and Landsat burned area algorithms. Fire dynamics, including fire front propagation speed and area burned, were investigated. We show that TET-1 has improved detection capabilities over MODIS in monitoring low-intensity peatland fire fronts through thick smoke and haze. Analysis of fire dynamics revealed that the largest burned areas resulted from fire front lines started from multiple locations, and the highest propagation speeds were in excess of 500 m/day (all over peat > 2m deep). Fires were found to occur most often in concessions that contained drainage infrastructure but were not cleared prior to the fire season. Benefits of implementing this sensor system to improve current fire management techniques are discussed. Near real-time fire detection together with enhanced fire behavior monitoring capabilities would not only improve firefighting efforts, but also benefit analysis of fire impact on tropical peatlands, greenhouse gas emission estimations as well as mitigation measures to reduce severe fire events in the future