5,031 research outputs found
Randomized Algorithms for the Loop Cutset Problem
We show how to find a minimum weight loop cutset in a Bayesian network with
high probability. Finding such a loop cutset is the first step in the method of
conditioning for inference. Our randomized algorithm for finding a loop cutset
outputs a minimum loop cutset after O(c 6^k kn) steps with probability at least
1 - (1 - 1/(6^k))^c6^k, where c > 1 is a constant specified by the user, k is
the minimal size of a minimum weight loop cutset, and n is the number of
vertices. We also show empirically that a variant of this algorithm often finds
a loop cutset that is closer to the minimum weight loop cutset than the ones
found by the best deterministic algorithms known
Graphical models for marked point processes based on local independence
A new class of graphical models capturing the dependence structure of events
that occur in time is proposed. The graphs represent so-called local
independences, meaning that the intensities of certain types of events are
independent of some (but not necessarily all) events in the past. This dynamic
concept of independence is asymmetric, similar to Granger non-causality, so
that the corresponding local independence graphs differ considerably from
classical graphical models. Hence a new notion of graph separation, called
delta-separation, is introduced and implications for the underlying model as
well as for likelihood inference are explored. Benefits regarding facilitation
of reasoning about and understanding of dynamic dependencies as well as
computational simplifications are discussed.Comment: To appear in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series
Graphical Markov models, unifying results and their interpretation
Graphical Markov models combine conditional independence constraints with
graphical representations of stepwise data generating processes.The models
started to be formulated about 40 years ago and vigorous development is
ongoing. Longitudinal observational studies as well as intervention studies are
best modeled via a subclass called regression graph models and, especially
traceable regressions. Regression graphs include two types of undirected graph
and directed acyclic graphs in ordered sequences of joint responses. Response
components may correspond to discrete or continuous random variables and may
depend exclusively on variables which have been generated earlier. These
aspects are essential when causal hypothesis are the motivation for the
planning of empirical studies.
To turn the graphs into useful tools for tracing developmental pathways and
for predicting structure in alternative models, the generated distributions
have to mimic some properties of joint Gaussian distributions. Here, relevant
results concerning these aspects are spelled out and illustrated by examples.
With regression graph models, it becomes feasible, for the first time, to
derive structural effects of (1) ignoring some of the variables, of (2)
selecting subpopulations via fixed levels of some other variables or of (3)
changing the order in which the variables might get generated. Thus, the most
important future applications of these models will aim at the best possible
integration of knowledge from related studies.Comment: 34 Pages, 11 figures, 1 tabl
Concepts and a case study for a flexible class of graphical Markov models
With graphical Markov models, one can investigate complex dependences,
summarize some results of statistical analyses with graphs and use these graphs
to understand implications of well-fitting models. The models have a rich
history and form an area that has been intensively studied and developed in
recent years. We give a brief review of the main concepts and describe in more
detail a flexible subclass of models, called traceable regressions. These are
sequences of joint response regressions for which regression graphs permit one
to trace and thereby understand pathways of dependence. We use these methods to
reanalyze and interpret data from a prospective study of child development, now
known as the Mannheim Study of Children at Risk. The two related primary
features concern cognitive and motor development, at the age of 4.5 and 8 years
of a child. Deficits in these features form a sequence of joint responses.
Several possible risks are assessed at birth of the child and when the child
reached age 3 months and 2 years.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, 7 tables; invited, refereed chapter in a boo
Constraint-based Causal Discovery for Non-Linear Structural Causal Models with Cycles and Latent Confounders
We address the problem of causal discovery from data, making use of the
recently proposed causal modeling framework of modular structural causal models
(mSCM) to handle cycles, latent confounders and non-linearities. We introduce
{\sigma}-connection graphs ({\sigma}-CG), a new class of mixed graphs
(containing undirected, bidirected and directed edges) with additional
structure, and extend the concept of {\sigma}-separation, the appropriate
generalization of the well-known notion of d-separation in this setting, to
apply to {\sigma}-CGs. We prove the closedness of {\sigma}-separation under
marginalisation and conditioning and exploit this to implement a test of
{\sigma}-separation on a {\sigma}-CG. This then leads us to the first causal
discovery algorithm that can handle non-linear functional relations, latent
confounders, cyclic causal relationships, and data from different (stochastic)
perfect interventions. As a proof of concept, we show on synthetic data how
well the algorithm recovers features of the causal graph of modular structural
causal models.Comment: Accepted for publication in Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial
Intelligence 201
Graphical Markov models: overview
We describe how graphical Markov models started to emerge in the last 40
years, based on three essential concepts that had been developed independently
more than a century ago. Sequences of joint or single regressions and their
regression graphs are singled out as being best suited for analyzing
longitudinal data and for tracing developmental pathways. Interpretations are
illustrated using two sets of data and some of the more recent, important
results for sequences of regressions are summarized.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figure
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